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The Fantastically Beautiful Joyously Superfun 22-23 Season Celebration Thread

looks like Dom/The Athletic are revisiting how they use/deploy GSVA. In fact, sounds like they're moving away from GSVA and instead focusing on "Offensive Rating" and "Defensive Rating".

ARTICLE

And he acknowledges that GSVA was minorly underrating defensive impacts pre-split, too. And overrated 'pace'.

And then combined you get "Net Rating", which is basically GSVA with some tweaks.

Also moving away from a WAR-like counting stat to having 'baseline' be a zero rating (i.e. league average = 0) for 'Net Rating'.

Net Rating is also based on per game rates, not per 60 min rates.

O-Rating and D-Rating will be measured in 'goals' (I think this means similar to GSVA/WAR-type stats)

eg of a new player card:

1681312618521.png

and another legend to decipher value:

1681312686037.png
 
Everything above is weighted almost the same as before. Individual metrics carry the same weight and the ratio between individual and on-ice impact also stays the same. But the ratio of expected to actual goals has changed as actual goals have become more important and predictive as goals per game has increased.
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+/-!!!!
 
Wayward DP said:
+/- sucks and is useless. But GF%... that is the fucking cream of the crop of advanced stats!
Click to expand...

good joke, but there is actually a huge difference between the two, as he highlights here:

"Here’s an example. Team A wins 4-3 on average which would give them a plus-82 goal differential over a full season. Using Pythagorean win probability they would be expected to win 65.7 percent of games. Team B wins 2.7-2 on average which would give them a plus-57 goal differential. Using Pythagorean win probability they would also be expected to win 65.7 percent of games. GSVA, because it didn’t separate out offense and defense, would expect Team A to be far superior, but Net Rating would expect the two to be equal. When Islanders fans have asked in years past why The Model hates their team, this is probably why. And they had a good point.

The real-world differences won’t be nearly as drastic as the example above because the differences for teams aren’t that large. But it will help around the margins. GSVA thinks the Penguins are better than the Kings and their expected goal differential is indeed higher (mostly due to Pittsburgh’s strong priors and poor puck luck this season). Net Rating instead leans toward the Kings, who are a much stronger defensive team."


(that being said, xGF is still a massive part of the model. )
 
He’s had a terrible season. That contract looks really bad at the moment. Like, Sandin could’ve provided the same value, maybe more, for $1.4m?
 
zeke said:
good joke, but there is actually a huge difference between the two, as he highlights here:

"Here’s an example. Team A wins 4-3 on average which would give them a plus-82 goal differential over a full season. Using Pythagorean win probability they would be expected to win 65.7 percent of games. Team B wins 2.7-2 on average which would give them a plus-57 goal differential. Using Pythagorean win probability they would also be expected to win 65.7 percent of games. GSVA, because it didn’t separate out offense and defense, would expect Team A to be far superior, but Net Rating would expect the two to be equal. When Islanders fans have asked in years past why The Model hates their team, this is probably why. And they had a good point."


(that being said, xGF is still a massive part of the model. )
Click to expand...
look who kept his Athletic subscription going after all
 
LeafOfFaith said:
He’s had a terrible season. That contract looks really bad at the moment. Like, Sandin could’ve provided the same value, maybe more, for $1.4m?
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don't underestimate his impact on our PP. we've had a top-5 PP for a bunch of years running now with him being the primary puckhandler, not a coincidence.

but yeah, overall hasn't been his best season. he's looked completely lost defensively at times, and no one other than Brodie can stay above water playing with him at evens...
 
I like that using Rating instead of GSVA gives us a nice easy concept of Average Player = 0.

But I think he'll probably have to end up tweaking his move to plain per game over per minute stats. he'll probably have to figure out a way to combine them at some point. or maybe go with per minute but devalue it the lower the TOI is.
 
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