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The Fucking Season Thread - Redemption Tour '22

Pretty garbagey, no? If we have designs on him being a top pair or at worst #3, I'd hope his D would be better than that on the third pair.

Having said that, he's still in training wheels so I don't really care about average defensive performance just yet. Was just surprised to see his offense through the roof but his defense just meh. Because the ole peepers test tells me he's pretty damn good out there.
 
Average is average.

But Dom >>> jfresh

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It's such classic dreger bullshit.

Nobody in the Leafs org or outside of it would refer to any of the Leafs prospects as their "top prospect".
 
zeke said:
It's such classic dreger bullshit.

Nobody in the Leafs org or outside of it would refer to any of the Leafs prospects as their "top prospect".
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Our GM just went on the record he has no intention to do anything until closer to the deadline cause we need to evaluate our young defence men and see the line up without injuries….

But we offered a top prospect for a dog shit dman?
 
I mean isn't that the whole point of PDO? The Leafs SH% was always going to go from #32 to close to #1, and Jacks save% was always going to go from .940 to .920.

Jack was unsustainable good, and finishing was unsustainably bad.
 
But Jack playing at .940 doesn't necessarily make him more likely to go on a stretch of sub .900 play. You'd hope that his save percentage drops after a stretch of average, .910-.920 play. Regressing to the mean doesn't necessarily mean that unsustainable play in one direction means the player will go on an unsustainable run in the other direction! Or at least you'd hope not in Jack's case.
 
It kind of does though doesn't it? I mean players don't always regress to the mean and have career years that can't be repeated. But if they do regress to the mean after such a hot/cold start it has to be a hard hit. The Leafs scoring is the exact inverse. They didn't just start scoring at their normal pace again, they scored a million goals all at once, a billion of which were Marnerses.

It would be weirder if Jack didn't rebound to his normal .920 ish, borderline top 10 goalie play this year, than having a month long cold streak after flying too close to the sun.
 
leafman101 said:
It kind of does though doesn't it? I mean players don't always regress to the mean and have career years and stuff that can't be repeated. But if they do regress to the mean after such a hot/cold start its a hard hit.

It would be weirder if Jack didn't rebound to his normal .920 ish, borderline top 10 goalie play this year, than having a month long cold streak after flying too close to the sun.
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You flip a coin 10 times and each time you hit heads. Does that mean it's more likely that the next 10 times are tails? No. Your odds are still 50-50. But the larger the sample size, the more likely you regress to the mean. It doesn't mean the odds of hitting tails suddenly increase.
 
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