The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

[Preston]

Yeah, I'm still feeling a little burnt by the Marleau deal. As we all should tbh.

I'm over giving anyone term on the back 9 if it risks future cap structure and assets. If JT loses a step at the same time Muzzin loses a step, that could be an ugly 16 million dollars on the ledger at a time we're trying to sign Sandin, Robertson, Lilly, re sign Mo, etc.

Marleau was a clearly declining player by all metrics who was really just an okish 2nd liner at best if we use production, and a 3rd liner if we delve into nerd shit. Jake Muzzin is a legitimate top pair defensman. These are very different scenarios.

I'm with you as a whole. But there are exceptions to these rules too.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

How is he a top pair dman when he produces nothing offensively? If you’re a ghost on one end of the ice, no matter how good you might be at the other, you’re no more than a second pair guy. And four years from now....

 

[Preston]

And four years from now....

This is what people get hung up on. I get it. He may suck dick in 4 years. But the purpose of signing an aging player is to get him at a discount in the top end of the contract. If you don't think that 5 mil is a discount to the current version of Muzzin then I understand your concern. Personally, I think that contract is far less likely to bite them than a 7 year Pietroangelo one.

 

[Artnes]

That’s why he leaves a bad taste, but it’s not why he’s not my kind of player. I’m legit terrified of him in the playoffs. Every single game he’ll make a few really dumb plays that lead to turnovers and then he’s gassed and can’t do anything about it or he heads to the bench and let’s someone else rush to the defensive zone to try to clean up his mess. I’m so scared he’s going to make a series turning gaffe. Same with Barrie. I have zero trust in those two.

0.6 turnovers per game. Not a thing

 

[MindzEye]

Raps this year can’t compare to this.

Everyone other than OG, Boucher, and Davis has missed significant time. 10 different players have started a game for the Raptors this season and 18 players in total have suited up.

Leafs have lost about 135 man games to injury and rank 12th in the NHL in man games lost
Raptors have lost 160 man games to injury on a roster half the size and rank 5th in the NBA

You've got it backwards. What the Leafs are going through doesn't compare to what the Raptors have gone through.

 

[MindzEye]

This is what people get hung up on. I get it. He may suck dick in 4 years. But the purpose of signing an aging player is to get him at a discount in the top end of the contract. If you don't think that 5 mil is a discount to the current version of Muzzin then I understand your concern. Personally, I think that contract is far less likely to bite them than a 7 year Pietroangelo one.

Yeah, I have to disagree with almost all of this. It's like you learned nothing from the Marleau fiasco. As for AP v Muzzin. I expect AP to age much more gracefully than Muzzin. Much better skater, starting from a much higher talent/impact level.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

0.6 turnovers per game. Not a thing

When you take a dumb shot and it goes around the boards to the other side and starts a breakout, that’s not a turnover. When you make a stupid pass into the skates of a teammate who can’t handle it, that’s not a turnover for him. I mean, it’s the most obvious glaring shit every single game. It’s hilarious that no one else sees it.

 

[MindzEye]

Marleau was a clearly declining player by all metrics who was really just an okish 2nd liner at best if we use production, and a 3rd liner if we delve into nerd shit. Jake Muzzin is a legitimate top pair defensman. These are very different scenarios.

I'm with you as a whole. But there are exceptions to these rules too.

I don't think they're as different as you want them to be. Marleau had started on the downslope of his aging curve and we signed him 1 yr longer than was smart to do so. Had that been a 2 year deal, it would have worked out fine. Muzzin is very likely on the edge of his aging curve (given age, injuries, skating ability, etc) and a 2-3 yr deal would probably work out fine. 4 years will definitely put us in at the minimum a Robidas island situation. That's a lot of almost definite downside to manage.

 

[Artnes]

LeBrun guessing 4 x 5.5 for Muzzin

 

[zeke]

skating didn't help marleau age gracefully. in fact, the more skill/speed based players might age more ungracefully. and AP will cost like twice as much, for twice as long.

and Muzzin is like 7 years younger than marleau was.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Everyone other than OG, Boucher, and Davis has missed significant time. 10 different players have started a game for the Raptors this season and 18 players in total have suited up.

Leafs have lost about 135 man games to injury and rank 12th in the NHL in man games lost
Raptors have lost 160 man games to injury on a roster half the size and rank 5th in the NBA

You've got it backwards. What the Leafs are going through doesn't compare to what the Raptors have gone through.

I can’t say I’m following them as closely but who are the three guys with the most injured games lost?

 

[LeafOfFaith]

LeBrun guessing 4 x 5.5 for Muzzin

4 years and whatever it is is way better than 5 years and whatever it is. Exaggerating but point remains the same.

 

[MindzEye]

I can’t say I’m following them as closely but who are the three guys with the most injured games lost?

Former NBA defensive player of the year Marc Gasol (23 games), 6th man Norman Powell (17 games) , 48% 3 pt shooting specialist Matt Thomas (31 games).

The Leaf regular with the most missed games is Soupy with 19, keeping in mind that the Raptors have played fewer games so far this season than the Leafs as well.

If we just compare the star level players

Lowry has missed 22% of the season
Siakam has missed 20% of the season
FVV has missed 18% of the season

Tavares has missed 12%
Marner has missed 19%
Rielly has missed 20%


Keeping in mind that a NHL roster is twice the size, making player absence less important.

 

[Preston]

I just think when you have a top pair defensman, it might be a good idea to try to keep him. He's 30, not 37. And if you can keep him at a reasonable 5 or 5.5 million when the cap situation will be tight for the next couple years? Yeah.. Keep him. That's 2nd pair money. You're not getting a comparable player at that pay grade. If you really want you can expose him in the expansion draft.

 

[MindzEye]

I just think when you have a top pair defensman, it might be a good idea to try to keep him. He's 30, not 37.

He's 31 very shortly, and he skates like Ron Hainsey.

And if you can keep him at a reasonable 5 or 5.5 million when the cap situation will be tight for the next couple years? Yeah.. Keep him. That's 2nd pair money. You're not getting a comparable player at that pay grade. If you really want you can expose him in the expansion draft.

If he accepts a NMC at that discounted rate. I mean, if we're playing the "fuck what happens later" logic...AP makes even more sense, no? Go get the elite RHD #1 instead of the #2 who skates like a rec league player. Worry about the dead money later. Bigger reward, bigger risk.

 

[Preston]

If he accepts a NMC at that discounted rate. I mean, if we're playing the "**** what happens later" logic...AP makes even more sense, no? Go get the elite RHD #1 instead of the #2 who skates like a rec league player. Worry about the dead money later. Bigger reward, bigger risk.

If you think AP is worth two more than Muzzin (with an additional 3 years on top of that), sure.

And if you think AP will be available, sure. I agree. They should do that.


The difference between AP and Muzzin is that you won't get any sort of discount on the top end of the deal for AP. You'll be paying for him. And more. Maybe that's the way to go, I don't know. I'd obviously have to delve into the numbers more but I just don't think the net impact of AP will be 2 times that of Muzzin.

 

[zeke]

How is he a top pair dman when he produces nothing offensively? If you’re a ghost on one end of the ice, no matter how good you might be at the other, you’re no more than a second pair guy. And four years from now....

you can't hold not playing on the PP against him.

Even Strength 82gm Paces

Muzzin

17-18: 4gls/30pts
18-19: 8gls/32pts
19-20: 5gls/25pts

Pietro

17-18: 12gls/42pts
18-19: 11gls/29pts
19-20: 11gls/34pts

Rielly

17-18: 5gls/29pts
18-19: 17gls/51pts
19-20: 6gls/36pts

McAvoy

17-18: 7gls/35pts
18-19: 9gls/38pts
19-20: 2gls/30pts

Chara

17-18: 8gls/26pts
18-19: 6gls/15pts
19-20: 8gls/19pts

Parayko

17-18: 4gls/26pts
18-19: 6gls/19pts
19-20: 7gls/23pts

McDonagh

17-18: 4gls/25pts
18-19: 9gls/40pts
19-20: 2gls/19pts

Hedman

17-18: 16gls/37pts
18-19: 12gls/33pts
19-20: 9gls/41pts

 

[LeafOfFaith]

If there's a way to get both, that's what they should do.

But obviously paying Muzzin the least we can get away with would boost any shot we'd have to open up some space for Pietrangelo.

 

[Preston]

Sometimes it's best to go with the off-brand discounted item instead of the sexy brand name.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I think if AP was available right now, they wouldn't be extending Muzzin and only adding Muzzin if it made sense dollar-wise.

The fact that they don't know if AP will make it to UFA is driving them deciding to at least get the one they can sign under contract.