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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

zeke said:
Reyes had a big year last year at 2 levels but otherwise has been a moderately above average bat with middling bb and k rates and no defensive value. I get he has big power but he probably settles in as 2war type. Not my kind of prospect. So yeah I take SWR.
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.345 babip last year, .265 this year. Pulling the ball more, hitting the ball harder, striking out slightly less, just turned 24. Defensive metrics are much better this year (from bad to average) in right field, just turn 24 a couple of weeks ago.

There's no way you would take an 18 yr old pitcher in A (with good numbers for his age, absolutely) over a just turned 24 yr old legit starting OF with 35+ HR power who looks a pretty good bet to be 120 wRC+ or better for most of the rest of the decade.
 
axlsalinger said:
Yeah, he's nothing special other than big power. A better version of Randal Grichuk.
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Yes, but the other side of the equation is an 18 yr old that is at best even odds to even make the show in any sort of real capacity, and I'm being really kind with "even odds". Taking a quick scan through A ball statistics for 18 yr olds who have put up comparable numbers and you've got 2 other prospects (Patino & Green), Knapp (arm fell off), Erbe (arm fell off), Tim Collins (5'7 reliever), Taijuan Walker (yuge bust, arm keeps falling off...was the hype best prospect of 2015), and in fairness, Madison Bumgarner.

If we include 19 yr olds just to get a bigger sample (but keeping in mind of course that it's harder to do it at 18 against A ball comp than at 19) since 2006, we get this list:

Will Inman: Thumped at higher levels, 0.0 WAR
Jake McGee: Converted to pretty dominant reliever, 7.0 WAR
Clayton Kershaw: ****ing legend, 64.4 WAR
Tyler Robertson: Converted to reliever, sucks. -.5 WAR
Trevor Cahill: K's didn't carry through the high minors, carved out okay career despite arm falling off regularly. 9.9 WAR
Danny Duffy: Uber prospect that didn't pan out. Okay MLB career, 14 WAR to date. Arm kept falling off.
Benino Pruneda: Last seen as a reliever in the mexican league, 0.0 WAR
Trevor May: Former top 100 prospect, got beat around as a starter, converted to decent enough lateish inning reliever, 4 WAR
Julio Rodriguez: Never threw an inning above AA. 0.0 WAR
Shelby Miller: Another uber prospect with arm physiology that would violently stop working at times. 7.4 WAR
Cody Buckel: Never threw an inning above AA
AJ Cole: K rate didn't carry through the high minors, journeyman MLB reliever. 0.2 WAR
Jose Fernandez: Stud, don't drink and boat. 14.5 WAR
Noah Syndergaard: Stud with ongoing arm issues. 17 WAR
Clayton Blackburn: K rates did not carry into the high minors, 26 and stuck at AAA
Tyler Glasnow: Was looking awful busty, Tampa might have fixed him and then broke him. Currently on 60 day DL with "forearm" issues. 2.3 WAR
Yoel Mecias: Never threw an inning over A+
Lucas Sims: Might be good, probably isn't. Was one of those hype beast prospects who flopped but might still carve out a career. 0.2 WAR
Alex Reyes: Another hype beast. Has thrown 7 innings in the show since 2016. If he can stay healthy he might be elite. 1.0 WAR
Lucas Giolito: One of the most hyped pitching prospects of the last 5 years, looked like trash until this year. But this year does in fact count. Looks like a pretty good #2-3 this year. 2.8 WAR total so far, short of exploding arm syndrome, this will go up a fair bit.

I'll stop at 2014 because no one moving forward has made the show yet from this demographic

Throwing the whole bag together, there's definitely 4 (Madbum, Kershaw, Jose, Noah), probably a 5th (Giolito), and maybe a 6th (Duffy) that are worth passing on a 24 yr old ~2.5 WAR (Zips projection) OF.

Don't fall into the trap of falling in love with super young pitching prospects because they look great in A ball.
 
It is a good reminder that there are no guarantees when it comes to young pitchers. But really that list is all over the map - great players, bad players, mid-range, injured, still have a chance. It doesn't tell us much really, other than prospects can break or bust.

If you really want Franmil Reyes, keep in mind that SD traded for the outfield prospect, not the pitcher. Does Cincy value Stroman at the level of Bauer? Who knows? And again, we already have Grichuk in right, 115 wRC+ last year (Reyes at 116 wRC+ in this, his breakout season). Rather have Reyes but not at the cost of Stroman.

Bottom line: Cleveland got more back for Bauer (due to volume), but I think it's fair to say that a lot of GM's would value Bauer over Stroman. Jays should have probably gotten a guy like Moss or Nova as a throw-in.
 
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MindzEye said:
.345 babip last year, .265 this year. Pulling the ball more, hitting the ball harder, striking out slightly less, just turned 24. Defensive metrics are much better this year (from bad to average) in right field, just turn 24 a couple of weeks ago.

There's no way you would take an 18 yr old pitcher in A (with good numbers for his age, absolutely) over a just turned 24 yr old legit starting OF with 35+ HR power who looks a pretty good bet to be 120 wRC+ or better for most of the rest of the decade.
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He's managed a 120wrc+ only one year since he's been pro. And he needed a high 300s babip to do it. Right now he projects around 110 going forward and I'm not even sold he'll maintain that.
 
axlsalinger said:
That's how you rebuild a team. Acquire as many young assets as you can, and when you start to become good you assess where your weaknesses are, and fill those positions via free agency or trade.
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So you agree they need to spend on not rely just on rookies? Not sure I can name any recent rotations that won a world series filled with rookies.
 
JonHeyman

There is interest in Aaron Sanchez. Many contenders see him as a bullpen star. He’d prefer to start, however, and believes he has straightened out his long-running blister issues.
 
JeffPassan

First baseman Jesus Aguilar has been traded from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Tampa Bay Rays, sources tell ESPN.
 
GregorChisholm

Borucki went out and threw and he's not feeling right. He's going on the IL with left elbow inflammation. #BlueJays
 
MindzEye said:
Yes, but the other side of the equation is an 18 yr old that is at best even odds to even make the show in any sort of real capacity, and I'm being really kind with "even odds". Taking a quick scan through A ball statistics for 18 yr olds who have put up comparable numbers and you've got 2 other prospects (Patino & Green), Knapp (arm fell off), Erbe (arm fell off), Tim Collins (5'7 reliever), Taijuan Walker (yuge bust, arm keeps falling off...was the hype best prospect of 2015), and in fairness, Madison Bumgarner.

If we include 19 yr olds just to get a bigger sample (but keeping in mind of course that it's harder to do it at 18 against A ball comp than at 19) since 2006, we get this list:

Will Inman: Thumped at higher levels, 0.0 WAR
Jake McGee: Converted to pretty dominant reliever, 7.0 WAR
Clayton Kershaw: ****ing legend, 64.4 WAR
Tyler Robertson: Converted to reliever, sucks. -.5 WAR
Trevor Cahill: K's didn't carry through the high minors, carved out okay career despite arm falling off regularly. 9.9 WAR
Danny Duffy: Uber prospect that didn't pan out. Okay MLB career, 14 WAR to date. Arm kept falling off.
Benino Pruneda: Last seen as a reliever in the mexican league, 0.0 WAR
Trevor May: Former top 100 prospect, got beat around as a starter, converted to decent enough lateish inning reliever, 4 WAR
Julio Rodriguez: Never threw an inning above AA. 0.0 WAR
Shelby Miller: Another uber prospect with arm physiology that would violently stop working at times. 7.4 WAR
Cody Buckel: Never threw an inning above AA
AJ Cole: K rate didn't carry through the high minors, journeyman MLB reliever. 0.2 WAR
Jose Fernandez: Stud, don't drink and boat. 14.5 WAR
Noah Syndergaard: Stud with ongoing arm issues. 17 WAR
Clayton Blackburn: K rates did not carry into the high minors, 26 and stuck at AAA
Tyler Glasnow: Was looking awful busty, Tampa might have fixed him and then broke him. Currently on 60 day DL with "forearm" issues. 2.3 WAR
Yoel Mecias: Never threw an inning over A+
Lucas Sims: Might be good, probably isn't. Was one of those hype beast prospects who flopped but might still carve out a career. 0.2 WAR
Alex Reyes: Another hype beast. Has thrown 7 innings in the show since 2016. If he can stay healthy he might be elite. 1.0 WAR
Lucas Giolito: One of the most hyped pitching prospects of the last 5 years, looked like trash until this year. But this year does in fact count. Looks like a pretty good #2-3 this year. 2.8 WAR total so far, short of exploding arm syndrome, this will go up a fair bit.

I'll stop at 2014 because no one moving forward has made the show yet from this demographic

Throwing the whole bag together, there's definitely 4 (Madbum, Kershaw, Jose, Noah), probably a 5th (Giolito), and maybe a 6th (Duffy) that are worth passing on a 24 yr old ~2.5 WAR (Zips projection) OF.

Don't fall into the trap of falling in love with super young pitching prospects because they look great in A ball.
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This is an excellent post.

You could take guys like Bumgarner and Kershaw off the list as possible outcomes as they were both high first round picks with much better stuff than SWR. And they’re both LHP.

Syndergaard is the dream outcome except he had about 4-5mph on SWR and better secondary stuff. Even then, people thought Syndergaard might not develop a third pitch and would end up in the bullpen. SWR needs to develop a second pitch before that’s even a realistic outcome.

As for Bauer, he is a free agent at the end of this year. He was better than Stroman last year when he had a career-defyingly low HR rate. Now that it’s back to normal, he is just who he has always been. Even if you think he is better than Stroman, the return shouldn’t be in the same ballpark. And yet...
 
Ken_Rosenthal

#BlueJays’ Ken Giles remains in play after receiving a cortisone shot in his elbow yesterday. #Yankees, #Rays have at least inquired, sources say.

andersenreports

Can confirm Blue Jays have received interest in Aaron Sanchez. #Angels are among teams that have inquired, per source. Nothing imminent.
 
manny said:
This is an excellent post.

You could take guys like Bumgarner and Kershaw off the list as possible outcomes as they were both high first round picks with much better stuff than SWR. And they’re both LHP.

Syndergaard is the dream outcome except he had about 4-5mph on SWR and better secondary stuff. Even then, people thought Syndergaard might not develop a third pitch and would end up in the bullpen. SWR needs to develop a second pitch before that’s even a realistic outcome.

As for Bauer, he is a free agent at the end of this year. He was better than Stroman last year when he had a career-defyingly low HR rate. Now that it’s back to normal, he is just who he has always been. Even if you think he is better than Stroman, the return shouldn’t be in the same ballpark. And yet...
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According to FG, Bauer is arby eligible this year and FA in 2021. Not sure why you think he’s a FA this winter. He isn’t.
 
axlsalinger said:
It is a good reminder that there are no guarantees when it comes to young pitchers. But really that list is all over the map - great players, bad players, mid-range, injured, still have a chance. It doesn't tell us much really, other than prospects can break or bust.
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Eh? That's an interesting take. The takeaway there has to be that even the best pitching prospects at 18 almost always flame out. There's 4 guys who lived up to their billing out of 25+ and as Manny pointed out, 2 of them were high draft picks that were expected to be stars.

If you really want Franmil Reyes, keep in mind that SD traded for the outfield prospect, not the pitcher. Does Cincy value Stroman at the level of Bauer? Who knows? And again, we already have Grichuk in right, 115 wRC+ last year (Reyes at 116 wRC+ in this, his breakout season). Rather have Reyes but not at the cost of Stroman.
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Do they value Stroman at the level of Bauer? Probably not, but the gap isn't a big bag of goodies vs an 18 yr old A ball pitcher and whatever Kay is.

Bottom line: Cleveland got more back for Bauer (due to volume), but I think it's fair to say that a lot of GM's would value Bauer over Stroman. Jays should have probably gotten a guy like Moss or Nova as a throw-in.
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The gap in value between the two packages is immense. Ignoring Reyes for a moment, Logan Allen isn't a bad version of what SWR is likely to turn into. Cruised through to AAA, a year or two ahead of schedule before running into any difficulty.
 
actually it was a terrible post.

1. zips in fact has reyes as about a 2war guy going forward.
2. a prospect having a 1-in-4 shot at being awesome, like mindz' list says, is actually fantastic.
3. but his list kinda sucked anyways, in terms of comparables. he included relievers, he included 19yr olds, and other stuff.


Since 2006, Age 18, A ball, min 10gs, with numbers anywhere close to SWR's, of guys who are no longer prospects:

Bumgarner: 24gs, 2.06fip, 2.75xfip - Ace
S.W.Richardson: 20gs, 2.55fip, 2.28xfip
(Syndergaard: 2gs, 2.03fip, 2.95xfip ----- Ace - only actually pitched 2 games in A as an 18yr old)
M.Perez: 14gs, 2.74fip, 2.88xfip ----- mid rotation
J.Lyles: 26gs, 2.70fip, 2.93xfip ------- bottom-rotation
M.Soroka: 24gs, 2.78fip, 3.21xfip ---- #1 already at age 21
T.Walker: 18gs, 2.86fip, 2.94xfip ----- Mid-rotation
R.Osuna: 10gs, 3.69fip, 2.73xfip ----- Ace closer
M.Banuelos: 19gs, 3.03fip, 3.38xfip -- Bust
J.Knapp: 17gs, 3.13fip, 3.39xfip ---- ace prospect that blew out his shoulder
T.Skaggs: 18gs, 3.51fip, 3.34xfip --- Mid-rotation


first thing you notice is that almost nobody does what SWR has already done. second thing you notice is that the success rate for guys who come anywhere remotely close to that kind of performance is almost 100%. Third thing you notice is that the only guys who legit put up similar numbers are both aces.
 
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