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The ****ing Season thread, 2015/16 Edition

Considering there didn't seem to me much interest in Kessel from the teams on his trade list, and the leafs decided to dump him no matter what hey could get they did pretty well.
 
It's funny I'm hearing no criticism of Kessel and I've heard he's "Playing Well". If he had those many points with Bozak he'd be getting roasted here.

Life really does change when you leave the Leafs.
 
mbow30 said:
sounds like fans / media are also starting to turn on kessel.

sid deserves a big share of the blame because he isn't playing well. but i can't say i'm surprised that people are frustrated by kessel's complete unwillingness to compete every shift, or ever on the wall or in the defensive zone.
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The first goal in this Pittsburgh/Boston highlight package is vintage Phil in the defensive zone:

[video=youtube;88YTuTbgQn4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88YTuTbgQn4[/video]

Stands about five feet away from a puck battle along the boards, doing nothing. While he's standing there, a Bruin skates right past Kessel and grabs the loose puck. Kessel makes no effort to either take the puck away from him or interrupt the pass, and the puck ends up in the back of the net.
 
As we approach the Christmas break the Leafs sit 29th in the league (Tied for 30th actually, but having played only 31 games vs Columbus' 35 puts us at 29th) ... and actually much lower in standing compared to Carlyle's Leafs 1 year ago.


Playing the right way vs. Winning

I think this is interesting cause it brings up the question of winning the wrong way, vs. losing by playing the right way.

There's no question the Leafs are a MUCH better systematic team, and the advanced stats suggest that too. The eye tests, and comments by the players all tell you they are much better positionally, players know where the other players are, and game in and game out they stick with the system winning or losing, and the team also has an improved special teams.

So the team is playing BETTER, but we keep losing

One man wrecking crew

Which bring us to another point - the importance of goaltending, especially for a team thin on talent and is involved in a lot of close, 1 goal games.

And in that sense, Bernier has been a 1-man wrecking crew for the Leafs. In games Bernier has started the leafs have played on 35 points pace. Yes, 35. I think we deserve extra draft lottery balls for being that pathetic.

In non-Bernier starts (Reimer + Sparks) the Leafs have played on 98 points pace actually.

Nobody knows how Bernier got to be so bad at least in the first 3 months of the season, and we'll see if winning the first game turns the season around for him, but if you belong to Tank nation then Bernier's been your star so far this season

Trade baits

After the Christmas break, there isn't really that much time before the trade deadline and while we initially envisioned a bunch of picks to come Toronto's way with all the rental FA signings in the summer, it hasn't worked out that well for Mr. Hunter

Parenteau leads the trade bait market with 8G 15Pts in 31 games, and he is most likely the trade bait that will fetch the highest return comes February.

Boyes has been a frequent healthy scratch and only had 9 points in 24 games. Good luck even getting a 3rd rounder for him.

Matthias is no better, also with 2G 9pts in 30 games. Watching him play it's hard to imagine the hometown player had 18G with Vancouver last season.

Grabner 'exploded' with a 4 points game playing on '1st line' vs. SJ, and we'll see if his season turns around because he basically doubled his season production in that 1 game ... he now has 8 points through 29 games


Curious case of Lupul
With Grabner drawing '1st line duty' vs. SJ it is interesting how Babs has played Lupul this season.

I can't deny JVR has had subpar chemistry with Kadri and after 20-ish games, I think it was the right call to reunite Bozak and JVR, whom JVR clearly has better chemistry with (still, JVR has had a slightly disappointing season imo ... i digress)

Yet with Babs trying Grabner on Kadri's wing, it is interesting to see Lupul, now supposedly healthy from his recent injury, draws 3rd line duty with Holland and Winnik again.

Lupul was played with Spaling and Winnik in a checking role early in the season, and he's seen little PP times, and then he got injured ... and now he's back and healthy again he is again stuck on the 3rd line. With Spaling out, Babs has been using Kadri's line against the opposition's top line, and he doesn't trust the trio of Holland, Winnik and Lupul against with the tough defensive assignment.

Lupul is 3 years removed from his PPG 67pts season, and on offensive talent alone he's gotta be a top 3 or top 4 F on this team. Yet Babs has not used him in an offensive role at all, it makes you wonder why ... it also makes you wonder if there's any truth to the rumour that Lupul was complaining he's sore and asked to skip a practice, and Babs just 'suspended' him for 10 games and announced he was injured.
 
As the deadline approaches i think the more interesting topics will end up being the future of Bozak and Komarov. Ive said for a while i would like to keep Komarov around unless the return is spectacular (no i don't consider a very late 1st to be spectacular) but with the way these two are playing you are going to get some teams very interested.

Honestly i don't really see a scenario where Bozak fits on next years team unless you want to shift him down to 3rd line duty.
 
Yeah, on the whole, the rentals have been pretty underwhelming this year, unfortunately.

If the trade deadline was today, Parenteau & Spaling are probably the only guys you'd almost certainly find takers for, while Arcobello & Boyes would be this year's David Booths that you wouldn't even be able to give away for free. Parenteau's been providing good enough secondary scoring that when you combine that with an expiring contract and his really low cap hit, you may be able to find someone willing to cough up a 2nd rounder for him.

Spaling's the typical kind of decent-sized, gritty defensive center (with playoff experience) that teams like to have as depth when going into the playoffs, so maybe you could get something between a 3rd-5th rounder for him. Maybe you could do the same for Matthias if you're lucky, even though he's not scoring.

Grabner's a wild card. You may not be able to give him away for free. But if he can keep playing well enough to stay on Kadri's line and score at even the same pace as Parenteau for a couple of months for him, you could get a pretty nice return---especially if you retain half of his cap hit for the remainder of the year. His speed, ability to play on the PK and his ability to move up and down the lineup could be intriguing for teams looking for forward depth as well.
 
trujaysfan said:
As the deadline approaches i think the more interesting topics will end up being the future of Bozak and Komarov. Ive said for a while i would like to keep Komarov around unless the return is spectacular (no i don't consider a very late 1st to be spectacular) but with the way these two are playing you are going to get some teams very interested.

Honestly i don't really see a scenario where Bozak fits on next years team unless you want to shift him down to 3rd line duty.
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Bozak is this year's Franson. Some may laugh at this, but out of all our expendable assets, I think he gives you the best chance at landing a first round pick. Legitimate NHL centers that can score even in the 45-50 point range don't come cheap, as the Antoine Vermette deal last year attests to. The fact that he's signed for two more years after this one will mean that the market will be smaller for Bozak than it was for Vermette though, and that could hurt his value.

I guess Komarov might be able to fetch you a 1st rounder too---the "playoff style" of hockey he plays, combined with his high scoring numbers this year and low cap hit would make him a tempting target for a lot of teams. But that's the question; with two years left on a reasonable deal, is he an "expendable asset"? Or someone you want to keep around when we start graduating some real prospects onto the NHL roster next season?

Roman Polak may be good for another 2nd rounder too. He's the exact kind of gritty, leaderbean-type defenseman that lots of GM's love to add before the playoffs, and his expiring contract and relatively low cap hit would mean that you'd be able to shop him to pretty much any team that has a chance to make the playoffs.
 
Komarov is playing the best hockey he is ever going to play and it would be smart of Lou to capitalize on that.

Soneone will overpay they just have to up sell him to get a maximum return
 
Bozak's problem is that bad PR via Kessel hurt his overall value last year. Not sure if his good numbers can wipe that out completely to fetch us a 1st. But I agree, he's the most marketable.

Komarov I think we have to keep. I think Babcock loves him, and for good reason. They should hold onto him, and will.

Polak will bring value, but man he sucks.

PA will get us something good, Spaling maybe a 4th at best, and if there's a taker, Boyes and Matthias get us 6ths.

Grabner is an interesting case. If he can turn it around from here offensively, he might be the most valuable UFA chip given his skating and PK abilities.
 
Komarov's situation is pretty much identical to Clarkson's. Gritty, physical 3rd liner that is getting PP opportunity in the prime years of his career and scoring some goals, neither of which will be sustainable long term. So Lou has experience with this situation.
 
Need it why? To finish in 28th?

What the Leafs need now is accumulating picks and high end prospects. Not like they will be competing for a cup in Komarov's prime years.

They could use up his prime years over the next couple years and let him walk for nothing, or try to capitalize while his value is at is highest to get something that will be here in 3-5 years when they are competing.
 
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It all depends on return for Komarov ... Even when Shanny & Co builds out this roster in 3-4 years, this team still needs warm bodies to fill out the top 9, and Komarov is a very useful piece. I don't feel his contract is overpriced by much, and he isn't old either. He can be a very useful player for at least the next 5-6 years.

Which is not to say I won't trade Komarov, but I won't be actively looking to unload him to the highest offer.

Bozak, OTOH, I'll trade in a heartbeat.
 
leafman101 said:
Komarov's situation is pretty much identical to Clarkson's. Gritty, physical 3rd liner that is getting PP opportunity in the prime years of his career and scoring some goals, neither of which will be sustainable long term. So Lou has experience with this situation.
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Let's not presume Lou's default choice, if left to his own devices, would be to get rid of Komarov. He may have let Clarkson walk in the summer of 2013, but he did offer him an extension. And when he didn't get Clarkson, he turned around and gave five years and $25M to Ryane Clowe instead.

Anyway, that's sort of beside the point. I don't think we're too much in disagreement on the topic of Komarov. If you can find some GM willing to blow out his brains for him by the deadline, then by all means make the deal. At the same time though, I don't think it's imperative to trade him to whoever the highest bidder happens to be this year, if the offers are underwhelming. That's a luxury afforded to us by the two years left on his contract, and the fact that he's still in his 20's.
 
Can't just trade everything that may or may not have value cause "ya know, we're rebuilding !" We need some players on this team to play with the kids we're drafting.

You want to bring in as many assets as possible surround them with the right players.

I'd rather have my Marner/Nylander playing with Komarov's than Bozaks and Lupuls.
 
rated said:
Can't just trade everything that may or may not have value cause "ya know, we're rebuilding !" We need some players on this team to play with the kids .
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No but you can trade players who are well outperforming their career norms due to ice time that isn't sustainable and being in their prime years to sell high for value you won't be able to get down the road.

Guys like Ladri and JVR are more important to keep pressure off if he young guys than a 3rd liner having a career year.
 
LeafGm said:
Bozak is this year's Franson. Some may laugh at this, but out of all our expendable assets, I think he gives you the best chance at landing a first round pick. Legitimate NHL centers that can score even in the 45-50 point range don't come cheap, as the Antoine Vermette deal last year attests to. The fact that he's signed for two more years after this one will mean that the market will be smaller for Bozak than it was for Vermette though, and that could hurt his value.
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Franson and Santo were both expiring contracts, and Bozak still has what, 3 years left on his contract? That will hurt his trade value.

I guess Komarov might be able to fetch you a 1st rounder too---the "playoff style" of hockey he plays, combined with his high scoring numbers this year and low cap hit would make him a tempting target for a lot of teams. But that's the question; with two years left on a reasonable deal, is he an "expendable asset"? Or someone you want to keep around when we start graduating some real prospects onto the NHL roster next season?
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I have no question Komarov will fetch us more at trade deadline, he's the kinda player that GMs, especially old school GMs, love to have going into the playoff.

The value of Bozak to the Leafs, for upcoming years, is also a lot higher than Bozak though. Bozak is very much expandable with Nylander and Marner here next season. Without top 6 minutes, Bozak is very much useless.
 
number17 said:
Franson and Santo were both expiring contracts, and Bozak still has what, 3 years left on his contract? That will hurt his trade value.

I have no question Komarov will fetch us more at trade deadline, he's the kinda player that GMs, especially old school GMs, love to have going into the playoff.

The value of Bozak to the Leafs, for upcoming years, is also a lot higher than Bozak though. Bozak is very much expandable with Nylander and Marner here next season. Without top 6 minutes, Bozak is very much useless.
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I'm probably the only one but i have a very hard time picturing both Nylander and Marner in the lineup next year(just with the way Babcock coaches it's hard to imagine this). I basically see a bunch of Kessel type players coming in(both fairly weak at board battles, not good enough defensively). I think you see one of them here(most likely Nylander as he's more ready) but not both. Now let's see comments about Marner killing it in the OHL and how he has nothing to learn. :)
 
They are nothing like Kessel when it comes to battling for the puck. They are young, they need to get stronger, they will make mistakes, there will be growing pains, but just because they are young and skilled doesn't mean they don't compete.
 
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