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The Fucking Season Thread - Redemption Tour '22

Preston said:
Muzz's season is sorta reminding me of Niskanen's the year before he joined Philly and crushed it. Sometimes olds have nightmare one-off seasons. For Jake it was only really 35 or 40 games of a rough patch. If he was younger we'd look at his 2 or 3 year splits and take a deep breath, but he's getting up there in age and becoming slightly broken. So I do get the concern that he may not be that top pair monster anymore. Good news is Leafs aren't depending on him to be that this year.
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He can't skate, dude.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
He can't skate, dude.
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Keefe mentioned something flared up to cause him to be out of this weekend's games. Maybe its an injury he has been dealing with all year that has affected his skating. Trying to be optimistic, but hopefully a short offseason gives him the fix he needs to return to form next year.
 
fergy57 said:
Keefe mentioned something flared up to cause him to be out of this weekend's games. Maybe its an injury he has been dealing with all year that has affected his skating. Trying to be optimistic, but hopefully a short offseason gives him the fix he needs to return to form next year.
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That would be good, if that's the case. But hopefully there is a long postseason that he fully participates in, thereby giving him the shortest offseason possible.
 
Decided to just say Kase and Sandin are toast and look at the plausible line combos for the playoffs. Obviously all the 4th line samples and most of the 3rd pair samples are too tiny to see much but thought I'd look anyways:

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What I conclude from that is that Rielly-Lilly is dominant, Brodie-Holl pretty damn good, and then that Gio needs to be with Lilly or Brodie, which would break the other pairs. Maybe Gio-Muzz should be tried, assuming we can survive without Babushkie.
 
I like rielly and Lilly apart because Lilly is the only other guy on the back end besides rielly who can play aggressive and with speed in the ozone and push the pace.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
What I conclude from that is that Rielly-Lilly is dominant, Brodie-Holl pretty damn good, and then that Gio needs to be with Lilly or Brodie, which would break the other pairs. Maybe Gio-Muzz should be tried, assuming we can survive without Babushkie.
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Yeah something like that.

I'm guessing tho that Mo-Lilly combo's stats are skewed a bit by easier / more offensive usage.

The interesting take away might be that Mo-Boosh is also decent in likely similarly easy usage, but with more dzone usage.

What's maybe not surprising is that the combos that are least effective are when two slowfoots (muzz/gio/boosh) are paired together.

Or maybe the takeaway is that we have lots of good options and I'm not sure I care too much about which way it works - especially since the one guy I'm concerned with (Boosh) seems to be used very specifically and effectively by Keefe who seems to understand his limits well - heck he's not even forcing him into PK duty which most every coach would do with this type of dman.
 



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Still enough hockey left for this to change, but the likely playoff matchups are starting to take shape

With all situation xG% ranking in brackets

Florida (1) - Washington (12)
Toronto (3) - Tampa (11)

Carolina-Rangers being tied fucks with this a bit, but the Rangers are surging, and Carolina sucking dick, so I'll assume the Rangers pass the Canes.

NYR (15) - Bruins (5)
Carolina (4) - Pittsburgh (6)

Those 2 could easily flip though.

Colorado (10) - Dallas (7)
Calgary (2) - Nashville (19)
St Louis (20) - Minnesota (16)
Edmonton (8) - LAK (9)

First glance takeaways

- Fuck the east and everything it stands for. NYR is the only mediocre team of the bunch and they have the pending Vezina winner in net, not a fun series for anyone. Out west, there's 3 teams that are mediocre to mildly bad according to xG (and could get worse if 13th Vegas passes 9th LAK)

- Tampa appears to be the lesser of the two matchup possibilities for us. But that's 2 time defending stanley cup lesser of the two matchup possibilities to us though.

- If we have to go through Tampa & then the Panthers to get to the ECF, I am kinda happy that the Panthers have to put up with Tom Wilson's shit for a series.

- I'm kind of surprised Colorado isn't better...they're really dragged down by their 27th ranked PK. But even then, just 9th in 5v5 xG. Must be nice playing in a conference with like 3 other teams of value.
 
zeke said:
NYR has had a huge jump in xgf% since the trade deadline. They really upgraded in a big way.
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They have, but they've played Buffalo, Jersey, Flyers, Wings, Isles, & Ottawa in 9 of those 13 games since the deadline.

The 4 that weren't against bad teams were against the Pens & Hurricans

April 12 v Canes: 45.5% xG
April 7 v Pens: 38.7% xG
March 29 v Pens: 45.5% xG
March 25 v Pens: 63.1% xG

Did they get a lot better or are they just crushing cans?
 
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