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The Official 2026 Off-Season Thread: Revenge of the Nerds

McKenna is coming into a great situation for 1st pick. He doesn’t have to be a saviour. He is unlikely to be the best player on the team. He gets to play with a goal scorer like Matthews, Willy or Tavares. May not even start on PP1.

If he went to Vancouver it’s an entirely different world.
 
axlsalinger said:
I don't know enough about the NCAA to opine too much, but my understanding is that they are relatively "new" to the group of top hockey programs, and their roster was also kind of weak compared to other places he could've gone to. So it was mildly controversial that McKenna went there, and he really did struggle in the early going.

Obviously he had a monster second half to alleviate most of those concerns though.
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Wheeler mentioned this too. He didn't go into it, but he felt Penn State was a shitty and difficult situation for him to go to. And that was a big part of why he struggled initially.
 
Preston said:
I would have pushed back on Wheeler saying he expects Gavin to struggle similarly to Jack Hughes in his rookie year. Could be the case, but Jack didn't have a year of college under his belt. I think Gavin progressed quite well throughout the year and scored at a pace that should make him a pretty good candidate to immediately do better than the 20 points that Jack had. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems pessimistic to me!
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Yeah, the jump from USHL to the NHL is immense even if it's USNDP. The top top American prospects of the past like Matthews, Eichel, and Kane all went to better leagues before jumping into the NHL. Basically, Hughes was a development year behind all of them that Kane used deep dicking the OHL and Matthews used being one of the best players in a legit professional mens league.
 
Preston said:
I would have pushed back on Wheeler saying he expects Gavin to struggle similarly to Jack Hughes in his rookie year. Could be the case, but Jack didn't have a year of college under his belt. I think Gavin progressed quite well throughout the year and scored at a pace that should make him a pretty good candidate to immediately do better than the 20 points that Jack had. Maybe I'm wrong but that seems pessimistic to me!
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In Hughes first season, the Devils’ also didn’t have a single player hit the 50 point mark, and only had two guys crack 20 goals. Kyle Palmieri led them in both goals & points with 25/45.

Think McKenna’s gonna have a wee bit more support here.
 
LeafGm said:
We saw this after the Matthews lotto too. Suddenly the magnifying glass came out for all his flaws, and high-minded “well maybe Laine is ackshually better, but the Leafs need a center so they should still take Matthews” think-pieces starting proliferating rapidly.
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Fucking Zeke.
 
LeafGm said:
In Hughes first season, the Devils’ also didn’t have a single player hit the 50 point mark, and only had two guys crack 20 goals. Kyle Palmieri led them in both goals & points with 25/45.

Think McKenna’s gonna have a wee bit more support here.
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Yeah in fairness to the idiot Wheeler, he did mention this. He said he'll be pretty well insulated and it's part of the reason he would without a doubt pick Gavin if he were the Leafs. But he does expect Stenberg to have a better rookie season. Thinks everyone else is basically 2 years away from being 2 years away from making an impact and that doesn't match the current Leafs window.
 
MindzEye said:
His vision and manipulation of pace is insane. Closest thing I've ever seen to kucherov in a prospect.
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Heard an interview today a scout saying that a kucherov type player is the ceiling… I’ll take it. If we get 80% of that I’ll take it
 
axlsalinger said:
I don't know enough about the NCAA to opine too much, but my understanding is that Penn State is relatively "new" to the group of top hockey programs, and their roster was also kind of weak compared to other places he could've gone to. So it was mildly controversial that McKenna went there, and he really did struggle in the early going.

Obviously he had a monster second half to alleviate most of those concerns though.
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All of that is correct. Traditionally, a prospect like McKenna would have gone to a Michigan, North Dakota, Wisconsin, etc.
 
Kritter said:
Heard an interview today a scout saying that a kucherov type player is the ceiling… I’ll take it. If we get 80% of that I’ll take it
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Stats and video scouting him, yeah that's my take too. The player type is Kane-Kucherov but with keeping in mind that this happened

Kane Draft Season (OHL): 2.5ppg
McKenna Draft -1 Season (WHL): 2.30ppg

So McKenna, as a 16 yr old and not on a powerhouse team (that London team had 2 additional 100 point scorers including CHL legend Sam Gagner), almost matched Kane's 17 yr old (he turned 18 early November) CHL production. So just on age adjusted performance alone, there's an argument that McKenna's ceiling is higher than the 3x cup champ, 1 time Conn Smythe, Hart, & Art Ross winner, 3 time all nhl 1st team 1400 point winger.
 
CH1 said:
Yesterday Brisebois said “now we have more sample size”
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www.tampabay.com

Lightningâs Darren Raddysh noncommittal as free agency looms

“The business side, I think, will take some time,” says the defenseman, who is coming off a career season.
www.tampabay.com www.tampabay.com

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He gone.

iu
 
Preston said:
Yeah in fairness to the idiot Wheeler, he did mention this. He said he'll be pretty well insulated and it's part of the reason he would without a doubt pick Gavin if he were the Leafs. But he does expect Stenberg to have a better rookie season. Thinks everyone else is basically 2 years away from being 2 years away from making an impact and that doesn't match the current Leafs window.
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If that’s the case, makes me wonder what would’ve happened if we’d stayed at 5. Trade the pick?
 
MindzEye said:
www.tampabay.com

Lightningâs Darren Raddysh noncommittal as free agency looms

“The business side, I think, will take some time,” says the defenseman, who is coming off a career season.
www.tampabay.com www.tampabay.com

View attachment 34108

View attachment 34109
He gone.

iu
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I mean…all you’ve gotta do if you’re a guy like him is look at players like Barrie & Klingberg who fumbled 8 year, $60M or so bags only to never see anything resembling that kind of money & security offered to them ever again.

He knows this summer is his opportunity to set himself for life.
 
LeafGm said:
I mean…all you’ve gotta do if you’re a guy like him is look at players like Barrie & Klingberg who fumbled 8 year, $60M or so bags only to never see anything resembling that kind of money & security offered to them ever again.

He knows this summer is his opportunity to set himself for life.
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Yeah, he's going to follow the money. I think AFP's projection is low on him, but I don't think the increase in the cap is going to blow free agency numbers way out of proportion or anything. We heard the same story last year and the salary lift was pretty incremental. I think we need to realize that most teams work on a % of the cap number they're signing him under basis and don't really entertain "the cap is going up X in the future, so we want a % of that" type conversations. They're not going to absorb that kind of risk that the cap does in fact go up that much in the future for anything but their absolute franchise type players.

I could see the high bid on him going over 6 x 4-5 years but we're not looking at someone blowing their brains out on him when Anderssen and Carlson are both on the market.
 
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