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Around the League 2019-2024 Edition

Kinda feels like you’re splitting hairs on this one ya nerds.

Like oh ya kucherov didn’t have nearly as good of a year last year as we thought - he only had 132 points.

Plus look at that list. Those guys would all be big time scorers with only 6 en pts vs 10 (or whatever).
 
10% of a player's total points isn't splitting hairs obviously.

points are a bad stat. we have much better ones. anything that chips away at their dominance is a good thing.

Kuch not winning mvp last year is good.
 
zeke said:
10% of a player's total points isn't splitting hairs obviously.

points are a bad stat. we have much better ones. anything that chips away at their dominance is a good thing.

Kuch not winning mvp last year is good.
Click to expand...
Excuse me? Points are a bad stat? Next thing you'll be telling us that playoff wins don't matter either.

Take 10% off of Kucherov's total points last season. He still winds up with about 118 points. That's what stats people call "really good"
 
If you want to pick fly turds out of a pepper mill, don't stop at empty netters or 3-on-3 goals. Parse out all the goals that were "unnecessary", like when a guy scores to turn a 6-1 game i to a 6-2 game or when they score to make a 5-3 game into a 6-3 game. Only count the goals they get when they open the scoring, tie the score, or break a tie, but only at full strength or shorthanded and never in OT.

But once you start doing that, you're as good as admitting that the concept of "clutch" is a real thing, and I know most fancy stat geeks hate to give credence to anything related to a player being "clutch"
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Excuse me? Points are a bad stat?
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correct. nhl randomly decides to use points, while nba randomly decides to use points per game and assists per game, while baseball randomly decides to use percentages. NHL used to also randomly use only goals and first assists as the "real" stat, and then randomly decided to add in second assists to0, but not third assists, because reasons.

If nhl randomly decided to use only goals and first assists per game way back when, you would think that was the only stat that mattered.


WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
If you want to pick fly turds out of a pepper mill, don't stop at empty netters or 3-on-3 goals.
Click to expand...

we don't.

modern stats factor all game situations separately and weighted differently, and in fact all the modern stats do exactly what you just asked - they adjust for score, giving much more weight to performance in close games than in blowouts.

they do everything you want them to do, but because the nhl randomly decided to use total points as their measure 100 years ago, you'll pretend that it;s the only "real" stat that tells us how good players are.
 
hopefully it doesn't mean 4th liners like Zamuner, but they should definitely ignore PP production for anyone not projected to actually be part of Canada's PP units.

prior to the season, a model like Dom's would have had Team Canada looking something like this (note: the most misleading part here is that these projections include top PP time for most every guy here, which would have to be removed from all but the actual top unit guys to be accurate. This is especially bad for dmen here as PP time is such a massive part of some of their values. But for now it's what i have. I'm going to try and update these numbers manually with this season's stats but fuck me it's a lot of work so i dunno if i'll be able to).


Something like this ignoring this season's performance entirely for now:


Hyman 17 - McDavid 33 - Marner 19
Reinhart 18 - MacKinnon 28 - Jarvis 13
Hagel 12 - Crosby 15 - Point 14
Thomas 12 - Johnston 12 - Thompson 11
(Verhaeghe 11 - Tavares 11 - Barzal 11)

Morriseey 15 - Makar 17
Dobson 13 - Bouchard 17
Theodore 9 - Doughty 11
(Harley 9 - Spurgeon 9)

​
but again, you'd want to strip the pp value from everyone here but the guys who you project to be on the PP. This would especially ding any dmen that weren't projected to be on Canada's PP. There's probably a number other defensive dmen with better even strength and pk value than some guys here.




​
 
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JackBurton said:
Yeah let's bring back 98' and 06'!

View: https://x.com/FAN590/status/1861903578941780307
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It's weird that we've had such good success taking skilled players and giving them checking roles at international tournaments but we keep wanting to do the gritty grinder thing right up until we're calling hockey summits to figure out why we stopped winning. Then go back to a skill focus after the soul searching, win and rinse repeat the cycle.
 
Canada based on 2yr PPG:

Reinhart 1.20 --- McDavid 1.68 --- Marner 1.26
Thomas 1.02 --- MacKinnon 1.68 --- Point 1.10
Hagel 0.99 --- Crosby 1.10 --- Stone 1.07
Konecny 0.96 --- Scheifele 1.02 --- Barzal 0.94
(Suzuki 0.93 --- Strome 0.93 --- Stamkos 0.91)

Theodore 0.87 --- Makar 1.21
Morrissey 0.86 --- Bouchard 0.94
Dunn 0.78 --- Hamilton 0.75
(Rielly 0.76 --- Matheson 0.74)

​
 
Total Points (2yr):
Th
Reinhart 125 --- MacKinnon 175 --- Marner 113
Hagel 101 --- McDavid 160 --- Point 107
Suzuki 96 --- Crosby 115 --- Scheifele 98
Strome 96 --- Thomas 95 --- Konecyny 94
(Batherson 88 --- Duchene 90 --- Stamkos 92)

Morrissey 89 --- Makar 120
Matheson 75 --- Bouchard 97
Rielly 71 --- Dobson 79
(Theodore 59 --- Weegar 64)​
 
Its funny because if you look at just the highest scoring Canadians over the last two years Marner, Hagel, Suzuki, Konecny are all in the top 12 in scoring and they are good defensive, PKers. Batherson and Hyman are just on the outside.

They should take Tanev though.
 
I might go something like this.

Hyman - McDavid - MacKinnon
Reinhart - Crosby - Marner
Hagel - Point - Stone
Thomas - Johnston - Jarvis


​
though Hyman is so bad right now and so obviously a complementary player i don't know that he can make it now. don't even think he PKs much anymore. Especially when i'm leaving off guys like Thompson and Verhaeghe here.
 
i tried to quickly update canada forward net ratings but i'm probably missing a bunch of guys who might be having good enough years to have pushed themselves into the bottom lines here:

Hyman 14 - McDavid 32 --- Reinhart 21
Crosby 12 - MacKinnon 26 --- Marner 20
Hagel 15 - Point 14 - Stone 11
Thomas 12 - Tavares 13 - Jarvis 14
(Verhaeghe 10 - Strome 11 - Johnston 10)

or if we tried to "stack" them

Reinhart 21 - McDavid 32 - MacKinnon 26
Hagel 15 - Point 14 - Marner 20
Hyman 14 - Tavares 13 - Jarvis 14
Thomas 12 - Crosby 12 - Stone 11

​

let me know if there's any other names having a great year that i should try to update.
 
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