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OT: American Politics

MindzEye said:
Maybe, but Zelensky played that game already and got extorted for 500 billion in mineral wealth. I think it pays to give Trump flattery when he's not trying to stick something up your ass, sure. But when he's mid rape attempt it's probably time to try something different.
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I think he knew he had to speed this up to where we all knew Trump was going to take Russia’s side - so Europe would speed up for Ukraine to get the arms ready.

This likely accomplished it today. Instead of assuming and Trump playing both sides when he’s already bought by Putin. Now it’s in plain sight. Europe has to now fully support this war for Ukraine as of 12 hours ago or whatever.

I still think China is a wildcard here to keep Ukraine from losing very quickly with USA pulling out. Could see them flip on Russia and try to take over USA’s place with western world with regards to trade and I think weapons etc too. Just too much money for their economy to stay on the outside of this.
 
soco22 said:
I still think China is a wildcard here to keep Ukraine from losing very quickly with USA pulling out.
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I don't think there's a big concern of Ukraine losing quickly here. Russia has spent almost a half of a year trying to take back their own territory in Kursk and failed. Their offensive in prokrovsk has sputtered badly and last reports I saw were that they got countered and gave back some ground. The previous projections of Russian force regenerating starting to hit a wall by mid 2025 are looking prescient at the moment as well. Perun's recent breakdown showed that the average age of Russian contract soldiers has increased huge since the start of the war, so while Russia on paper appears to have a similar force composition, it's actually being made up of progressively older and older men

The median ages of their KIA's are way up. Median age of mobilized troops KIA'd (mostly former military called back to service, but also officer recruits) is 33-35, that's a fairly small group though. Prison "recruit" median KIA ages are 36-38....but both of those groups together are dwarfed in size by the contract volunteers. Median KIA age of those is 42-44 years old with about 6500 KIA's being 50 and above. There have been reports out recently that over half of new recruits from the Moscow region are 45+. You can probably teach a bunch of 50 yr old soldiers to do a pretty nasty job of holding a trench line but doing all that fast moving meat wave Russian style attacking where you have to run across uneven ground under fire? Nah. There's not too many of us built like that after 40. Russian ability to commit to significant offensives is basically nil. Even getting about 11K North Koreans and throwing them all at re taking Kursk has gone very, very poorly.

imo the big concern with the US pulling out is in ordinance for weapons already in Ukrainian hands. Eventually they'll run out of MLRS rockets, sooner than that their patriot batteries will be for show only. I'm not sure if any of the NATO countries produce the 25mm for the bushmaster in Bradley's...I'd be flat out surprised if anyone outside the states manufactures the wire guided missiles they use....so yeah, stuff like that will be hard to come by. Spare parts for damaged US gear will dry up, etc. All probably within the next 6 months.
 
I'm going to call a weird event taking place soon that connects hockey and politics.

I bet trump uses ovechkin passing Gretzky as an opportunity to invite Putin to the white house and be in attendance to a Washington capitals game where either he scores the go ahead goal or its the first home game after...and it will be a disgusting event with trump, Putin and Gretzky in a box 🤮
Afterwards Putin will be in the Whitehouse and they will divide Ukraine up.
They could also agree to a peace settlement and then the US, (with tariffs on everyone) will completely lift all economic sanctions and release frozen assets to Russia....and then Putin will wait until trump goes for term 3 and then he'll attack Ukraine again
 
Hoss said:
I'm going to call a weird event taking place soon that connects hockey and politics.

I bet trump uses ovechkin passing Gretzky as an opportunity to invite Putin to the white house and be in attendance to a Washington capitals game where either he scores the go ahead goal or its the first home game after...and it will be a disgusting event with trump, Putin and Gretzky in a box 🤮
Afterwards Putin will be in the Whitehouse and they will divide Ukraine up.
They could also agree to a peace settlement and then the US, (with tariffs on everyone) will completely lift all economic sanctions and release frozen assets to Russia....and then Putin will wait until trump goes for term 3 and then he'll attack Ukraine again
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That is clever thinking. Two words never associated with Trump.
 
MindzEye said:
I don't think there's a big concern of Ukraine losing quickly here. Russia has spent almost a half of a year trying to take back their own territory in Kursk and failed. Their offensive in prokrovsk has sputtered badly and last reports I saw were that they got countered and gave back some ground. The previous projections of Russian force regenerating starting to hit a wall by mid 2025 are looking prescient at the moment as well. Perun's recent breakdown showed that the average age of Russian contract soldiers has increased huge since the start of the war, so while Russia on paper appears to have a similar force composition, it's actually being made up of progressively older and older men

The median ages of their KIA's are way up. Median age of mobilized troops KIA'd (mostly former military called back to service, but also officer recruits) is 33-35, that's a fairly small group though. Prison "recruit" median KIA ages are 36-38....but both of those groups together are dwarfed in size by the contract volunteers. Median KIA age of those is 42-44 years old with about 6500 KIA's being 50 and above. There have been reports out recently that over half of new recruits from the Moscow region are 45+. You can probably teach a bunch of 50 yr old soldiers to do a pretty nasty job of holding a trench line but doing all that fast moving meat wave Russian style attacking where you have to run across uneven ground under fire? Nah. There's not too many of us built like that after 40. Russian ability to commit to significant offensives is basically nil. Even getting about 11K North Koreans and throwing them all at re taking Kursk has gone very, very poorly.

imo the big concern with the US pulling out is in ordinance for weapons already in Ukrainian hands. Eventually they'll run out of MLRS rockets, sooner than that their patriot batteries will be for show only. I'm not sure if any of the NATO countries produce the 25mm for the bushmaster in Bradley's...I'd be flat out surprised if anyone outside the states manufactures the wire guided missiles they use....so yeah, stuff like that will be hard to come by. Spare parts for damaged US gear will dry up, etc. All probably within the next 6 months.
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Couldn't the EU buy those ammunitions for Ukraine if it comes to this?
 
Notice how the maga spin on wanting peace gives no agency to Putin? Appease him or we’ll have ww3 more or less answers who the aggressor is here.

Yet trump is showing strength by being an asshole to Zelenskyy in that idiotic spectacle diplomacy meeting.

He’s glad’s bitch. Unreal.
 
mbow30 said:
Notice how the maga spin on wanting peace gives no agency to Putin? Appease him or we’ll have ww3 more or less answers who the aggressor is here.

Yet trump is showing strength by being an asshole to Zelenskyy in that idiotic spectacle diplomacy meeting.

He’s glad’s bitch. Unreal.
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No one seems to have questioned Putin’s case for war. It’s all bullshit and demented. They can’t logically defend the publicly stated reasons which underpins yesterdays goat fuck. This is 100% to protect their own cack oligarchy - they have to export death and destruction to avoid confronting it at home.

Merkel thought he was paranoid and nuts years ago.
 
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