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OT: World Politics

Domestic Russian propaganda to explain why Prigozhin's head isn't on a pike out front of the Kremlin when in reality he's flatly refusing to give up Wagner despite Putin insisting he do so in a face to face meeting last week.

www.theguardian.com

Putin says he tried but failed to oust Prigozhin after Wagner mutiny

President tells newspaper he met mercenary chief to negotiate terms for fighters’ continued participation in Ukraine war
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

So the Russian book of public propaganda now dictates that they have to project strength to change the narrative. So they're going to talk about Nato a lot and make threats they have no way of backing up.
 
Oh fuck....maybe, to be confirmed.

Allegedly the Kerch bridge has been hit again and is "down". According the Grey Zone, which is a pretty well known Wagner mouthpiece. All over Russian telegram right now, happened like 10 minutes ago.
 
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Stinky said:
thanks for allowing my hyperbolic response
Click to expand...


I think we can all agree that we’d like as little harm as possible to come to innocent civilians during war.

But if your nation is engaged in an active genocidal, imperial war of conquest against its neighbour, and you decide that some of that neighbour’s occupied territory would be a sweet spot for a vacation, or a nice place to move to and grab some cheap real estate…well, it’s debatable to me whether you still count as a “civilian”.

And either way I certainly stop giving a single solitary fuck if any harm befalls you while you’re there.
 
LeafGm said:
I think we can all agree that we’d like as little harm as possible to come to innocent civilians during war.

But if your nation is engaged in an active genocidal, imperial war of conquest against its neighbour, and you decide that some of that neighbour’s occupied territory would be a sweet spot for a vacation, or a nice place to move to and grab some cheap real estate…well, it’s debatable to me whether you still count as a “civilian”.

And either way I certainly stop giving a single solitary fuck if any harm befalls you while you’re there.
Click to expand...
kill them all and let God sort them out.
 
Something I'm not seeing mentioned in the Kerch bridge news is what this means in the broader scope of Russian logistics. This attack didn't happen in a vacuum, there were attacks blowing up Rikove (an ammo dump at an industrial rail terminal) and the Chongar bridge recently as well.

This is kind of important. There's now only one functioning way into and out of Crimea and it goes through Melitopol. It turns what was a 250km direct supply route between Melitopol and Sevastopol, over relatively well kept roads/highways to a 400km fuck about through Kherson oblast that has a key junction 11km from Nova Khakova and a rapidly drying shoreline of the Dnipro. The Russians were already in tough to move what used to go by rail between Crimea and Melitopol, by truck instead.

Russia is really dependent on rail for logistics and it basically works like this:

Tokmak in ZAP is connected by rail to Melitopol to the south and Berdyansk to the east. The line ends at Berdyansk and doesn't run through towards Mariupol or the Donbas. Melitopol was then connected to Crimea further south but the line passed through Rikove where the Ukies just smashed an arms dump and shut down the rail line. The Chongar bridge was the most direct driving route (and one of only 3 onto and off of crimea in total) and it got smeshed a few weeks ago. So that leaves no rail connection to bring supplies through Crimea to get to Melitopol (and through there to the Tokmak front via rail).

Basically, the Russians can supply Mariupol, Donetsk, Luhansk and that entire region by rail, but they're fucked in the south. If the Ukies take Tokmak, Berdyansk can only be supplied by truck. If they push out through Nova Khakova and take the highway junction, Crimea can't be supplied at all aside from by boat.
 
I remember when the general consensus was that if this turned into a war of attrition, Ukraine couldn't win. I think that's going to end up being perfectly wrong. It's a war of attrition that Russia can't win. People were way too fixated on Russian artillery advantages at the time, and not enough attention was being given to the Trent Telenko view of warfare.
 
oh, and the Russians got whomped today in Kreminna when they tried to go on the offensive. They really want Lyman back for logistics purposes.

 
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