Oh I'll take a standings bet, but you wouldn't back up your words in this discussion, in spite of how over confident you were in your opinion...in other words, pretty much par for the course.
The New Division
- Thread starter PlayerToBeNamedLater
- Start date
Oh I'll take a standings bet, but you wouldn't back up your words in this discussion, in spite of how over confident you were in your opinion...in other words, pretty much par for the course.
JaysCyYoung
Legend
I said nothing about goal differential once.
I'm confident that the Leafs will score significantly more goals than the Sens. I'm not as confident that they will prevent as many.
I'm confident that the Leafs will score significantly more goals than the Sens. I'm not as confident that they will prevent as many.
The Sens allowed fewer shots per game than the uber talented Leafs blueline...regular and post season.
PlayerToBeNamedLater
Well-known member
Leafs did allow a lot of shots. Too many. But they played a lot of the game without the puck.
The Sens had a good amount of puck possession (10th in the league), but still allowed a ton of shots. That's bad.
If goaltending isn't good-great, the Sens will miss the playoffs.
Funny they have such good puck possession stats when all their D men were handling it like a grenade...
PlayerToBeNamedLater
Well-known member
The Sens had a good forechecking team.
But with the amazing Reimer and their far superior D corps, they Leafs should have no problem preventing more goals.
zeke
Well-known member
His formula is a prediction for next year based on the advanced stats, and factoring in injuries.
But Ottawa's actual advanced stats last year were merely above average, not excellent.
Of course, the underlying assumption of his analysis - like most other advanced statisticians - is that they for some reason assume that shots for and against will stay constant from year to year. It's a bizarre assumption, to say the least.
While losing Spezza and Karlsson, the Sens increased their shot differential from -0.6 to +1.9. For some reason, this is assumed to be absolutely sustainable, while the shooting percentages are not. The Sens improved their advanced stats while losing Spezza and Karlsson - why wouldn't we assume their advanced stats would get worse when they return? sure seemed to when they returned in the playoffs, at least.
Leafs dropped from a -2.5 shot diff team to a -5.9 shot diff team, but scored more and gave up less. Does anyone actually think the Leafs played worse last year than the year before?
Pens led the league with a +6.5 last year, and dropped all the way down to +0.7 this year....yet went from a 108pt team to a 123pt team, even with Crosby and Malkin injured.
The 'advanced statisticians' have taken a very small edge for shot-based metrics over goal-based metrics, and even though that edge still does not actually correlate strongly with results (though indeed, slightly better than the goal-based metrics do), they have somehow assumed that shot-based metrics are actually stable and consistent and predictable, when they are anything but.
Useful stats, but the mindset that shots for/against are stable, and goals for/against are merely luck-based variations that inevitably regress towards the shots metrics, is entirely wrongheaded.
But their stone handed D would turn it over as soon as they touched the puck, right?
PlayerToBeNamedLater
Well-known member
The key with the Leafs is maintaining more puck possession. Additions of Clarkson/Bolland and full seasons from Lupul and Gardiner should help that greatly.
PlayerToBeNamedLater
Well-known member
The blueline isn't very mobile, nor is it great with puck beyond Karlsson.
Cowen, Phillips, Methot are very limited offensive players -- and these guys are projected top 4 guys.
PlayerToBeNamedLater
Well-known member
Possession stats are just one indicator of success. Just being a good possession team doesn't mean you will automatically be a good team in the standings. Just like being near the top in goals scored doesn't mean you are automatically going to be a good team -- just ask TB. Or ask Florida how ranking high in SV% year after year with Vokoun worked out for them.
I'm a big believer in possession stats, but there are different paths to success.
I'm a big believer in possession stats, but there are different paths to success.
zeke
Well-known member
There's no doubt our posession stats have to improve, but the additions of Lupul, Gardiner, Clarkson, Bolland, and Ranger should help quite a bit in that regard.
and I'll point out that I'm pretty sure our worst possession times of the game were when we tried to sit on leads. That's when we really seemed to get outshot by a ridiclous amount.
The leafs used to have great possession stats a few years back when we never had the lead, but would always pour it on in the third period and outshoot the other team a million to one, but still lose. The opposite happened this year.
Here's how the Leafs Fenwick changed according to game situation:
Up 2: 39.83
Up 1: 41.42
Tied: 44.85
Down 1: 47.25
Down 2: 51.28
So the Leafs were an absolutely pathetic possession team when they were up 2 goals, but were a decent possession team when they were down 2 goals.
The Leafs just happened to be up 2 goals much more often than they were down 2 goals. If they had just trailed in more games, they would have drastically improved their fenwick....but, of course, would likely have lost more games.
And you see this trend throughout the league - a team's fenwick is almost always better when they are trailing then when they are leading.
and I'll point out that I'm pretty sure our worst possession times of the game were when we tried to sit on leads. That's when we really seemed to get outshot by a ridiclous amount.
The leafs used to have great possession stats a few years back when we never had the lead, but would always pour it on in the third period and outshoot the other team a million to one, but still lose. The opposite happened this year.
Here's how the Leafs Fenwick changed according to game situation:
Up 2: 39.83
Up 1: 41.42
Tied: 44.85
Down 1: 47.25
Down 2: 51.28
So the Leafs were an absolutely pathetic possession team when they were up 2 goals, but were a decent possession team when they were down 2 goals.
The Leafs just happened to be up 2 goals much more often than they were down 2 goals. If they had just trailed in more games, they would have drastically improved their fenwick....but, of course, would likely have lost more games.
And you see this trend throughout the league - a team's fenwick is almost always better when they are trailing then when they are leading.
How are you adding Lupul Zeke, he was already on the team?
but don't you laugh at them for doing so?
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Don't blame me that you don't understand math, Teach.
If Goalie A stops 94% of 2460 shots and Goalie B stop 92% of 2460 shots, calculate the difference in goals scored on either goalie:
Make sure to show your steps.
As for the Goals Created portion of the analysis, take it up with Hockey-Reference. It's their formula, I was just applying it to the Sens situation.
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MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
And you're failing to take into account here the diminished opportunity those same players will now have. I didn't ignore this, I simply figured it would be a wash. Players who saw unwarranted PP time won't anymore.
Of course, you're also not taking into account that Ryan needs to bounce back to do anything more than simply replace Alfie (who is obviously gone), that Silfverberg needs to be replaced internally as well, and Gonchar was huge in Karlsson's absence last season...and of course is now gone.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Where do I get in on this?
zeke
Well-known member
not at all. Ottawa's offense should improve significantly next year if those two are healthy.