Preston
MBow30 alt account
But again there is a clear misrepresentation and perhaps a misunderstanding of how data and deltas work. I never once said you don't need good goaltending.
Around the League 2019-2024 Edition
- Thread starter LeafGm
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leafman101
Well-known member
People are wrong once again. The career .915 goalie with two vezinas came up huge again. It was a solid bet.
Don’t think Florida is complaining about the contract now.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
He was literally bandied about here as the worst contract in the league. Inconsistent, unreliable, and a terrible cap investment.
Now he's MVP.
leafman101
Well-known member
Yep. Just not the way you think it is.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Yeah… half of his goalie posts have me wondering who he’s responding to.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Which confirms another argument I've made.. Forumice goalie takes have aged horrendously for years. Not because we're dumb, but because it's the position with the least predictability. How the fuck are you supposed to know which goalie will perform the best in any 4-7 game sample? Impossible. The variance (and I'm talking quantifiable variances which were shared earlier in the thread) game to game and even year to year is drastically different than any other position. It just isn't even close. Hell, they don't even have sensical aging curves. It's hard and there's an element to typical statistical randomness that we don't always appreciate here.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
Three of the last five years he posted .906, .901, .900. For $10M per.
Just happened to be that this year he's shown up.
You're never going to get one of these guys to do this consistently. And it's not like each year the cup is won mainly because of a big name goalie with a track record. So to tie up significant assets and money in a guy who may or may not be amazing when the time comes isn't a good bet. The lesser guys that come cheaper win even more often than the big name big money guys.
Just happened to be that this year he's shown up.
You're never going to get one of these guys to do this consistently. And it's not like each year the cup is won mainly because of a big name goalie with a track record. So to tie up significant assets and money in a guy who may or may not be amazing when the time comes isn't a good bet. The lesser guys that come cheaper win even more often than the big name big money guys.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Forumice has suddenly become Presidents of the Bobrosvky Fanclub because he's about to win a cup. I love it. We all have egos I guess and like to pretend we know everything.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
That’s a decent reason to inspire a fan club
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I’ve yet to read the counter argument here that suggests the Leafs should find the most expensive goalie out there.
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Except nobody said that… at least in the posts I’ve read
Preston
MBow30 alt account
Of course they did. They say Bobrovsky is proof that you need a good goalie. Except we have spent years here talking about how shit he is. So is he a good goalie or is he having a random bounceback heater at 35 after being mediocre for Florida throughout his time there? Here are two examples but there are many more examples of this. I won't provide the worst offenses because I'm polite.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
So uhh, how has Bobrovsky been over the few years since I made those comments and would that data cause a rational human being to adjust a 2 year old take?
Preston
MBow30 alt account
1 year. He had a very good year this year. But you were correct to point out that prior to his 35 year old year, he was grossly disappointing for Florida. So where is the predictability that the 35 year old would suddenly have a great year? How are we supposed to know that this would happen? What is the lesson for the Leafs? What is there for them to "copy?"
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Sorry, no in and out priveleges at the Bobrovsky Fan Lounge. Once you leave… it’s adios forever
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Don't be afraid to pay a reasonable amount of AAV and/or player acquisition cost for a goalie that has a good performance track record over a reasonable multi year sample size in a similar role to what you envision him having here. Because what Bobrovsky proves is that even when you overpay and he underperforms, it stands a better chance of working out in the end than trawling the depths of the fucking ocean for your next goalie and hoping for the best.