Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

[LeafOfFaith]

You're acting like he has some hidden secret about himself and only he knows that he's an elite player. Yes he's taking a risk. But that doesn't have to mean he knows something that we don't. He could simply be making a poor decision. Quite frankly his track record as a prospect wouldn't even rank all that highly in the leafs ok just ok prospect pool.

I don't dispute this. I'm just edging on the glass is half full side of things here.

I like the overall story. If he was open to a minimum deal, I'd sign him and give him a shot. So he sucks here too, big deal, I drop him. If we're willing to wait through all of Robertson's injury and stunted development, why not give a guy like Zadina an opportunity.

 

[MindzEye]

Yep. Unless you get bought out, have your contract terminated or don’t get a qualifying offer, there are only two paths to UFA eligibility.

The most common is if your contract ends after you’ve accrued 7 NHL seasons and/or if you’re 27 or older on June 30th. At the conclusion of next season, he’ll be 24 years old and have five accrued seasons.

The other path is the one Bunting took. And that’s if you’re 25 or older with three professional seasons & fewer than 80 NHL games to your credit. He’s already at 190 GP & will be 24.

So he’ll be an RFA.

Then there's no way he wants a 1 yr minimum deal or even close. If his new signing team gets 3 yrs of control, he's not going to want a 1 yr deal for cheap, leaving a dirt cheap QO and no leverage next summer.

He wants the biggest bag he can get and his agent has told him that there's something out there that was an alternative to Detroit.

Or...he and his agent are the biggest dummies in the league and he just walked away from 4.6 million dollars because fuck grand rapids, even for 4.6 million dollars.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Then there's no way he wants a 1 yr minimum deal or even close. If his new signing team gets 3 yrs of control, he's not going to want a 1 yr deal for cheap, leaving a dirt cheap QO and no leverage next summer.

Where's his leverage to get more than the minimum term and dollars?

 

[Preston]

I don't dispute this. I'm just edging on the glass is half full side of things here.

I like the overall story. If he was open to a minimum deal, I'd sign him and give him a shot. So he sucks here too, big deal, I drop him. If we're willing to wait through all of Robertson's injury and stunted development, why not give a guy like Zadina an opportunity.

Robertson has been way more productive than him throughout at the same ages. I'd rather give him the shot because he at least some high end upside. Zadina hasn't shown any high end upside. Ever really.

But sure for league min, why not i guess. Probably a waste of time but no risk at least... He'd never sign in Toronto for that tho.

 

[MindzEye]

Where's his leverage to get more than the minimum term and dollars?

He's a UFA, if there is more than 1 team interested in him, they have to bid against each other to get him. The same as every other free agent.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Robertson has been way more productive than him throughout at the same ages. I'd rather give him the shot because he at least some high end upside. Zadina hasn't shown any high end upside. Ever really.

But sure for league mine, why not i guess. Probably a waste of time but no risk at least... He'd never sign in Toronto for that tho.

I didn't say we needed to choose between them. But we've got one defective, problematic prospect, so why not two?

I also don't expect him to sign with us. Just saying I would want him.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

He's a UFA, if there is more than 1 team interested in him, they have to bid against each other to get him. The same as every other free agent.

I think the distinguishing factor between any offers he gets will be the city/team/opportunity, and not the term/dollars.

 

[mbow30]

Pitts is currently over the cap with 12fwd, 7d, 3G, adds $9m while subtracting 5.8, putting them in a position where they would need to add another fwd.

This only works if sj takes petry.

 

[Preston]

I'd aim higher personally. Hard meh for me. I'm not sure what makes him all that different than several 23/24 year olds who can't make the NHL. Move past his draft slot. 2018 was a long time ago.

 

[mbow30]

Then there's no way he wants a 1 yr minimum deal or even close. If his new signing team gets 3 yrs of control, he's not going to want a 1 yr deal for cheap, leaving a dirt cheap QO and no leverage next summer.

He wants the biggest bag he can get and his agent has told him that there's something out there that was an alternative to Detroit.

Or...he and his agent are the biggest dummies in the league and he just walked away from 4.6 million dollars because fuck grand rapids, even for 4.6 million dollars.

Maybe he’s a bigot fvv believer

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I'd aim higher personally. Hard meh for me. I'm not sure what makes him all that different than several 23/24 year olds who can't make the NHL. Move past his draft slot. 2018 was a long time ago.

And you're probably right. This wouldn't be the odds-on favorite kind of move.

 

[MindzEye]

I think the distinguishing factor between any offers he gets will be the city/team/opportunity, and not the term/dollars.

I'm not sure why you think those would be in opposition to each other. If Chicago offered him 2.5x3 or similar, the intent would obviously be to give him opportunity. A team less willing to offer money is probably offering a bunch less opportunity along with it.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

I'm not sure why you think those would be in opposition to each other. If Chicago offered him 2.5x3 or similar, the intent would obviously be to give him opportunity. A team less willing to offer money is probably offering a bunch less opportunity along with it.

I'm not sure what we're talking about here. Nobody is offering him a raise. He's currently a busted prospect in all likelihood.

His hope has to be to get some minimum deal from someone who will give him a chance to excel, and he'll just choose between the interested teams for the best shot to succeed. That's my read on this thing.

 

[MindzEye]

I'm not sure what we're talking about here. Nobody is offering him a raise. He's currently a busted prospect in all likelihood.

His hope has to be to get some minimum deal from someone who will give him a chance to excel, and he'll just choose between the interested teams for the best shot to succeed. That's my read on this thing.

Then you're going with "he and his agent are two of the dumbest people in the industry" side of the argument then. Because no one walks from a guaranteed 4.6 million dollars over the next 2 years without having a good idea that a similar bag is out there for a 23 yr old UFA. His agent should be fired from a cannon and into the fucking sun if that was his advice to a 23 yr old kid with fuck all in career earnings and a guaranteed multi million dollar contract, if he didn't know with relative certainty that a number of teams had similar (or bigger) bags to offer with better opportunity.

That type of flat out malpractice from an agent is pretty rare, so I'm on the other side of this. That his agent isn't actual a tool of epic proportions and the kid is going to land softly somewhere for decent money. It's pretty rare for a 23 yr old former 6th overall pick to hit the market.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Then you're going with "he and his agent are two of the dumbest people in the industry" side of the argument then. Because no one walks from a guaranteed 4.6 million dollars over the next 2 years without having a good idea that a similar bag is out there for a 23 yr old UFA. His agent should be fired from a cannon and into the fucking sun if that was his advice to a 23 yr old kid with fuck all in career earnings and a guaranteed multi million dollar contract, if he didn't know with relative certainty that a number of teams had similar (or bigger) bags to offer with better opportunity.

I'm going with the "he, whether on his own, or with his agents' support, said fuck the money, I think I can be a player in this league, but need a change of scenery, and no other team will touch me with this contract" theory.

 

[Preston]

Ya idk who's right in that debate. I just know he sucks

 

[MindzEye]

I'm going with the "he, whether on his own, or with his agents' support, said fuck the money, I think I can be a player in this league, but need a change of scenery, and no other team will touch me with this contract" theory.

So something that is literally unprecedented

 

[LeafOfFaith]

So something that is literally unprecedented

What he did kinda is already. The only thing up for debate is with what intention.

Keep in mind, he's already made over $5M in his NHL career, so it's not like he's begging on the side of the road.

And he knows that he'll make another minimum $800k or whatever on a one year deal, and have the chance to probably make that again in the NHL for a bit, or make the same or more in Russia. He won't be in financial distress, so he's foregoing the guarantee for a chance to showed some untapped potential at this level.

 

[MindzEye]

Keep in mind, he's already made over $5M in his NHL career

Nope and not even that close.

Tough to figure exactly how much with his up and down to the AHL (where he was 70K a year on his ELC) and then how covid fucked shit up (both in condensed seasons and player's losing 15-17% in escrow and not getting it back) but a decent estimate for real career earnings at this point (before taxes and agent but after escrow he likely didn't get back much of) for him is about 2.5 million so far.

so it's not like he's begging on the side of the road.

2.5 million before taxes over 5 years is fine and all, but given how young athletes spend their money, it's just not likely that he was in a financial position to simply say fuck the 4.6 million in guaranteed money I have coming over the next 2 seasons, I'm going to take the minimum next year because I want minutes.

Again, if your side of this was his agent's suggestion or if his agent didn't flat out threaten to fire his client for doing this, they're two of the dumbest people in the industry.

Sure, he can go to Russia (average salary of 425K) and it would take 11 years for him to earn as much as Detroit was contractually obligated to pay him over the next 2. 5 years at league min in the NHL does the same thing if he doesn't wash out as a NHL'er before then.

 

[LeafOfFaith]

Nope and not even that close.

Tough to figure exactly how much with his up and down to the AHL (where he was 70K a year on his ELC) and then how covid fucked shit up (both in condensed seasons and player's losing 15-17% in escrow and not getting it back) but a decent estimate for real career earnings at this point (before taxes and agent but after escrow he likely didn't get back much of) for him is about 2.5 million so far.



2.5 million before taxes over 5 years is fine and all, but given how young athletes spend their money, it's just not likely that he was in a financial position to simply say fuck the 4.6 million in guaranteed money I have coming over the next 2 seasons, I'm going to take the minimum next year because I want minutes.

Again, if your side of this was his agent's suggestion or if his agent didn't flat out threaten to fire his client for doing this, they're two of the dumbest people in the industry.

Fair enough, but the fact remains he shouldn't be broke, and his willingness to walk away from $4M would tend to confirm that.

As for the advisability of doing something like this, take it from me, clients don't always listen to their reps, and often make overconfident moves based on a seemingly irrational self-valuation. They often tend to be wrong to do it, but I've seen many cases like this Zadina move outside of hockey, which is partially why I feel I recognize the underlying motivations in it.