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OT: The Toronto Blue Jays

Ken_Rosenthal

Source confirms: #Nationals get Daniel Hudson from #BlueJays for Kyle Johnston. First reported: Scott Mitchell of TSN in Canada.

bnicholsonsmith

Kyle Johnston's a 23-year-old right-hander who has a 4.03 ERA, 100 strikeouts & 37 walks in 105 innings at high-A #BlueJays
 
Kyle johnston, 23yr old, A+, middling numbers.

I'll bite my tongue here.

this is actually his 22yr old season, as he just turned 23 this month, but still old for his level by a good bit.
 
zeke said:
Kyle johnston, 23yr old, A+, middling numbers.

I'll bite my tongue here.

this is actually his 22yr old season, as he just turned 23 this month, but still old for his level by a good bit.
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It fits in with what they got for Phelps. Isnt even dominant in high a
 
zeke said:
actually it was a terrible post.

1. zips in fact has reyes as about a 2war guy going forward.
2. a prospect having a 1-in-4 shot at being awesome, like mindz' list says, is actually fantastic.
3. but his list kinda sucked anyways, in terms of comparables. he included relievers, he included 19yr olds, and other stuff.


Since 2006, Age 18, A ball, min 10gs, with numbers anywhere close to SWR's, of guys who are no longer prospects:

Bumgarner: 24gs, 2.06fip, 2.75xfip - Ace
S.W.Richardson: 20gs, 2.55fip, 2.28xfip
(Syndergaard: 2gs, 2.03fip, 2.95xfip ----- Ace - only actually pitched 2 games in A as an 18yr old)
M.Perez: 14gs, 2.74fip, 2.88xfip ----- mid rotation
J.Lyles: 26gs, 2.70fip, 2.93xfip ------- bottom-rotation
M.Soroka: 24gs, 2.78fip, 3.21xfip ---- #1 already at age 21
T.Walker: 18gs, 2.86fip, 2.94xfip ----- Mid-rotation
R.Osuna: 10gs, 3.69fip, 2.73xfip ----- Ace closer
M.Banuelos: 19gs, 3.03fip, 3.38xfip -- Bust
J.Knapp: 17gs, 3.13fip, 3.39xfip ---- ace prospect that blew out his shoulder
T.Skaggs: 18gs, 3.51fip, 3.34xfip --- Mid-rotation


first thing you notice is that almost nobody does what SWR has already done. second thing you notice is that the success rate for guys who come anywhere remotely close to that kind of performance is almost 100%. Third thing you notice is that the only guys who legit put up similar numbers are both aces.
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I respect that you like SWR as a prospect even if you don’t like the administration.

However, you’re putting way too much weight in a 20-start sample size in A-ball.

We have to wait and see, but much better than 50% chance that SWR does not amount to anything at all.

Also, with pitchers, injuries are a real thing so you can’t honestly call a guy who blew out his arm and didn’t make the majors a success.
 
zeke said:
He's managed a 120wrc+ only one year since he's been pro.
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He's been a year or two ahead of every level though. Putting up a 115 wRC+ in AA as a 21 yr old is pretty good. Last year in his 22 yr old season he was obviously very good (some of his success was babip driven, absolutely), and this year a 117 wRC+ with improved underlying contact numbers (more pulling, more hard contact, lower babip) suggest future success. He's 15th in average exit velo (7th in FB/LD exit velocity), his launch angle is fantastic (he's a line drive hitter, not a fly ball hitter and despite that is hitting for large power, 23rd in the league in barrels per plate appearance.

He makes very good contact, very regularly. If you want to bet against a 6'5 275 pound monster who makes way above average contact not getting better as he gets older and his power makes pitchers work him more carefully....well okay.


And he needed a high 300s babip to do it. Right now he projects around 110 going forward and I'm not even sold he'll maintain that.
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How does a dude with 117 wRC+ with a .268 babip (despite a great batted ball profile) project as a 110 wRC+ stick going forward?

This is a lot of tap dancing to convince yourself that an 18 yr old pitcher is a worthy return for Stroman.
 
ByRobertMurray

#Brewers and #SFGiants in agreement on significant trade, sources tell The Athletic. Mauricio Dubon to San Francisco.

Joelsherman1

Can confirm #Brewers sending Mauricio Dubon to #SFGiants for Pomeranz and Ray Black
 
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zeke said:
UZR yes, DRS no.
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and it was the opposite last year with DRS thinking he was average and UZR thinking he was bad. Even if we split it down the middle and call him a bit below average as a RF, that probably means he's an average LF.
 
zeke said:
actually it was a terrible post.

1. zips in fact has reyes as about a 2war guy going forward.
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2.4 and they might be under rating his power (they base it on past performance and not underlying batted ball metrics, his contact numbers support his power explosion)

2. a prospect having a 1-in-4 shot at being awesome, like mindz' list says, is actually fantastic.
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Ehhh...4 out of 25-26 guys isn't 1-4
 
so far -6.2uzr/150, and -11 drs. -4.4 defense on fangraphs and -1.8dwar on B/R.

the guy is 275lbs. he's likely at his defensive peak already.
 
MindzEye said:
He's been a year or two ahead of every level though. Putting up a 115 wRC+ in AA as a 21 yr old is pretty good. Last year in his 22 yr old season he was obviously very good (some of his success was babip driven, absolutely), and this year a 117 wRC+ with improved underlying contact numbers (more pulling, more hard contact, lower babip) suggest future success.
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a bit young for his level - he misses the age cutoff by 1 week every year. 1 week older and he'd be just age-appropriate for all those levels.

and 115wRC+ for an all bat prospect is....all sorts of meh.


He's 15th in average exit velo (7th in FB/LD exit velocity), his launch angle is fantastic (he's a line drive hitter, not a fly ball hitter and despite that is hitting for large power, 23rd in the league in barrels per plate appearance.

He makes very good contact, very regularly. If you want to bet against a 6'5 275 pound monster who makes way above average contact not getting better as he gets older and his power makes pitchers work him more carefully....well okay.


How does a dude with 117 wRC+ with a .268 babip (despite a great batted ball profile) project as a 110 wRC+ stick going forward?

This is a lot of tap dancing to convince yourself that an 18 yr old pitcher is a worthy return for Stroman.
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Don't ask me, ask Zips (111wrc+), Steamer (112wrc+), or FG Depth Charts (108wrc+).
 
zeke said:
a bit young for his level - he misses the age cutoff by 1 week every year. 1 week older and he'd be just age-appropriate for all those levels.

and 115wRC+ for an all bat prospect is....all sorts of meh.
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Well, there was that one time he put up a 168 as a 22 yr old in AAA, that was pretty good. Then there was that other time he put up a 122 over his first 640 PA's in the show with a great batted ball profile.

That's not really meh.


Don't ask me, ask Zips (111wrc+), Steamer (112wrc+), or FG Depth Charts (108wrc+).
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That's this year's projection, which he's currently beating. Beating with a .268 babip (all the projections systems had him with a .293-.299 babip)
 
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JeffPassan

Right-hander Zac Gallen is headed to the Arizona Diamondbacks from the Miami Marlins for shortstop prospect Jazz Chisholm, source tells ESPN. Gallen has been very good, with a 2.72 ERA in seven major league starts.
 
zeke said:
so far -6.2uzr/150, and -11 drs. -4.4 defense on fangraphs and -1.8dwar on B/R.

the guy is 275lbs. he's likely at his defensive peak already.
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Yeah probably. With that said, RF is the harder of the two and he's exclusively played RF so far. In the end, doesn't matter. If the power is here to stay (and it looks like it is) and there's a babip correction (which the batted ball profile suggests...he's not out here hitting IFF or pounding a high volume of ground balls. His LD% is solid if unspectacular), coupled with any growth in his plate discipline and he's a wRC+ of 125-130 pretty much every year. That's not a stud, but that's a fringe top 30 bat in MLB. Even if he doesn't improve over his first 600 PA's and he's in the 120 range, that's a top 50-60 bat and an average DH (if he ends up full time DH'ing).

If he can field LF competently, that's a huge plus. If he can be converted to 1B, also a huge plus.
 
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