Around the League 2019-2024 Edition
- Thread starter LeafGm
- Start date
axlsalinger
Well-known member
leafman101
Well-known member
If Demidov falls to 5 there are a 3 really dumb teams in the NHL. Habs better not pass on that again.
zeke
Well-known member
leafman101
Well-known member
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
Fair
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Yup, this.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
That's the issue though. There is a spread between real world value and perceived value. Kings took advantage of that spread. The perceived (trade) value is mathematically wrong and will lose over enough iterations short of supreme levels of drafting skill (which there really is no evidence of that existing in any NHL front office other than maybe Dallas) counterbalancing the increased in draft value of the multiple picks.
The fact that the trade value is pretty close doesn't say it all, it's the core problem. You have this inside out mate.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Askarov has 2 years of AHL play and he's been .911 in both. Good prospect but he's not really lighting the world on fire since coming over either.
In another episode of "I'm not saying, I'm just saying"
19:
Askarov: .899 (VHL) .913 (KHL)
Hildeby: .911 (J20)
20:
Askarov: .911 (AHL)
Hildeby: .931 (SHL) - .931 (J20)
21:
Askarov: .911 (AHL)
Hildeby: .918 (SHL)
22:
Askarov: NA
Hildeby: .913 (AHL)
I don't think Askarov has done a lot to convince the organization that he's a super prospect and worth walking away from their top 5 goalie over.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Nope. You're being ridiculous on this issue with this idea that it's always dumb to trade up for a higher pick. Draft pick trade "value" is hypothetical, anyway... There's no way to know the "exact" value of any draft pick. So people have come up with a numerical way of trying to figure out the relative value of all picks. I think the value here is pretty close.
I would generally prefer the higher pick, which provides better odds at getting the more impact player. If your philosophy is to always trade down, so be it. There's nothing wrong with it. I just don't agree with the idea that it's dumb to trade up.
Of course teams can hit on a great player with any pick, so the more the merrier. Trading down gives you more picks, but odds are you wind up with a larger pool of middling players.
leafman101
Well-known member
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I mean, that's great but the work that's been done on this thing that the Kings package isn't "pretty close". That's my overall point. The gap between returned historic value of those draft slots and the perceived trade value of the draft slots is pretty huge and I've gone way out of my motherfucking way to explain that yes it is probablistic and yes outstanding analysis (and/or good ol Presto luck) can beat the numbers and even admitted our own Konecny/Dermott example as a cautionary tale on the approach.
I've been even handed while providing the information relevant to the issue at it's core. Fuck off with this shit.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
The hype around him was that he'd be an NHL starter within a year or so of being drafted because of his experience and pedigree. At least that's what was used here as reasons why the leafs should pick him in the top 10-15 if they got the chance (cheap ELC starting goalie almost immediately!). Could still be a lovely goalie but the development curve has looked different than many assumed.
leafman101
Well-known member
Speaking of goalies and the draft. Illya Nabokov is 21 and was one of the top goalies in the KHL this year. If the Leafs have a chance in the mid rounds they should grab him.
LeafOfFaith
Well-known member
I'd give up something reasonable to get him and throw him and Woll in there for cheappppppp this year.
Habsy
Not playing around anymore.
Lately goalies aren't figuring it out until 25-26
axlsalinger
Well-known member
Not looking to spend the whole day arguing about this issue, especially with you clearly being so unreasonable here, but aren't the people doing "the work" on historical draft pick results the same people who did "the work" in determining appropriate draft pick value? Why doesn't every stats nerd scream from the rooftops to always trade down? Because it's statistically better (not to mention obvious) to have a higher pick than a lower pick,and these things even out,
If every pick has an approximate value, than we can view a trade of multiple picks and determine an approximate value for both sides. You can prefer to trade down and I can prefer to trade up, and we may even switch positions depending who's on the board, but the approximate pick values remain the same.
Even if teams are better off historically with more low picks than an equal relative value of higher picks, it still shouldn't be a determining factor if a particular team prefers a particular player at a higher pick in a particular draft, as you acknowledged earlier.
Unless you are saying your nerds are better at mathing than my nerds, in which case I challenge you to a nerd-off, good sir.
