OT: World Politics
- Thread starter zeke
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Europe is waking up
View: https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3ligx4iseic2h
They might actually be putting action to what has been a known thing for the last 2+ years. There is no cheaper way, in blood or treasure, to protect Europe than to simply give the Ukrainians what they need to do the job. Spend 700B now in Ukraine, or a few Trillion later protecting Romania, Hungary, Finland, Slovaki, the Baltics, and Poland.
If this comes in conjunction with UK + EU nations putting boots on the ground at the Belarus border (Kherson as been mentioned as well) so that the Ukrainians can rotate their troops more often, this could be massive. For clarity, 700 Billion Euro would be about 6-7x what the US has delivered (not pledged, delivered) to Ukraine so far since the start of the war.
The Americans would have to legitimately bail out Russia to save their economy from cratering later this year. It's on fumes.
View: https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3ligx4iseic2h
They might actually be putting action to what has been a known thing for the last 2+ years. There is no cheaper way, in blood or treasure, to protect Europe than to simply give the Ukrainians what they need to do the job. Spend 700B now in Ukraine, or a few Trillion later protecting Romania, Hungary, Finland, Slovaki, the Baltics, and Poland.
If this comes in conjunction with UK + EU nations putting boots on the ground at the Belarus border (Kherson as been mentioned as well) so that the Ukrainians can rotate their troops more often, this could be massive. For clarity, 700 Billion Euro would be about 6-7x what the US has delivered (not pledged, delivered) to Ukraine so far since the start of the war.
The Americans would have to legitimately bail out Russia to save their economy from cratering later this year. It's on fumes.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Fwiw:
If Europe more or less goes this alone, Trump pulls back (or ffs, pivots to assisting Russia in any way at all) and/or leaves Nato, those bases will be shuttered shortly thereafter.
Forget a loss in soft power that has been spoken about, that's an insane loss in hard power projection we're likely to see in the next few years.
If Europe more or less goes this alone, Trump pulls back (or ffs, pivots to assisting Russia in any way at all) and/or leaves Nato, those bases will be shuttered shortly thereafter.
Forget a loss in soft power that has been spoken about, that's an insane loss in hard power projection we're likely to see in the next few years.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
If you want to see the impact of propaganda on a population, polling out of Russia from last week:
- 70% of Russians believe the "special operation" has been successful. Up from 57% in 2023.
- Among those who say that they get their news from state run media, that number is 84%
Now, it's easy to look at that and be a bit discouraged, but personally I never expected help to come from inside of Russia. What I actually see here is the answer to a question some people were concerned about a year or more ago when there was talks of Putin needing an "off ramp". At the time I remember saying that he didn't need one because the Russian populace will believe what he tells them to believe, and here we are, one public opinion off ramp built by Putin, for Putin, with no help needed from anyone in the US or Europe that were worried about it. He's in a position to cut a deal if he needs to, proclaim success and 70%+ of the population will show up to the victory parade he throws.
- 70% of Russians believe the "special operation" has been successful. Up from 57% in 2023.
- Among those who say that they get their news from state run media, that number is 84%
Now, it's easy to look at that and be a bit discouraged, but personally I never expected help to come from inside of Russia. What I actually see here is the answer to a question some people were concerned about a year or more ago when there was talks of Putin needing an "off ramp". At the time I remember saying that he didn't need one because the Russian populace will believe what he tells them to believe, and here we are, one public opinion off ramp built by Putin, for Putin, with no help needed from anyone in the US or Europe that were worried about it. He's in a position to cut a deal if he needs to, proclaim success and 70%+ of the population will show up to the victory parade he throws.
Aberdeen
Well-known member
I wonder how much overt backing of Russia Trump can get away with. Probably a lot unfortunately. Can't straight up fund them, but can just give them them shit in other ways.Fwiw:
If Europe more or less goes this alone, Trump pulls back (or ffs, pivots to assisting Russia in any way at all) and/or leaves Nato, those bases will be shuttered shortly thereafter.
Forget a loss in soft power that has been spoken about, that's an insane loss in hard power projection we're likely to see in the next few years.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I think we're in the early stages of finding out.
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou
I will get banned again soon, worry not.
Yep, and we can start by conscripting Count's kid.
lecoqsportif
Well-known member
nor work around Wehave's belly
zeke
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
"without the loss of much land"
lol, ffs. Yes Donnie, all it would have taken is giving Putin a smidge of land and this would have been sorted.
Cal Gal
Active member
Lydia Chávez, Mission Local founder/head ed, runs a pretty darned good local online rag. Here's a sample of Venezuelan concerns in the SF Mish:
"Over the last few weeks, Ever Chacon, a Venezuelan national who has been in the United States for two years, has barely slept. Every night, he worries about President Donald Trump’s determination to rid the country of newly arrived immigrants like him."
missionlocal.org
"Over the last few weeks, Ever Chacon, a Venezuelan national who has been in the United States for two years, has barely slept. Every night, he worries about President Donald Trump’s determination to rid the country of newly arrived immigrants like him."
As Trump clamps down on Venezuelan immigrants, all fear they could be next
There are hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans whose legal status is vanishing. 'I live in distress. I dream that I'm being deported.'
missionlocal.org
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Ukraine’s territorial integrity is nonnegotiable for Turkey, Erdoğan says - Turkish Minute
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Tuesday that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are nonnegotiable for Turkey, as Ankara positions itself as a potential host for talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency reported.
www.turkishminute.com
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Cal Gal
Active member
"The Americans would have to legitimately bail out Russia to save their economy from cratering later this year. It's on fumes."
Now that "Tranny Don" and Elmo are en route to compromising SSI, along with any number of other US "purses," crater might be softly padded.
zeke
Well-known member
Ukraine’s territorial integrity is nonnegotiable for Turkey, Erdoğan says - Turkish Minute
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Tuesday that Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are nonnegotiable for Turkey, as Ankara positions itself as a potential host for talks between Russia, Ukraine and the United States. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency reported.
View attachment 24391
poor edrogan thought trump would help him against russia.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Aside from lifting sanctions, I'm not sure what mechanisms are even politically achievable for Trump here. He's on his way to being an autocrat but isn't there yet. Not to the point where directly aiding Russia financially is something he could get away with. So, I don't think a big ass e-transfer from Donnie is on it's way in the near future.
imo the likeliest bad outcome here is Donnie announces that he's reached a deal with Putin that is basically everything from Putin's original demands list (no Nato, no EU, no zelensky with immediate elections to replace him with a moscow friendly puppet, a bunch of land ceded that they haven't actually won in Zap and Kharkiv oblasts, etc) but with a bunch of American repayment demands/reparations thrown in there. Zelensky pisses on the deal and Don uses that as an excuse to cancel all aid, lift all sanctions on Russia, threaten the EU with tariffs if they aid Ukraine, etc.
Not so much "direct" aid to Russia, but an obvious attempt to force a re organization of the board where Ukraine is actually by itself with no help and locked in a room with Russia and only Russia.
It won't go down that way (I don't see the EU/UK abandoning Ukraine, they know this is existential to Europe), but that's the way Putin is drawing it up.