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The Stats Thread

Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

wiseguy1 said:
I dont know. For example Habs were a decent team last year, Eller was -15. You cant argue the fact he had a poor regular season last year.
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Sure, but +/- doesn't tell me how bad he was.

You know what did tell me how bad he was, though? When his two most frequent linemates, Gallagher & Galchenyuk, produced at a high pace when they were off Eller's line. I think both were at 0.6 pts / 60 minutes played with Eller and 0.8 pts / 60 minutes played without Eller.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

GGpX said:
???

Are we talking about the same DD who is the fourth center option on the PK? The same DD who gets virtually no defensive zone starts, while getting the most offensive zone starts? The same DD who centers this team's first line that includes its best goal scorer?


DD is a lot of things. Very sound defensively, though? No. He's okay at best defensively.
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He actually is a guy who backchecks and supports his dmen well be it in puck battles or the transition.

As for faceoffs he takes offensive zone faceoffs for the same reason For instance that Malhotra takes defensive zone faceoffs... malhotra is a defensive minded player while DD is offense.

DD is in the lineup to generate offense why woukdn't he take most of his faceoffs in the offensive zone???
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

GGpX said:
Sure, but +/- doesn't tell me how bad he was.

You know what did tell me how bad he was, though? When his two most frequent linemates, Gallagher & Galchenyuk, produced at a high pace when they were off Eller's line. I think both were at 0.6 pts / 60 minutes played with Eller and 0.8 pts / 60 minutes played without Eller.
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Well its like anything else involving analysis. If you see a deviation, it raises an alarm , you do a further analysis. So it has its use.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

+\- without context is useless but it's quite useful when used within context. Ovechkin minus last year wasn't an accident for example.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

wiseguy1 said:
I dont know. For example Habs were a decent team last year, Eller was -15. You cant argue the fact he had a poor regular season last year.
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Well nobody is foolish enough to think that +/- will always show the opposite of how a player did. In that case Eller's +/- was awful and he was awful. Subban was a -4... was he awful?

Wins is a poor goalie stat but it doesn't mean that good goalies won't sometimes have a lot of wins.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

GrandWazoo said:
+\- without context is useless but it's quite useful when used within context. Ovechkin minus last year wasn't an accident for example.
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I think that's more a product of it's randomness. Sometimes it appears to be "right" and others it's "wrong." You could flip a coin for each player and get similar results.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

GGpX said:
Sure, but +/- doesn't tell me how bad he was.

You know what did tell me how bad he was, though? When his two most frequent linemates, Gallagher & Galchenyuk, produced at a high pace when they were off Eller's line. I think both were at 0.6 pts / 60 minutes played with Eller and 0.8 pts / 60 minutes played without Eller.
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I don't think anyone will disagree that its 100% accurate measure but you can't disregard it and say it has no validity at all...to a certain degree it does say something about your play 5 on 5....to what degree is obviously the debate
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

DonKay said:
He actually is a guy who backchecks and supports his dmen well be it in puck battles or the transition.

As for faceoffs he takes offensive zone faceoffs for the same reason For instance that Malhotra takes defensive zone faceoffs... malhotra is a defensive minded player while DD is offense.

DD is in the lineup to generate offense why woukdn't he take most of his faceoffs in the offensive zone???
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Thus making it much more likely that he'll be on the ice for a goal for instead of a goal against because he has the advantage of very often starting in the offensive zone. In reverse, not that I defend Eller, but he starts a lot more in the defensive zone, thus making it far more likely that he'll get scored on than he will create a goal.

+/- is a worthless stat.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

DonKay said:
He actually is a guy who backchecks and supports his dmen well be it in puck battles or the transition.

As for faceoffs he takes offensive zone faceoffs for the same reason For instance that Malhotra takes defensive zone faceoffs... malhotra is a defensive minded player while DD is offense.

DD is in the lineup to generate offense why woukdn't he take most of his faceoffs in the offensive zone???
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Yep and again I know people do not like the +/-.... but he only has 10 points (some of it on the PP) and is a + 10. I think that is some indication that his line for the most part is outplaying the opposition.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

DonKay said:
I don't think anyone will disagree that its 100% accurate measure but you can't disregard it and say it has no validity at all...to a certain degree it does say something about your play 5 on 5....to what degree is obviously the debate
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Complete and utter fallacy.

Yesterday, someone brought up the example that Marian Hossa was a career +128 or something. We can all agree that Hossa's a very good two way player. A top-3 two-way player in the league in his prime.

Well, if you look at Marian Hossa's career, he's been a positive in the +/- category his whole career with the exception of one season. With the exception of that one season, his teams never won less than 38 games and he, like most of his team mates, were positive +/- players. However, that one year, which happened to be during his prime years, when he was on that awful team that finished second to last in the East, he was -14. So did Marian Hossa become a shitty defensive player overnight and suddenly remembered how to play defense the second he left Atlanta? If not, then what does the -14 mean except that he was on a shitty team?
 
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Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

Habspatrol said:
I think that's more a product of it's randomness. Sometimes it appears to be "right" and others it's "wrong." You could flip a coin for each player and get similar results.
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Exactly, it depends what variables you are bringing up.

Ok, so this dman has a big time minus number because he plays 28 minutes a game and vs other teams top lines...while this guy has very good +\- because he never faces top six forwards etc....

It's not a perfect picture of a player because players play in different circumstances and along side different caliber players...but at times you can certainly disect an issue on a player like Ovechkin who puts up 50 golas and has an awful +/-
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

wiseguy1 said:
Yep and again I know people do not like the +/-.... but he only has 10 points (some of it on the PP) and is a + 10. I think that is some indication that his line for the most part is outplaying the opposition.
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Now you're getting closer.

There are 6 Hab players on the ice. That means that Eller or any other individual player is 16.66% of the players who could potentially be "responsible" for a goal for or against, but all 5 skaters get credit or punished.
 
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Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

GGpX said:
Complete and utter fallacy.

Yesterday, someone brought up the example that Marian Hossa was a career +128 or something. We can all agree that Hossa's a very good two way player. A top-3 two-way player in the league in his prime.

Well, if you look at Marian Hossa's career, he's been a positive in the +/- category his whole career with the exception of one season. With the exception of that one season, his teams never won less than 38 games and he, like most of his team mates, were positive +/- players. However, that one year, which happened to be during his prime years, when he was on that awful team that finished second to last in the East, he was -14. So did Marian Hossa become a shitty defensive player overnight and suddenly remembered how to play defense the second he left Atlanta? If not, then what does the -14 mean except that he was on a shitty team?
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Maybe being a -14 on a really really bad team isn't such a bad stat...where there -20 or -25 players on those awful teams Hossa was on?

No one is saying its 100% accurate but like HP said you need a context most likely for that stat just like many stats out there.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

It was already said best, +/- is an alarm. It's a basic indicator that can signal that further analysis is required. It is not accurate in it's own right but it is an early warning system.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

Habspatrol said:
Now you're getting closer.

There are 6 Hab players on the ice. That means that Eller or any other individual player is 16.66% of the players who could potentially be "responsible" for a goal for or against, but all 5 skaters get credit or punished.
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And there are plenty of layers to this, for example the centre has a lot of defensive responsibilities. Doesnt the centre deserve a good deal of credit if his line is consistently +? I say this because people like to argue that DD looks good only because he gets to play on the top line. Maybe its the other way around when you look at defensive play? And what if you are a significant minus player on a good team and you have been moved around quite a bit in terms of linemates (like Eller last year).
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

Habspatrol said:
Now you're getting closer.

There are 6 Hab players on the ice. That means that Eller or any other individual player is 16.66% of the players who could potentially be "responsible" for a goal for or against, but all 5 skaters get credit or punished.
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How is that diff from corsi which will credit all on ice for shot for and punish shot against even if wasn't your guy who shot against or you who took shot?
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

TheCountofMonteCristo said:
How is that diff from corsi which will credit all on ice for shot for and punish shot against even if wasn't your guy who shot against or you who took shot?
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Corsi is like a glorified +/-. It's a bit less flawed but I'm not a fan of it either.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

I think corsi makes more sense because it has larger numbers. Every shift (or almost every shift) there's 1 or multiple shot attempts. But for actual goals, players are on for very few over the course of a game. So the randomness will even out quicker.

+/- to me is not a useless stat, but it's useless without context. If you say Hossa is -14, that tells me nothing. But if he was -14 when nobody else on the team was above -20, maybe that was good. I think relative +/- can be a non-useless stat, but people who just quote is as if it's a proxy for something else without mentioning the context should be shot.
 
Re: Habs News & Notes: 2014-15 Season

Corsi on it's own is a bad stat.

Corsi, mixed with zone starts, quality of competition, and various other analytics, is a good stat.
 
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