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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

Glad engvall got bumped up and not clifford.

Kinda wish we started fred tonight and campbell tommorrow.
 
LeafGm said:
I honestly have a hard time figuring out what exactly my opinion is on re-singing Muzzin.

I wasn’t comfortable signing Tavares until he’s 34, and I’m not really comfortable signing Muzzin until that age either. So my natural inclination would be to play out this season with him, and then roll with the kids in-house plus some younger-than-Muzzin outside additions going forward.

But I'm not convinced that any of the kids we have in-house will be ready for a steady diet of the opposition's top forwards anytime in the near future. I certainly can't picture any of them being capable of partnering up with Nikita Zaitsev, playing almost exclusively against Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak and somehow managing to be pretty effective. Or partnering up with Justin Holl and being an effective shut-down pair.

I'm also starting to question the dogma that I and a number of other posters around here have subscribed to about aging curves for defensemen. The belief has generally been that swift-skating, skilled players will age far more gracefully, and the big defensive guys who aren't as fleet of foot or blessed with high-end talent will fall off a cliff far sooner.

But looking around the league in recent years, I'm kind of seeing the opposite. PK Subban hasn't really been great for a couple of seasons now, but at least up until his latest injury, Shea Weber was a legit top-pairing defenseman still. 42 year-old, plodding Zdeno Chara, who I thought would be out of the league years ago, is still playing and was certainly damn effective against us in the playoffs at 40 & 41.

Maybe that's far too anecdotal, but it does make me wonder if the guys who've already long-since adapted to being impact players without being the fastest or most skilled can better adapt to diminishing with age than a Jake Gardiner, who doesn't have anything else to fall back on when the mobility and reflexes that used to set him apart from most of the other players on the ice aren't quite there anymore.
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Niskanen is another that has aged well. What's anecdotal is people's beliefs that elite skaters have more longevity. They don't often use any evidence when making such statements.

I'm not going to pretend that keeping muzzin isn't a risk. Of course it is. But you can't just let your best defenseman go. Sometimes you need to take those risks that he will in fact have 2 more years of legit top pair production. That alone would make it a win, especially if it's a front loaded contract with no NMC. If he drops off in year three and is still a legit NHL defenseman, there will be interest if his actual salary is minimal. And they more than likely won't have to give up a 1st to do it. But hey, if they can get two more years of top pair or good 2nd pair production and in year 3 they ship a 1st with him to lose him? Hardly a disaster. Teams trade a 1st for his caliber of player for 2 months, nevermind 2 years.
 
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LeafGm said:
I honestly have a hard time figuring out what exactly my opinion is on re-singing Muzzin.

I wasn’t comfortable signing Tavares until he’s 34, and I’m not really comfortable signing Muzzin until that age either. So my natural inclination would be to play out this season with him, and then roll with the kids in-house plus some younger-than-Muzzin outside additions going forward.

But I'm not convinced that any of the kids we have in-house will be ready for a steady diet of the opposition's top forwards anytime in the near future. I certainly can't picture any of them being capable of partnering up with Nikita Zaitsev, playing almost exclusively against Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak and somehow managing to be pretty effective. Or partnering up with Justin Holl and being an effective shut-down pair.

I'm also starting to question the dogma that I and a number of other posters around here have subscribed to about aging curves for defensemen. The belief has generally been that swift-skating, skilled players will age far more gracefully, and the big defensive guys who aren't as fleet of foot or blessed with high-end talent will fall off a cliff far sooner.

But looking around the league in recent years, I'm kind of seeing the opposite. PK Subban hasn't really been great for a couple of seasons now, but at least up until his latest injury, Shea Weber was a legit top-pairing defenseman still. 42 year-old, plodding Zdeno Chara, who I thought would be out of the league years ago, is still playing and was certainly damn effective against us in the playoffs at 40 & 41.

Maybe that's far too anecdotal, but it does make me wonder if the guys who've already long-since adapted to being impact players without being the fastest or most skilled can better adapt to diminishing with age than a Jake Gardiner, who doesn't have anything else to fall back on when the mobility and reflexes that used to set him apart from most of the other players on the ice aren't quite there anymore.
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Yeah it's a tough call. I'm usually against 2nd tier signings but from the numbers I look at it looks like he is legit not far behind guys who are going to command double the hit AND double the term.

Then again I respect Dom and am trying to figure out why his formula pumps out such weak value for him this year.
 
If they do it, the price just has to be right. It can't be a market value/overpay deal. It has to be a home town discount.

Also I think it means you have to trade Dermott so you should be sure about what you think he'll become. He hasn't been great against 2nd line competition, but Muzzin wasn't even an NHL regular at 23. It would suck if Muzzin falls of a cliff, and Dermott becomes a prime Muzzin.
 
Rielly ($5)-XXX
Muzzin ($5-6)-Holl ($2)
Sandin ($0.89)-Lilly ($0.86)

Total $13.75-14.75

Rielly ($5)-XXX
Sandin ($0.89)-Holl ($2)
Dermott ($2-3)-Lilly ($0.86)

Total $9.75-10.75
 
Preston said:
Man I can't stand this argument. I hear shit like "player x is better than Marchand at the same age" all the time and it's just a terrible way to evaluate a player.
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That wasn't the point. The point is Dermott is still young to be making that judgment about him. We don't really know what we have there yet.

You couldn't have made an educated call on Muzzin at the same age. Marchand is another great example.

Its really not out of the realm of possibility that Dermott provides more value than Muzzin over the next 5 years given their age. It may even be the safer bet.
 
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Dermott is coming back from a shitty shoulder injury last season. Still really young. I wouldn't be so quick to move on from him just yet. We've seen some really good play from him.
 
zeke said:
34 isn't that old.
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Yeah it is. There's 26 forwards in the NHL that are 34 or older. You would want maybe 3 or 4 of them on your team at their current contract, and maybe a small handful of others for more than league minimum. D is no different. A couple guys you would even consider at their current cap hit, a few more you would take on huge discount, maybe a couple more that you would take if they came on the Spezza plan.



That's the same age Tavares' contract ends.
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I argued against that contract for similar reasons and I still believe that one is going to bite us in the end.
 
leafman101 said:
If they do it, the price just has to be right. It can't be a market value/overpay deal. It has to be a home town discount.

Also I think it means you have to trade Dermott so you should be sure about what you think he'll become. He hasn't been great against 2nd line competition, but Muzzin wasn't even an NHL regular at 23. It would suck if Muzzin falls of a cliff, and Dermott becomes a prime Muzzin.
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I don't think there's as much if in that proposition as there is when.
 
MindzEye said:
Yeah it is. There's 26 forwards in the NHL that are 34 or older. You would want maybe 3 or 4 of them on your team at their current contract, and maybe a small handful of others for more than league minimum. D is no different. A couple guys you would even consider at their current cap hit, a few more you would take on huge discount, maybe a couple more that you would take if they came on the Spezza plan.





I argued against that contract for similar reasons and I still believe that one is going to bite us in the end.
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After 200-250 goals or so, yeah, it might bite us.
 
LeafGm said:
I'm also starting to question the dogma that I and a number of other posters around here have subscribed to about aging curves for defensemen. The belief has generally been that swift-skating, skilled players will age far more gracefully, and the big defensive guys who aren't as fleet of foot or blessed with high-end talent will fall off a cliff far sooner.
Click to expand...

Chara is generational. Impossible to compare him to anyone else in fairness. If we look at the current older defenders around the league that are or were still good at 33-34. It's mostly guys who were/are mobile. Keith, Gio, Burns, Suter, J Bo, Stralman, Goligoski. Niskanen and Edler weren't elite skaters, but were strong skating defenders.

Chara, Weber, and Hainsey are the only plodders on the list. So it's not impossible for a slow defender to make it into their mid 30's (or beyond), but it's less likely than a plus skater making it.
 
leafman101 said:
Its really not out of the realm of possibility that Dermott provides more value than Muzzin over the next 5 years given their age. It may even be the safer bet.
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Okay but decision making is about playing the odds. Muzzin and Marchand are outlier late bloomers. You can't shy away from making intelligent calculated decisions based on what might happen, when it's the far less likely scenario.

If you can provide evidence that it is more likely than not that Dermott will be better than muzzin in a year or two then I'm totally with you. But I'm just not sure the data is there. If it was Dubas wouldn't be interested.

Plus you're ignoring the assets that they'd get for Dermott.
 
Age 29-30, Even Strength

Beauchemin: A- qoc, .49p/60, .24p1/60, 50.4cf% (+1.6relT), 50.7xgf% (+1.7relT)
Muzzin: B+ qoc, .99p/60, .60p1/60, 52.7cf% (+2.9relT), 52.0xgf% (+2.1relT)

Beauch was actually good, though Muzz might have a slight edge.

Beauch 31: A qoc, .53p/60, .26p1/60, 50.3cf% (+2.2relT), 48.3xgf% (+1.5relT)
Beauch 32: B+ qoc, 1.00p/60, .43p1/60, 49.4cf% (+2.4relT), 47.9xgf% (-3.7relT)
Beauch 33: B+ qoc, .64p/60, .39p1/60, 49.7cf% (-1.0relT), 51.0xgf% (-1.1relT)
Beauch 34: B+ qoc, .82p/60, .61p1/60, 50.5cf% (-0.4relT), 52.4xgf% (+1.2relT)

He dropped off but not precipitously. His age 34 season was still pretty darn good.
 
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