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2025-2026 Off Season Thread - The Rehappening

LeafOfFaith said:
I think it's 45% he stays, 55% he leaves.

And if he stays, either we have the same shit but worse next year if we lose again and then Tre gets dumped, or we break through and Tre is celebrated for his patience.

Only two possible outcomes.
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You should put money on this if you think 45%! You can get in at implied odds of 18%. Excellent value.
 
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leafman101 said:
We had 3 forwards making $11 mill for 6 of the last 7 years. Last year was the only year with 4.

3 didn’t work either.
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4 last year worked better than 3 in every other year (including the other time we advanced).

I don't think there's much of a point in evaluating things based on how many $10m+ guys we have.
 
There is so much working against them. It hasn’t worked at all. They’ve never been able to build a good enough team with the cap limitations. the core 4 have lost so much together that they can’t even function in big games.

I’m not too interested in trying it again for 3 years until Matthews walks. I don’t see the upside at all.v
 
There's no hard rule and yeah you can probably win with a whole variety of mixes. But it's a lot harder when two of your top three paid players on the team are wingers and they make as much as they do. Just a lot harder to influence the game in a significant way as a winger.
 
Preston said:
There's no hard rule and yeah you can probably win with a whole variety of mixes. But it's a lot harder when two of your top three paid players on the team are wingers and they make as much as they do. Just a lot harder to influence the game in a significant way as a winger.
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Marner plays like a c though.

There’s no reason they couldn’t do it with those three and the cap structure


…. If they didn’t all suck shit in games 6 and 7.
 
Preston said:
There's no hard rule and yeah you can probably win with a whole variety of mixes. But it's a lot harder when two of your top three paid players on the team are wingers and they make as much as they do. Just a lot harder to influence the game in a significant way as a winger.
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What if Cowan steps in and provides legit 2C/3C value at $900k?
 
mbow30 said:
Marner plays like a c though.

There’s no reason they couldn’t do it with those three and the cap structure


…. If they didn’t all suck shit in games 6 and 7.
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He does but the red flag for me is that, beyond just the scoring, he's never been able to carry his own line or drive possession like a top 5 paid player in the NHL should. Which isn't necessarily on him. I'm not aware of many wingers that are that guy. It has always been a bit of a reach for me to pay him like he does that stuff.
 
leafman101 said:
I’m not too interested in trying it again for 3 years until Matthews walks. I don’t see the upside at all.v
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not much choice. they don't have their own picks. can't tank now.

we have to face the fact that the Leafs need to start over again and probably did at least 3 years ago. at this point it's simply marking time until they can do so.

might be time to take a nice break from the team. we'll see, maybe Treliving will surprise me.
 
Preston said:
He does but the red flag for me is that, beyond just the scoring, he's never been able to carry his own line or drive possession like a top 5 paid player in the NHL should. Which isn't necessarily on him. I'm not aware of many wingers that are that guy. It has always been a bit of a reach for me to pay him like he does that stuff.
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Dude led all forwards in ice time, led the leafs in ice time, played d on the pp, was their top pk’er.

He’s fucking amazing.

But he plays like diarrhea in May.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Well, this really only mattered when we were under tighter constraints of a lower cap and had Tavares at $11m, neither of which is the case anymore.

Having a higher cap with a cheap Tavares makes it a lot easier to pay Marner, especially if he's going to take a contract similar to Willy's and not demand something similar to Matthews'.
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They arent moving on from Marner because he's expensive, they're moving in from Marner because he's garbage in games that matter. He could sign for a dollar a year and he'd still be a waste of money come playoff time.

His regular season points are a nice-to-have, but the Leafs can still make the playoffs without him. But they also can't win playoff games with him. It's not about money at this point. Marner just needs to go.
 
The fact that Kampf/Krok/Reaves represent $5.85m of freeable cap space, and that the cap is going up almost $20M over the next two years, there's a lot of opportunity here. Losing Marner for nothing just because "it hasn't worked (yet)" and getting lesser players to fill in the space is probably just going to drop an anchor on this thing.

If Tre walks from Marner, he needs to hit a fucking home run with the space this year. Or do nothing but stopgap and hope McDavid comes the next year.
 
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