• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

OT: World Politics


View: https://x.com/academic_la/status/1796278725220426195

Egypt finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The al-Sisi government is concerned that internal demonstrations against what is perceived as a pro-Israeli position among many Egyptian citizens could endanger the stability of the regime. The Wall Street Journal reports officials are worried that "the Gaza war could stir up a popular revolt in the Middle East’s most populous country. Already, several small pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Egypt have heightened fears among security officials that the public discontent could eventually turn against the government.

"In the funeral of one of the Egyptian soldiers killed by Israel in an accidental fire exchange, "an imam led a crowd in prayers against what he called 'Zionist traitors' and in support of the 'mujahedeen of Palestine,' according to a recording of a livestream of the funeral."

These pressures cannot be understood in isolation from the country's difficult economic concerns. Recently, the country "announced an increase in subsidized bread prices and devalued its currency, measures that have hit working-class and poor Egyptians hard."

The capture of the Rafah Crossing by Israel and the death of two Egyptian soldiers in an accidental border skirmish, as well as reports that Egypt is sabotaging talks and allowing tunnels in its territory, are "humiliating for Egypt." However, Egypt is reliant on the US for its arms and the EU for much of its economy. Therefore, war is not an option. The WSJ reports, "Despite some veiled threats, Egypt has ruled out military action against Israel for now and opted for what officials are calling a containment strategy designed to increase pressure on Israel gradually.

"What they are doing now is declining to bring in aid through Rafah and joining the ICJ case against Israel. If that fails, the WSJ says, "the government would freeze relations with Israel entirely, according to Egyptian officials.

"The US will hold trilateral meetings with Egypt and Israel to try to resolve the tensions over Rafah and between the two countries in general. According to Axios, "Biden told Sisi that if the delivery of aid trucks wasn't resumed, the U.S. would publicly criticize Egypt for it." So, the US is putting pressure on Egypt to be more cooperative. The chance that this war will erode Israel and the US's greatest ever foreign policy success in the Middle East, the 1979 Peace agreement, is not one they are willing to take.
Click to expand...
 
I figure Jordan might have a similar issue, though maybe less severe.

The US and the EU need to step up. al Sisi toppled the Muslim Brotherhood government, much to their pleasure I’m sure, and now his regime is riding the tiger. I know they give a lot of aid already, but they may want to pay it forward here coz the alternative is not in their interest.
 
lecoqsportif said:
I figure Jordan might have a similar issue, though maybe less severe.

The US and the EU need to step up. al Sisi toppled the Muslim Brotherhood government, much to their pleasure I’m sure, and now his regime is riding the tiger. I know they give a lot of aid already, but they may want to pay it forward here coz the alternative is not in their interest.
Click to expand...
One of Jordan’s potential issues/flashpoints is that I believe a majority of their population (or close to it) is of Palestinian descent and pretty strongly anti-peaceful coexistence with Israel. Definitely an issue to keep an eye on
 
Wayward DP said:
One of Jordan’s potential issues/flashpoints is that I believe a majority of their population (or close to it) is of Palestinian descent and pretty strongly anti-peaceful coexistence with Israel. Definitely an issue to keep an eye on
Click to expand...

And their ruling class are in the French Riviera/Milan-fashion set, educated at Sandhurst and the Ivies. I don’t like the long term prospects to begin with.
 
axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/Telegraph/status/1796910062637629859?t=uhggXwMk-i_F907lerUKeQ&s=19
Click to expand...


I don't know how far Vlad wants to push a non Trump POTUS on what is and isn't worth more aggressive participation. Article 5 isn't necessarily an on/off switch. It's a red line promise to their allies that the US won't allow adversaries to go beyond without war. There is nothing keeping the US from getting much more engaged way, way before article 5 is actually triggered.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top