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The 2019-2020 MotherFucking Season Thread

zeke said:
He followed it up with some very bad math, too. Claiming that 100 dmen made $2m so it was average #4 money.

Except that it's actually 135 dmen making $2m+ , 4.4 per team, making it average #5D money.

Except that's still an awful analysis because Holl is UFA and there are tons of good ELC dmen skewing those numbers hugely.

And of course, since we're all fans that actually follow the sport we all know what $2m buys in free agency and we all know that it #4D money, which makes him either an idiot or just a desperate contrarian. (He's a bit of A but mostly B).
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Not to mention not accounting for cap inflation, which is probably the stupidest part of it all.
 
zeke said:
He followed it up with some very bad math, too. Claiming that 100 dmen made $2m so it was average #4 money.

Except that it's actually 135 dmen making $2m+ , 4.4 per team, making it average #5D money.

Except that's still an awful analysis because Holl is UFA and there are tons of good ELC dmen skewing those numbers hugely.

And of course, since we're all fans that actually follow the sport we all know what $2m buys in free agency and we all know that it #4D money, which makes him either an idiot or just a desperate contrarian. (He's a bit of A but mostly B).
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Narrow it down to RHD, 25+, UFA and ... pretty much everyone south of $2mm is a depth player or, at best, 3rd pairing.
 
BeLeafer said:
The only downside I see here is that Holl's performance has been pumped up by Muzzin and he might get exposed without him. Even if that happens though, it would mean he's a bottom pair RD -- which is still a good deal.
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He looked good before this pairing too. Actually thought dermott and him played very well together before he was promoted next to Muzzin.

But even if he becomes a #5 guy again, it’s not a crazy overpayment.
 
Great deal. Super happy. A
Nd exactly what I expected. Who was I arguing with just last week here who said that we’d never get him for $2m?
 
And there’s really no universe in which it can be an overpayment. I’m not worried at all.

And I think Dermott will slot in at $2.5m for three years. Based on their respective play, Holl deserves more than him, so the fact that Dermott will get more further supports the notion that Holl’s deal is an underpay.
 
BeLeafer said:
Narrow it down to RHD, 25+, UFA and ... pretty much everyone south of $2mm is a depth player or, at best, 3rd pairing.
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At best.

In Toronto parlance, we just gave Holl "Connor Carrick" or "Roman Polak" money.

If you look at the RHD UFA available this off season who had (expiring) contracts in that AAV range:

DeMelo: .96
Rutta: 1.3
Shatty: 1.75
Polak: 1.75
TVR: 2.3
K Miller: 2.5
Pysyk: 2.73

Who are we trying to get out of that group for 2 million(ish) that is better than Holl, and will take 2 million(ish)?
 
MindzEye said:
At best.

In Toronto parlance, we just gave Holl "Connor Carrick" or "Roman Polak" money.

If you look at the RHD UFA available this off season who had (expiring) contracts in that AAV range:

DeMelo: .96
Rutta: 1.3
Shatty: 1.75
Polak: 1.75
TVR: 2.3
K Miller: 2.5
Pysyk: 2.73

Who are we trying to get out of that group for 2 million(ish) that is better than Holl, and will take 2 million(ish)?
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Meh not worth arguing. It's just people wanting to be contrarians for attention. The usual suspects on twitter.

Not even I'm that much of a dumbfuck. That's saying something ain't it.
 
Anyone have any new years stories, teaching hockey to boomers? About to go for lunch with boomer mindset brothers and I can't fucking wait to rub in the leafs and Nylander's success to them (100+ point pace under Keefe, 70 point pace overall). Just a week ago I heard a lot of "they'll make the playoffs but they're not good. They can't play like that in the playoffs" just a week ago and I kept quiet because it was a larger group. I'm going in to battle today. Winning is bad in boomerland I guess.
 
Preston said:
Anyone have any new years stories, teaching hockey to boomers? About to go for lunch with boomer mindset brothers and I can't fucking wait to rub in the leafs and Nylander's success to them (100+ point pace under Keefe, 70 point pace overall). Just a week ago I heard a lot of "they'll make the playoffs but they're not good. They can't play like that in the playoffs" just a week ago and I kept quiet because it was a larger group. I'm going in to battle today. Winning is bad in boomerland I guess.
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Well I mean people that say "they can't play like that in the playoffs" theoretically can not be proven wrong at this point so not sure I would bring that up.
 
Oh and they will keep saying "but playoffs", if they're like my friends.

Just make sure to point out that we're a top 10 defense (by goals) and top 5 defense (by nerd stat expected goals) since Keefe took over.

xGA/60 all strengths since keefe:

1.MIN 2.28
2.CBJ 2.29
3.BOS 2.49
4.PIT 2.49
5.TBL 2.55
5.TOR 2.55
 
leaffan2005 said:
Well I mean people that say "they can't play like that in the playoffs" theoretically can not be proven wrong at this point so not sure I would bring that up.
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Can it be proven right? The onus is on the accuser to prove it. The penguins won two cups in a row recently playing a similar style with a similar roster make-up.

But the larger point is we haven't seen this group in the playoffs under Keefe. His style worked in the AHL. Until we see it doesn't work in the NHL, it's ridiculous to assume it won't. Being skeptical is fine, but saying it as an absolute is beyond dumb.
 
"Keefe's Style" is much much much better defensively than "Babcock's Style" ever was.

First time we've ever seen this core put up anything other than bad defensive numbers....and now they're not just good numbers, but very good ones.
 
zeke said:
"Keefe's Style" is much much much better defensively than "Babcock's Style" ever was.

First time we've ever seen this core put up anything other than bad defensive numbers....and now they're not just good numbers, but very good ones.
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I mean, yeah. I'm not about to say they're a great defensive team. But to think it's mandatory to be great defensively in the regular season to win a cup is dumb. The recency bias is unreal in hockey. First everyone tried to copy Pittsburgh, then they credited Tom Wilson for the caps cup and now it's the big bad blues gritty model.

It's almost like every team has different strengths and the ultimate goal is to simply score more than the other team.
 
Now I'm on record pushing my luck theory in the playoffs. Yes it's a major factor. .

But I'm sure as fuck happy they have a coach who will make adjustments mid-series. To think they basically lost to Boston on a coin flip last year, sputtering into the playoffs playing a horse shit style that doesn't optimize their talent.


Marleau - Nylander - Brown

Game after game. Shift after shift.
 
The cock was a huge impediment to this team. That much is now certain. Who knows what they would have done the past two years with Keefe? Highly doubtful they would have had two first round exits.
 
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