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OT: World Politics

Cal Gal said:
Theoretical (?) order of the realignment steps would be killer. đź‘Ť
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Not so much purely theoretical as it is a very well connected Brit putting some pieces together of things he's seen and heard that involves people he knows well (Carney, Starmer, various EU economists and politicians)

The order kind of sorts itself out in his version of events. The heavy lifting is getting us a good enough deal with the EU that 1) it doesn't take the wind out of his sails here & 2) The Brits want more or less the same deal once they've seen it. Once your have your 26-27 Trillion dollar free trade group together, go shopping for friends. Access to powerful friends and free markets are kind of in high demand right now. There would be a lineup of traditionally (EU & Commonwealth) aligned countries interested in seeing if they can work out a deal.
 
MindzEye said:
So....was watching a UK podcast that had the British economist/journalist Will Hutton, who knows Carney very well from Carney's time at BoE and he's under the impression that Carney is trying to do something a bit more ambitious than is being discussed here in Canada (because honestly, we never think big about anything). He thinks Carney is trying to get us as deep into the European customs union as possible, and get the deal done asap. Then using that as a bridge to help the UK get one foot back into the continent by giving them the same deal we get. Then working with the leadership of our fancy new new ~25T free trade block and using it's gravity to bring Australia/NZ, Japan, India and anyone else aligned (I'm editorializing here, but SK, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria would all make sense) into it.

Basically re aligning world trade through our block of democratic allies before turning to cut a bilateral trade deal with China and then finally, dealing with numbnuts to the south of us as a unified group of economies that make up ~50-60% of the world's economy.

This would definitely cast Carney's recent "then Canada will lead" line in a different light and makes his trip to Europe potentially about more than just throwing up middle fingers at Washington.
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Carney has definitely alluded to wanting Canada to "lead the free world" and I admire his ambition - if the above is true. I understand he needs to get his ducks in-a-row but I hope he goes public with these goals at some point. They just "sound right" and would be popular IMO.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Can he get something done before the 28th?
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It’s possible. He did get that radar deal locked in with the Aussies, for example.

But I’d still be a bit surprised if he tried to get many more official agreements locked in before the 28th. No matter how favourable the polls may be looking, it really is better for him to get a mandate before making any more structural changes.
 
Governments don’t do much during the writ period and obviously nothing that requires cabinet considering or any type of legislation.

This is part of what is so transparently laughable about Trump talking about doing trade deals by Wednesday or in 90 days or whatever. Trade deals take years to negotiate and implement, and countries have domestic legal processes that need to be folllowed.

There’s an opportunity here for Canada to be a major player in designing the new rules-based international order. PP wouldn’t even know where to start.
 
manny said:
Governments don’t do much during the writ period and obviously nothing that requires cabinet considering or any type of legislation.

This is part of what is so transparently laughable about Trump talking about doing trade deals by Wednesday or in 90 days or whatever. Trade deals take years to negotiate and implement, and countries have domestic legal processes that need to be folllowed.

There’s an opportunity here for Canada to be a major player in designing the new rules-based international order. PP wouldn’t even know where to start.
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Not to mention, the other person signing any possible deal has a well known history of reneging on written contracts.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Depends how far they want to go with this, but it could get super ugly. No one should underestimate the cartels’ ability and intent to hit back, including in the US.
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Honestly, I think the cartel would be more than happy with going underground and playing whack a mole. They'll do the same thing to the Americans that they do when the Mexican military starts getting close. Go underground in urban areas where they have support, and dribble information out that is meant to be found out and they leave a few clandestine "labs" (huts in the mountain with a few bins of chemicals) to be raided.

I've said this a bunch of times recently, but the cartels just aren't the type of operations that will suffer from clapping a few faction bosses. These aren't top down organizations anymore, they're a massive collection of isolated sub contractors/service providers (chemists, mules, coyotes, growers, etc) who aren't actual cartel members, working underneath another shifting layer of factions within the larger organizations. Clip a few faction leaders and they'll replace them from the inside their factions. Wipe out an entire faction's leadership base and another faction will absorb what's left of the soldiers and earners, then just run the former factions business lines themselves. An entire successful elimination op that probably took months to plan and execute would be a delay of a few weeks at the most before it was business as usual.
 
Cal Gal said:

Trump administration weighs drone strikes on Mexican cartels​

www.yahoo.com

Trump administration weighs drone strikes on Mexican cartels

The administration is looking at possible strikes against the cartels as it gears up for a major campaign against gangs trafficking narcotics over the border
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
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More interested if Mexico defense will shoot down American planes or drones. Will be a crazy conflict as would assume trump will want to full on bomb Mexico in retaliation for Mexico defending its borders.

Canada needs to note what USA does here as it won’t be too long until trump tries to find a reason to come after Canada for the fake drug dealers etc that he’s been making up. Then start to build up as much defense as possible to be able to withstand how the states attack Mexico.
 
soco22 said:
More interested if Mexico defense will shoot down American planes or drones. Will be a crazy conflict as would assume trump will want to full on bomb Mexico in retaliation for Mexico defending its borders.

Canada needs to note what USA does here as it won’t be too long until trump tries to find a reason to come after Canada for the fake drug dealers etc that he’s been making up. Then start to build up as much defense as possible to be able to withstand how the states attack Mexico.
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I don't think Mexico has the capacity to shoot down a reaper tbh. Their airforce is mostly transport and surveillance oriented. Have to remember, the majority of Mexican defence spending for the last ~50 years has been to deal with internal problems that in western countries would be within the scope of federal police agencies. So they've really only invested in patrol and surveillance aircraft. The other thing they have, because Mexico is so mountainous is transport capabilities to move a decent amount of troops around a big country pretty quickly without using their road networks for long distance travel.

But the type of fighter aircraft or radar/missile defence networks necessary to clap Reaper drone? Nah. The Navy might have some ship based systems that could do it if the incursion was close enough to the coast, but other than that...fucked.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't think Mexico has the capacity to shoot down a reaper tbh. Their airforce is mostly transport and surveillance oriented. Have to remember, the majority of Mexican defence spending for the last ~50 years has been to deal with internal problems that in western countries would be within the scope of federal police agencies. So they've really only invested in patrol and surveillance aircraft. The other thing they have, because Mexico is so mountainous is transport capabilities to move a decent amount of troops around a big country pretty quickly without using their road networks for long distance travel.

But the type of fighter aircraft or radar/missile defence networks necessary to clap Reaper drone? Nah. The Navy might have some ship based systems that could do it if the incursion was close enough to the coast, but other than that...fucked.
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Ok, good theory to think about if they have the ability to what would happen.
 
soco22 said:
Ok, good theory to think about if they have the ability to what would happen.
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They would defend their airspace and force the US to enter into joint operations with them if the US was so insistent on doing this.

Though I do want to clarify something. Reaper's aren't stealth, so would be picked up by Mexican radar without a problem and can be targeted and brought down by handheld anti air systems (Manpad, stingers, starstreak, etc). But those have pretty limited range and aren't integrated with the radar systems. So in theory, the mexicans could order a bunch of manpads and put dudes in trucks at various points and then call it in, have the boots on ground visually identify the Reaper and fire off handheld anti air systems at it. The Houthi's have brought down a few Reapers recently just like this, so it's not beyond the Mexicans to do the same. What I was referring to is that the Mexicans lack the integrated air defence that we're seeing in Ukraine, where air defence radar identifies drone, and either targets it directly and fires ordinance to destroy it, or that radar system communicates directly with scrambled modern aircraft (F-16's are real gud in this role) to fire other modern short or medium range air to air missiles at the drone. The Mexicans can't really do that, they don't have the fighter aircraft for it.
 
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