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OT: World Politics

Aberdeen said:
I checked out the thread. Don't understand any of it. But he sounds smart. Hope he's right. Makes sense that Putin can only fudge the numbers for so long before cracks start to add up.
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Am not an economist but I read one of Paul Krugman's books years ago so I'm qualified to TLDR this

- Russian corporations have loaded up on debt in 2024 (probably a signal that the domestic market has tanked and international sanctions are working to choke off their exports) and the coupon (interest payment) is due monthly or quarterly. So if you bought a debt issuance from farm equipment manufacturer Ivan Deerskov at 15% interest, they would pay out your interest on that bond monthly or quarterly.

- Many of these bonds are likely to go into default because the companies that issued them have seen revenues tumble, and these bonds are owned mostly by Russian banks, financial institutions, pension funds, and insurance companies. The bonds were issued mostly by companies in industries that actually make things (Wood & Paper, industrial, agriculture, etc). When the bonds default, the companies that issued them will try to refinance them, but in an interest rate environment that has gone from bad when they originally issued the bonds to fucking catastrophic. If the Russian government can't get bond buyers at 20% while offering variable bond rates, what chance does Ivan Deereskov have to get refinancing for anything less than Italian Gentleman's Club rates, if there's any available at all? Can't pay your bonds, you're bankrupt. Company goes tits up, workers are without a job. Now do this to massive chunks of entire industries that make things that are entirely necessary to do boring shit like grow food.
 
LeafGm said:
I still remember the optimistic forecasts about how quickly the war, sanctions and being disconnected from the international banking system would collapse the Russian economy back in 2022.

So forgive me if I don’t get too excited about these latest breathless reports.
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Fair, but if the Russians didn't completely re organize their economy as a war economy to buy themselves time before it collapsed, it would have. Capital controls can only go so far. They basically barred the door and have tried to cycle the same money over and over within the economy. It will work for a while, but eventually the bleeding will kill the patient.

Also, it's "friends" in New Delhi and Beijing stepped in to help them circumvent shit wherever they could to inject new money. They took advantage of Putin at every turn, but kept pumping money into Russia regardless. Never enough to do more than buy a bit more time though.

Fwiw, the internal chatter in Russia has pretty consistently been that this can be kept up until mid 2025 before the wheels fall off.
 
AP79 said:
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Pure theatre. It's a multiple warhead ICBM, that's it, that's all. The nature of ICBM's make them incredibly difficult to intercept, but they're also crazy expensive per unit with a limited payload. There's less bang in one of those than there is in the glidebombs they started using earlier this year but that the F16's are making far more difficult for Russian aviation to get into range for.
 
MindzEye said:
Fair, but if the Russians didn't completely re organize their economy as a war economy to buy themselves time before it collapsed, it would have. Capital controls can only go so far. They basically barred the door and have tried to cycle the same money over and over within the economy. It will work for a while, but eventually the bleeding will kill the patient.

Also, it's "friends" in New Delhi and Beijing stepped in to help them circumvent shit wherever they could to inject new money. They took advantage of Putin at every turn, but kept pumping money into Russia regardless. Never enough to do more than buy a bit more time though.

Fwiw, the internal chatter in Russia has pretty consistently been that this can be kept up until mid 2025 before the wheels fall off.
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But by mid-2025 the US sanctions will have been lifted by Trump so once again the bad guys are going to come out on top because "the price of eggs".
 
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