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The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

Wayward DP said:
don't underestimate his impact on our PP. we've had a top-5 PP for a bunch of years running now with him being the primary puckhandler, not a coincidence.

but yeah, overall hasn't been his best season. he's looked completely lost defensively at times, and no one other than Brodie can stay above water playing with him at evens...
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I really don’t buy it when it comes to his impact on the PP. Not for a second.
 
Wayward DP said:
@zeke not like they'll make a difference to his opinion but want to post the Mo/PP stats?

the numbers speaks for themselves but I know your eyes speak more loudly and (to you) more compellingly.
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Just watch a PP once and see that he’s literally not doing anything special out there. You’re right, I don’t care what the stats say. He can’t shoot and this doesn’t score. And his passing consists of basically standing in one spot and just getting it over to Matty or Marner on either side of him. Not hard. Gus just had a big game doing the same thing.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Just watch a PP once and see that he’s literally not doing anything special out there. You’re right, I don’t care what the stats say. He can’t shoot and this doesn’t score. And his passing consists of basically standing in one spot and just getting it over to Matty or Marner on either side of him. Not hard. Gus just had a big game doing the same thing.
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check your damn eyes! he is, among other things, a fucking guru at keeping pucks in. pretty sure it led directly to one of last night's goals.

question for you - if you think player A is fantastic (based on your eye test), but the puck never goes into the other team's net when player A is on the ice, do you revise your opinion?
 
He’s not doing anything there that many others wouldn’t also be able to do.

Rielly’s thing is carrying the puck out, using that lumbering speed to get it from one end to the other, and then being able to get creative once in there or getting a shot away, again on the rush. He’s good when moving. When he’s just manning the point on the PP, he really doesn’t add much. He has no shot and his passing is whatevs.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
He’s not doing anything there that many others wouldn’t also be able to do.

Rielly’s thing is carrying the puck out, using that lumbering speed to get it from one end to the other, and then being able to get creative once in there or getting a shot away, again on the rush. He’s good when moving. When he’s just manning the point on the PP, he really doesn’t add much. He has no shot and his passing is whatevs.
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If others are able to do it, why does the Leafs PP score so much more with Mo out there than any other d-man?
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Just watch a PP once and see that he’s literally not doing anything special out there. You’re right, I don’t care what the stats say. He can’t shoot and this doesn’t score. And his passing consists of basically standing in one spot and just getting it over to Matty or Marner on either side of him. Not hard.
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except the PP sucked balls when he was out.


LeafOfFaith said:
Gus just had a big game doing the same thing.
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it was the habs.

the habs.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Who’s the other dman they’ve tried and how many games did he get?
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sorry not doing that level of digging while at the office. You’ll have to take my word that I reviewed the stats (courtesy of zeke) and this is what they say, until he gets around to reposting them
 
He missed a lot of games this year, and wasn't 100% on return - somebody must have had those minutes.
 
Here's how the 5v4 PP has done with each Leaf on the ice (min 20min):

PPP.png


now that's not entirely fair to everyone out there, as a bunch of those guys played mainly with 2nd unit guys, but still, Mo has a healthy lead even on the other 1st unit guys, which means the top unit has missed him more than they've missed anyone else there when they've been missing.
 
He’s their best dman at holding the line. Also moving the puck, although not with those sweet spot Kabby-esq passes.

he’s probably also good at running interference on the entries. Got called for it last night but he must do that all the time.
 
Rielly only missed 17 games this year. A PP will routinely go through 10 game plus stretches of either fire or ineptitude.

And then the other D that played while he was out didn’t get those full 17 games or anything. They rotated in and out. I’m guessing Sandin probably got the longest stretch of the bunch out there, but still not that long.

It’s tough to accept any numbers that say Rielly is better for the PP that all of the core 4 guys. I mean, that’s pure silliness.

By the way, to be clear, I like Rielly. However I do think he’s had an awful season, and I don’t think he’s any kind of PP master.
 
leafman101 said:
After decades of research the nerds have spoken. +/- is the best stat.
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We laugh at the progression of the conversation, but I think we need to remember that a massive reason +/- was deemed useless 10+ years ago was how often it was calculated incorrectly. I vaguely remember an analysis of +/- that showed players receiving +'s or -'s inaccurately on 30-40% of goals scored...as in, they weren't on the fucking ice at all when the goal was scored, but had a + or - given.

I imagine that has been improved drastically over the years.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Just watch a PP once and see that he’s literally not doing anything special out there.
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It's because what he does is keep plays alive with his mobility that would otherwise clear the zone and require a reset/re-entry and cleanly/calmly distribute the puck exactly where it needs to go for the receiver to have it in space with no pressure.

Nothing sexy, but there's a reason why our PP stats crater when defenders who everyone thinks must be better offensively than Rielly take over that role.
 
Top Unit 5v4 This year

With All 5: 132:30, 13.13gf/60, 13.08xgf/60
w/o Tavares: 06:51, 17.52gf/60, 14.83xgf/60
w/o Auston: 23:25, 12.81gf/60, 9.13xgf/60
w/o Marner: 05:24, 11.11gf/60, 6.83xgf/60
w/o Rielly: 90:01, 7.33gf/60, 10.47xgf/60
w/o Willy: 01:22, 0.00gf/60, 0.00xgf/60


Big-4 5v4 This Year:

w/Rielly: 132:30, 13.13gf/60, 13.08xgf/60
w/Sandin: 43:52, 6.84gf/60, 12.00xgf/60
w/Bunting: 34:37, 8.67gf/60, 9.98xgf/60
w/Giordano: 5:01, 0.00gf/60, 9.41xgf/60
w/Gustafsson: 4:40, 0.00gf/60, 1.83xgf/60
w/Timmins: 1:12, 50.00gf/60, 12.17xgf/60
w/Liljegren: 0:34, 0.00gf/60, 0.00xgf/60
 
And it’s adjusted for everything and takes into consideration usage, microstats etc to come up with expected value.

But switching the model form game score to expected +/- is perfection.
 
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