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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

leafman101 said:
Ya, so “get a good goalie”.
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Yes people have misrepresented my opinion. They believe I don't want them to get a good goalie. I assure you, I do. I don't think Bobrovsky is a good example of this though. None of us would have wanted him last summer. Of course any goalie who wins a cup is gonna have a good playoff. Duh.
 
leafman101 said:
Aiden Hill is one of the few exceptions if you are actually using a data driven approach.

If you use a data driven approach Ullmark/Sarros + Woll >>>>>>> 2 Hills.

But I guess you would have to believe in using a data driven approach and not just “get two cheap goalies because goalies are magic”.
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It's like no one reads
 
If Matty scored 10 goals in a bad year and 70 goals in a good year, and there were 3 bad years and 2 good years over the contract term, would we be eager to sign him for $13M per?

That's basically what Bobrovsky is doing as a G. So why tie up so much cap in a guy who could give you Gregor production instead of Matty production in any given year? Isn't it better to give $6M to a guy who will score between 25-30 goals each year and find a better use for that extra $7M than to roll the dice on which player shows up which year for $13M? And with no guarantee that the 70 goal guy will actually show up at all.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
If Matty scored 10 goals in a bad year and 70 goals in a good year, and there were 3 bad years and 2 good years over the contract term, would we be eager to sign him for $13M per?

That's basically what Bobrovsky is doing as a G. So why tie up so much cap in a guy who could give you Gregor production instead of Matty production in any given year? Isn't it better to give $6M to a guy who will score between 25-30 goals each year and find a better use for that extra $7M than to roll the dice on which player shows up which year for $13M? And with no guarantee that the 70 goal guy will actually show up at all.
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Florida won and was able to have a 10m dollar goalie because of the Forsling's of the world. They were able to get enormous value out of their forwards and d because of an approach that few teams can mimic (and in fairness some luck goes into that too). They won in spite of his AAV, not because of it.
 
Preston said:
Florida won and was able to have a 10m dollar goalie because of the Forsling's of the world. They were able to get enormous value out of their forwards and d because of an approach that few teams can mimic (and in fairness some luck goes into that too). They won in spite of his AAV, not because of it.
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And they were forced into this approach because they went all in with a massive deal for Bob years ago.

With hands tied, they had to scrounge around to find value elsewhere and PRAY that stellar Bob showed up once or twice over the term.

They got lucky on both fronts.
 
I can’t wait to read about that guy that wants the Leafs to trade for Brobovsky this summer!

When that poster shows up, their argument won’t stand a chance against the Delta Kings, Preston and LOF!
 
Preston said:
If the argument is that the Leafs should find two goalies as good as Adin Hill, I agree. I think your odds significantly increase when you've got two capable goalies. Neither have to be expensive or sexy.
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I've been arguing that since the beginning. The difference is that I think it's worth taking some AAV risk for, paying reasonable acquisition cost for them, etc. You guys seem to insist that any risk at all makes it not worth risking 5-7 million dollars on the position, which is wild.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
And they were forced into this approach because they went all in with a massive deal for Bob years ago.

With hands tied, they had to scrounge around to find value elsewhere and PRAY that stellar Bob showed up once or twice over the term.

They got lucky on both fronts.
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And it happened at 35. So predictable!
 
thing is though, "Stellar Bob" has never really shown up. This is just good veteran Bob. Stellar Bob was the best goalie in the world. Good Veteran Bob is more of a top 5-10 guy.
 
It’s just funny seeing people argue that the Panthers are just lucky to get good goaltending from their career .915 goalie in 3 straight playoff runs.

Maybe they overpaid him, but they sure aren’t as upset about it as you are.
 
MindzEye said:
Never said that. You do insist on not investing in the position to maximize the possibility of getting a good goalie though.
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I prioritize investing more in positions where I know what I'm getting. That's all. I'm not against finding value in all positions. I just lean more towards a value approach for goaltending because that's what I believe the data supports in roster optimization.

Florida is an exception in that they found crazy value on d and some forwards as well. The Leafs can do that too, that's fine, it's just a bit harder.
 
Florida is not an exception though. Vegas is the only recent cup winner to not invest in the position and that was because the goalie they had already invested in fell apart physically so they had to make other plans on the fly. Florida, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAK all invested significant AAV in goaltending. They were able to chew gum and walk at the same time.

Every recent Cup winning front office has been willing to put significant investment in net. There is no magic front office out there winning cups without investing in net.
 
MindzEye said:
Florida is not an exception though. Vegas is the only recent cup winner to not invest in the position and that was because the goalie they had already invested in fell apart physically so they had to make other plans on the fly. Florida, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Washington, Pittsburgh, Chicago, LAK all invested significant AAV in goaltending. They were able to chew gum and walk at the same time.

Every recent Cup winning front office has been willing to put significant investment in net. There is no magic front office out there winning cups without investing in net.
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I'm not against paying Vas or current Shesty. Those two are freaks.

Colorado got Kuemper. That was a value add that I fully supported at the time, not a significant investment. That's what I want the leafs to do!
 
MindzEye said:
A 1st and a 3rd for 1 yr of pending UFA is Ullmark and Saros.
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Why are you so super horny for Ullmark and his career .887 in the playoffs over 10 games?

If we made that trade last year, gave Boston Cowan, and were bounced by Boston with Swayman wiping the floor with his old buddy Ullmark, would you be oh so thrilled with that trade and having another few years of 30 year old Ullmark at $5M? I don't get it. He might actually be a shitty goalie in the playoffs, so what are you staking this staunch belief of yours in, his regular season stats where the Leafs don't need him because they're already a top team?

And recall that Sammy had an .896 in posting his lofty 1-4 record this postseason. Better than Ullmark and only good enough to win 1 out of 5.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Why are you so super horny for Ullmark and his career .887 in the playoffs over 10 games?
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I'm not super horny for him. I'm pretty ambivalent between him and Saros tbh. Regarding his playoff performance, I don't over react to a few small samples strung together tbh.

LeafOfFaith said:
so what are you staking this staunch belief of yours in, his regular season stats where the Leafs don't need him because they're already a top team?
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The staunch belief is that over a representative sample, his regular season and playoff performances will be similar. Jonathon quick had a .898sv% in his first two trips to the playoffs. In his 3rd, a .946% stampede to win his first cup.

When all was said and done, he was the same guy in the playoffs that he was in the regular season.

Small samples can generate some weird results.
 
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