• Moderators, please send me a PM if you are unable to access mod permissions. Thanks, Habsy.

The Mother-fucking goddamn Off-season Thread

Honestly my mind just always goes back to that analytics conference speech he gave and it makes me think that isn't the same guy. At all.

A few years under Lou seems to have changed him a lot.

It's easy to be a maverick and spin a story in front of a room full of nerds that agree with you. A whole other issue when you're sitting next to Lou, Hunter, and a group of "hockey guys" questioning everything you say. Cam Charon has flat out stated that the coaching staff didn't utilize the data that Kyle's hand built analytics department was generating. Doesn't sound like the organization valued it as much as we were led to believe or at best were cherry picking the shit they liked to hear, which leads to ignoring the things you don't.
 
It’s tough to get all the guys you want.

the other issue is that at the end of the day all that really matters is your good players.
 
You know what else feels kinda cheap to me after thinking about it? Going after ownership when all we ever heard from anyone was that Dubas got literally a blank cheque from ownership and how jealous everyone else in the league was about it.

Fuck Bell & Rogers right in the ass until they die.


But


Yeah, I haven't heard a single bad word about the board for yeeeears. Not a mumble, or rumour. Even during the Masai negotiations. If they were actually shit, you have to assume we'd have heard about it by now.
 
"If the salary cap was $140 million, Toronto would have a $140 million payroll," one agent said. "They are the Yankees or the Dodgers of our league. [GM] Kyle [Dubas] seemingly gets a blank check from ownership." Toronto players sometimes joke that they could spend each day introducing themself to a different team staffer. Rival front office members joke that Dubas has more assistant general managers than they have ties; the Leafs technically have five AGMs, plus eight people in hockey ops with a director title.

On the low end of the spectrum is Carolina, which has the leanest front office in the league. GM Don Waddell has a small circle around him, and they are all tasked with doing multiple jobs. Waddell also holds the title of team president. Multitasking runs throughout the organization; in the playoffs, public relations manager Mike Brown was assisting on video goal reviews.

The Kings, Rangers and Maple Leafs were all consistently mentioned for putting the most resources into player development, with the Montreal Canadiens and Red Wings cited as teams "trending up" in that area.

...

"People will make fun of how much Toronto spends," one front office executive said. "But that's just because they're jealous. Too often in this league we cater to the lowest common denominator."


They are the Seattle Kraken's analytics team, already thought to be the second-largest analytics staff in the NHL behind the Toronto Maple Leafs, according to Behind The Benches.


------


Tulsky's got like a janitor helping him with nerd shit.
 
That's the answer to the question of "why would __________ go there"

That's fucking why. You could have a different director of hockey ops fetch your coffee every day of the week with one in reserve in case of a sick day.

Tulsky is cleaning his own toilet in Carolina and shopping at Staples for his own calculators to do his nerd shit on. Dubas had a dozen man servants locked in a room doing trig to help him calculate the bonus miles he's getting on grocery purchases.
 
Chipping in my two cents here late in the game.

And now that I've typed this out, it's turned into a bit of a lengthy unhinged rant, but here we go:


I'm a little annoyed that, in the end, a press conference was the reason Shanahan decided to shit-can Dubas. But for an altogether different reason than Montana---I don't think Shanahan should have ever entertained bringing him back in the first place because Dubas richly deserved to be fired purely based on his job performance. And I'm pretty happy to see him go.

He does seem like a genuinely decent human being in a league that doesn't have enough of those. And in terms of social causes, Dubas seems to be pretty closely aligned to my own sensibilities. And I appreciate both those things. But the bottom line is that as a GM, he didn't end up being the kind of manager he was advertised to be. He was supposed to be a forward-thinking, analytical GM who'd keep our core together while surrounding them with a strong supporting cast through a combination of a strong focus on the draft, developing from within, smart cap management and identifying market inefficiencies on the trade and free agent markets.

And...that just didn't happen.

As far as smart adds through free agency goes, some people are trying to retcon this into a recent development that Shanahan is surely responsible for, but right from the start of Dubas's tenure as GM, he's had an over-fondness for shitty, low-event, no-talent veteran pluggers. At first we blamed Babcock for this, but he kept right up with it after getting his own hand picked, supposedly forward-thinking coach. He did also add to our depth a skilled midget or analytics darling here and there as a project, but to a man these guys were failures. Really his only major success in free agency was signing TJ Brodie to a market-value deal, and to a lesser degree having three Toronto boys knock on his door and ask if they could pretty please play here at home for minimum wage (Bunting, Spezza, Giordano).

As far as his cap management goes, a team with the Leafs' cap constraints rolling into this year's playoffs with Alex Kerfoot, Calle Jarnkrok, Justin Holl and Matt Murray taking up a combined $12M and change is a cap management crime against humanity. The Tavares contract also looms as an obvious mistake that's only getting worse with time, as some of us predicted back when it was first signed. We're also staring down the barrel of losing one of the best players in the NHL at the age of 26 (or in the best-case scenario, giving him a significant raise) because Dubas is the only GM in the league who paid his star player the kind of top dollar AAV that usually comes with a max-term deal while only managing to get him to commit for five years. Not to mention the way Mitch bent him over a barrel in his negotiations, or how he wiped out basically an entire season of Nylander's prime only to end up giving him pretty much the deal Willy was asking for in the first place.

And in terms of drafting and development...somehow once Dubas graduated from the Marlies to the big job, we became an organization terrified to give any of our best young players trust, patience and real opportunities at the NHL level. Sandin getting dumped, Lilly & Timmins getting benched and nobody on the Marlies getting a sniff of an NHL job after the mid-point of the season were the latest egregious examples of this.

He also did the familiar Toronto GM thing where he completed every off-season with glaring holes still present on his roster, and left himself scrambling to plug them by shooting a goddamn firehose of draft picks and futures down the drain for rentals at the trade deadline. That he might've plucked some worthwhile players out of the draft with what few, later picks he held on to doesn't excuse this, IMO. And the jury is still out on the quality of his picks, considering Rasmus Sandin (RIP) and Pontus Holmberg were the only Dubas picks to play 20 or more games in the NHL this year.

Anyway, tl;dr---as Presto succinctly put it a while back---Dubas just turned out to be Burke with glasses (though minus the ability to win a trade involving players off his NHL roster). So while I totally understand anyone having doubts about Shanahan or being worried about where we go from here, I don't really understand mourning Dubas's departure. His time was up and he had to go, even before he all but begged Shanahan to fire him on live television.
 
Agree with everything except the Tavares part. There was no mistake there. It was a great add and should’ve resulted in at least a couple of Cups if Dubie didn’t make the other errors around overpaying on contracts, drafting (to a lesser extent), trading, and throwing a million picks away.

It can still result in a couple of cups if Nubie can do what his predecessor failed to do, which is to surround the core with the right supporting talent to win, including playing our own kids.
 
Chipping in my two cents here late in the game.

And now that I've typed this out, it's turned into a bit of a lengthy unhinged rant, but here we go:


I'm a little annoyed that, in the end, a press conference was the reason Shanahan decided to shit-can Dubas. But for an altogether different reason than Montana---I don't think Shanahan should have ever entertained bringing him back in the first place because Dubas richly deserved to be fired purely based on his job performance. And I'm pretty happy to see him go.

He does seem like a genuinely decent human being in a league that doesn't have enough of those. And in terms of social causes, Dubas seems to be pretty closely aligned to my own sensibilities. And I appreciate both those things. But the bottom line is that as a GM, he didn't end up being the kind of manager he was advertised to be. He was supposed to be a forward-thinking, analytical GM who'd keep our core together while surrounding them with a strong supporting cast through a combination of a strong focus on the draft, developing from within, smart cap management and identifying market inefficiencies on the trade and free agent markets.

And...that just didn't happen.

As far as smart adds through free agency goes, some people are trying to retcon this into a recent development that Shanahan is surely responsible for, but right from the start of Dubas's tenure as GM, he's had an over-fondness for shitty, low-event, no-talent veteran pluggers. At first we blamed Babcock for this, but he kept right up with it after getting his own hand picked, supposedly forward-thinking coach. He did also add to our depth a skilled midget or analytics darling here and there as a project, but to a man these guys were failures. Really his only major success in free agency was signing TJ Brodie to a market-value deal, and to a lesser degree having three Toronto boys knock on his door and ask if they could pretty please play here at home for minimum wage (Bunting, Spezza, Giordano).

As far as his cap management goes, a team with the Leafs' cap constraints rolling into this year's playoffs with Alex Kerfoot, Calle Jarnkrok, Justin Holl and Matt Murray taking up a combined $12M and change is a cap management crime against humanity. The Tavares contract also looms as an obvious mistake that's only getting worse with time, as some of us predicted back when it was first signed. We're also staring down the barrel of losing one of the best players in the NHL at the age of 26 (or in the best-case scenario, giving him a significant raise) because Dubas is the only GM in the league who paid his star player the kind of top dollar AAV that usually comes with a max-term deal while only managing to get him to commit for five years. Not to mention the way Mitch bent him over a barrel in his negotiations, or how he wiped out basically an entire season of Nylander's prime only to end up giving him pretty much the deal Willy was asking for in the first place.

And in terms of drafting and development...somehow once Dubas graduated from the Marlies to the big job, we became an organization terrified to give any of our best young players trust, patience and real opportunities at the NHL level. Sandin getting dumped, Lilly & Timmins getting benched and nobody on the Marlies getting a sniff of an NHL job after the mid-point of the season were the latest egregious examples of this.

He also did the familiar Toronto GM thing where he completed every off-season with glaring holes still present on his roster, and left himself scrambling to plug them by shooting a goddamn firehose of draft picks and futures down the drain for rentals at the trade deadline. That he might've plucked some worthwhile players out of the draft with what few, later picks he held on to doesn't excuse this, IMO. And the jury is still out on the quality of his picks, considering Rasmus Sandin (RIP) and Pontus Holmberg were the only Dubas picks to play 20 or more games in the NHL this year.

Anyway, tl;dr---as Presto succinctly put it a while back---Dubas just turned out to be Burke with glasses (though minus the ability to win a trade involving players off his NHL roster). So while I totally understand anyone having doubts about Shanahan or being worried about where we go from here, I don't really understand mourning Dubas's departure. His time was up and he had to go, even before he all but begged Shanahan to fire him on live television.
you didn't even tell us which one you thought it was like - the hunger games or game of thrones?
 
I mean, feel like the speculation is going a bit far re: wife leaving, kids taken away talk.

He just said it takes a toll on them stress wise. We're extrapolating a fair bit here.
I don't know your experiences in this and again this is meant with respect due but unless he's an emo snowflake it was something serious from the wife.

I've been up to my eyeballs in work stress, lawsuits etc and nothing affected me like my wife's threats. Nothing.

So maybe I'm drawing on personal experience and recency bias but I've done a heck of a lot of meditation and soul searching on this and I just don't believe it was because of a coup attempt gone badly. You wouldn't even mention your wife and family in that scenario, perhaps one as a parting statement, but not at the level he fell on his sword.

I've been in this situation where kids and money fuck up a lot in a relationship where one spouse is being ignored and I'll fully admit my fault in diving into work to build something for us and not balancing it properly.

I now try to warn workaholics of this.

Sure it's speculating but I've now watched both pressers three times and what I see is Shanahan thinking its all business because he does not know the severity of the cost on Kyle's marriage with everything and why would he know? Its not something you tell your boss, that you're distracted from your job.

Shanahan believed what he said, so did Dubas, what they didn't do was talk about the exact same thing. One was business, the other was both business and personal.

People rely on occams razor but the razor really says to start from the smallest amount of variables and go from there. I did that and the extraneous information given, especially by Kyle, leads me to believe there's more to it.
 
Fair enough, everyone has their own views based on personal experience. I don't think I'm going to go there re: too much speculation into what the wife is doing.
 
Back
Top