Yuge thread on the Russian economy. Ability to sell bonds, interest rates, inflation, etc
View: https://x.com/Prune602/status/1824170415029358714
TLDR:
- Current Key Rate is 18%, so debt is crazy expensive. For comparison, Mexico is a similar sized population with a similarish sized economy and the BoM rate is currently 10.75%
- Despite the sky high interest rate, inflation is at 9.1%.
- They're attempting to sell 1.5 Trillion rubles worth of bonds on their bond market in Q3 alone, but the highest daily subscription levels they've had this year are about half of target levels (about 1.1 billion USD per day) and that recently cratered when they stopped offering....variable rate....bonds. Over the last 14 weeks combined, they've placed a total of 390 billion rubles (4.4 Billion USD) and that's while interest rates have shot through the roof, taking bond yields with them. Nobody wants their debt....at 15-16-17% interest. Again with the Mexico comparison, the Mexican 5yr is 9.8%
- They're cutting civil service jobs to cut government costs
- The Russian central bank has been quietly warning about a consumer debt crisis (which at 18% interest makes sense...)
- Mortgage rates have recently been moved to....20.8%, while at the same time home buyer subsidies have quietly been yanked.
Everything always looks like it's going to last forever right up until the day it all breaks.