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OT: World Politics

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"Legal jeopardy"
 

View: https://x.com/academic_la/status/1797635855093584218

The chances for a ceasefire do not look good. Why? Most of the leadership of Israel and Hamas want one, as does just about the entire international community. But Netanyahu and Sinwar do not. And ultimately, they call the shots.

Regarding Sinwar, according to the Wall Street Journal: "Hamas’s chief in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is in no hurry to end the war, believing that it is drawing Israel into a quagmire that is turning the country into an international pariah while reviving the Palestinian national cause, according to messages Sinwar has sent to mediators from Arab states. Hamas’s political leaders in exile, however, are eager to end the war provided a deal guarantees the group’s survival and grants it a continued role in governing Gaza."

As for Netanyahu, he gave a public statement saying, "We are working in countless ways to bring back our hostages. I think about them all the time. About their families. About their suffering. That is why we want to bring them back so far. But while doing so, we have insisted on the goals of the war, including eliminating Hamas. We are insisting we will do this and that."

Neither leader wants this deal. Therefore, it seems likely that these two will continue to fight, even while everyone around them wants this nightmare to end.
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axlsalinger said:

View: https://x.com/ettingermentum/status/1797616885854585074
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Not surprised. AMLO was extremely popular in a lot of poor rural communities (he implemented a seniors pension that has been a massive help in a lot of rural communities) and at least attempted to do shit in parts of the country that are generally ignored by the political elite in the DF bubble. Tren Maya probably the best known of those programs (which has it's own mexican style graft and heavy handed authoritarian issues, but still)

Sheinbaum has marketed herself as a gentler version of AMLO (he's a bit of a combative dickhead). This is very much a vote for the status quo which makes sense as the Mexican economy is booming and is probably geared for a pretty epic 10+ year run if they don't fuck it up. The Cartel issue is one that none of the parties really have an answer for and any middle-right coalition in Mexico (which is what Galvez representated) has to live with the legacy of Calderon's war declaration that has gone really poorly. Morena's stance of the cartels has been made fun of a fair bit, but at it's core they realize that developing the economically depressed rural regions of the country are the best way to combat the cartels on a generational basis.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Long-term and widely shared economic growth is the surest way undermine the cartels.

We’ll see if the oligarchic class is down with that.
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The support of Morena is basically a unified middle finger to the oligarch class. The PRI/PAN alliance is what's left of the old structure and there's a further left party that picked up support from Morena over the course of the election (Movimiento Ciudadano - MC) and if Morena doesn't continue to advance some popular causes (increased minimum wages, expansion of seniors pensions, etc), they'll bleed more support to MC and not to PRI/PAN imo. Biggest thing to keep an eye on is whether or not the attacks on the autonomy of the supreme court and the department of election were AMLO driven or Morena driven. If they were Morena driven and Sheinbaum continues them, expect big protests and the MC to gain support quickly.
 
also lost in all the Rafah focus is that Hezbollah has upped the scope and scale of attacks in Israel's north...


View: https://x.com/FDD/status/1797991777598623954

“Hezbollah has noticeably escalated the frequency, destructiveness, and range of its attacks since early May — emboldened to shift into this more aggressive posture by demonstrable constraints on Israel’s freedom of action by the international community. The group believes it can strike harder at Israel with relative impunity, virtually guaranteed that the global mood will keep Israeli responses contained.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“It’s hardly surprising that Hezbollah is intensifying its pressure on Israel given the mounting international pressure on the Jewish State to cease its military operations in Gaza and allow Hamas to maintain its grip on power. Hezbollah is also aware that the international community’s scrutiny of Israel is partly in response to its ongoing cross-border attacks, which have persisted for over seven months. With this in mind, it’s clear that Hezbollah believes its actions in the north are achieving their desired outcomes.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
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