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The Motherfucking 2021 Playoffs Thread

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LeafGm said:
So, Price let in goals on his third and fourth shots against, but stopped the next 13.

And Hutch pitches a 39-save shutout for the win, to follow up a 41-save victory on Friday where he allowed two goals.





I don't love it, but it's hard to argue it's not true.

At the end of the day, he put up a .919 SV and a winning record through eight games with the Leafs this year. He's also strung together a bit of a hot streak to end the year with these two games in the AHL and stopping 32 of 34 shots against Calgary in his final NHL game of the year.

That's a lot more promising than anything we've seen from Rittich in either Calgary or Toronto, or from Fred.

It'd be a hell of a ballsy move to hand the backup goalie's ballcap to Hutch though, and park Fred's bloated ego in the press box along with the guy Dubas paid a 3rd rounder to rent at the deadline. Don't think I see it happening.
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If the job was being given on merit this season, it would be his.
 
Those are the first updated gsva numbers we've seen in over a month - since the trade deadline - because Dom has been fucking with me.
 
Unfortunately he doesnt include any updated numbers for galy and Engvall or anyone else not projected to start - they were at 0.4 and 0.1 a month ago but I figure their late season scoring streaks likely bumped those numbers up substantially.
 
Eyeballing the numbers - muzzin, Tavares, willy, and sandin saw a nice boost in gsva over the last month while rielly and brodie took a pretty big hit. The depth forwards mostly all saw improvement too - Spezza Thornton kerf mikheyev all risers.
 
The numbers on the inside of the main columns are the additional series adjustments he's made to the season number based both on last 6 weeks of play and the play in the head to head matchups.
 
Just wanted to strip out the series adjustments (even though I like the last-6-weeks adjustment) in order to make some comps with other teams....but here's how it looks with them stripped out vs mtl:

Screenshot_20210518-095438_Sheets.jpg
 
"This is the second most uneven series of the first round, behind only the Colorado-St. Louis series. A probability that high feels uncomfortable enough, but this feels much worse. It’s over 80 percent and it’s the Leafs. That math simply does not compute for a team that is cursed.

But it’s hard to spin it any other way given the information at hand."
 
MindzEye said:
3 good goalies bud. You maybe should tuck your opinion on goaltending in your back pocket. Our best Stanley Cup chances in 50+ years is resting solely on the shoulders of a 29 yr old with less than 100 games played in the NHL who has had depression issues in the past so severe that he almost left professional hockey to join the military. I'm pulling for him and obviously am thrilled at how he's playing this season, but to pretend that our goaltending situation hasn't been bottled by management for the last 2 years is nonsense.
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Feel a whole lot better about that than all these other teams starting guys with loads of experience that aren't very good - and especially love that we no longer are in situation where we feel the need to stick with one guy come hell or highwater.

MindzEye said:
There's a difference between defence first and defence only. TJ Brodie bring offensive value with his defensive excellence. Riley Nash is a defence only player that we're plugging into our top 9. I have no qualms with players who are excellent defensively, but they need to be able to handle and move the puck.
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Brodie is pretty poop offensively tho.

MindzEye said:
"nuts", "yelling"

Give me a fucking break.
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so angry.

(but seriously - you've been quite up in arms about all of these moves)

MindzEye said:
How about over the last 2 months instead, because who gives a **** about how we looked at the start of the year.

#2 5v5 goals for
#4 5v5 expected goals for
#30 PP goals for
#5 PP expect goals for


#8 5v5 goals against
#3 5v5 expected goals against
#12 PK goals against
#11 PK expected goals against
#16 5v5 SV%
#14 PK SV%

It's almost like our needs at the deadline were powerplay help (especially if we insist on balanced units as it appears that we do) and goaltending help and not 5v5 defensive help.
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now that dom finally came out with the numbers for the series, we can see the breakdown for our last 20 games clearly in the column on the right here.....and unsurprisingly it says the same thing - super elite offensively, very good but not quite elite defensively.

Screenshot_20210518-092539_Chrome.jpg
 
Must suck to have spent a #3 pick on a guy that is benched in the playoffs for a handful of replacement level players.
 
leafman101 said:
Must suck to have spent a #3 pick on a guy that is benched in the playoffs for a handful of replacement level players.
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So they’ve got one of their #3 picks in their pressbox, and another one of their #3 picks in our pressbox!

And the guy the Leafs took two picks later is still a top-pairing defensemen on this team.

Let us stop and give thanks for the fact that, since Nazem Kadri, the Leafs are on an unbroken streak of hitting on all their top-10 draft picks.
 
zeke said:
Feel a whole lot better about that than all these other teams starting guys with loads of experience that aren't very good - and especially love that we no longer are in situation where we feel the need to stick with one guy come hell or highwater.
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Well...except we are in a situation where we need to stick with one guy come hell or high water. We're as pot committed to our starting goaltender (or should be) as Tampa is.
zeke said:
Brodie is pretty poop offensively tho.
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He's fine at moving the puck and has a positive impact on shot generation.
zeke said:
so angry.

(but seriously - you've been quite up in arms about all of these moves)
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Yeah, for reasons stated. There's a real risk that our management group blinked after the loss to Columbus. I just don't value plugs like Nash in general and plugging them into your top 9 is a bad idea.
zeke said:
now that dom finally came out with the numbers for the series, we can see the breakdown for our last 20 games clearly in the column on the right here.....and unsurprisingly it says the same thing - super elite offensively, very good but not quite elite defensively.
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lol

5th in xg = super elite
6th in xg against = very good but not quite elite defensively.


That is a textbook definition of getting Zeke'd.

Talk about the need to improve the 6th best 5v5 defence over the 27th best PP.
 
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