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Around The League - 2024-25 Regular Season

GGpX said:
Here's my point with using the 32nd pick on Beck. It has nothing to do with Beck & more to do with probabilities. Larsypoo just so happens to be my favorite example because he's an easy player to point out.

Every single year, players like Eller are available. Whether via trade or via free agency. They are not hard to find and they don't have astronomical value.

Summer 2016 (27 years old): Traded for two 2nd round picks.
Spring 2023 (33 years old): Traded for one 2nd round pick. (Pending UFA)
Fall 2024 (34 years old): Traded for one 3rd round pick & one 5th round pick (Pending UFA)

Larsypoo has been a consistent and useful third line center with a 30-40 point production year over year for a decade.

Using an early second round pick on players like Owen Beck, who have no real upside and are projected as depth forwards, who is considered a "safe" pick, is illogical to me.

If I really, really wanted an Owen Beck type of player, I'll trade for Larsypoo.

Here's Beck's timeline, in the absolute best of scenarios: Two years in Junior, at least one year in the AHL, maybe two. Establishes himself as an NHLer in his second or third season of pro hockey before having a good career as a third line center. Again, absolute best of scenarios.

So in the best of scenarios, Beck takes four years or so to establish himself as an NHLer.

But what if this isn't the best of scenarios and a player like Beck stagnates? It's not like he's a number producer in the OHL and has to settle into being a checker in the NHL, he's got only one possible path to make it to the NHL. Like all draft picks, it's a crap shoot, there's no guarantee any of them make it.

So what it boils down to is: Do you take the risk that a player like Beck will become a third line (or fourth, TBD) player 4-5 years after you take him, or do you give two second round picks like Washington did and get nearly seven full seasons of a player like Lars Eller who was a consistent and useful third line center.

This shouldn't be a difficult decision at all. The probabilities are overwhelmingly in one direction as opposed to the other.
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Who taken after him, aside from Hutson, would have been a better gamble? Personally I think you're indicting Beck very early. He's a smart player and I see no reason he can't put up .75 ppg with decent likemates a few years into the league.
 
Habsy said:
Who taken after him, aside from Hutson, would have been a better gamble? Personally I think you're indicting Beck very early. He's a smart player and I see no reason he can't put up .75 ppg with decent likemates a few years into the league.
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He already named them. Though I'd add Casey to the list.

The point basically was to draft for ceiling because bottom 6 players you can obtain easily through free agency, trade, or your high ceiling guys "busting" to bottom 6.

While the top 6 guys are extremely difficult to obtain outside of drafting. When you do get those types you are usually trading high value prospects and picks.


I'm not quite as hardcore about it as GGpX but especially for a rebuilding team you gotta aim high imo.

If you have your superstars you can be a little more cautious and be fine with having good bottom 6 on the cheap through ELC.
 
Again, this has nothing to do with Beck directly; It's about probabilities and, to extent, drafting philosophy.

The Tampa Bay Lightning didn't become a dynasty by getting Radko Gudas or Ross Colton with their middle round picks. They swung for high upside players and they hit. More often than not, they missed, but when they hit?

Nobody's calling Beck a shitty prospect. I believe his upside is low - and so did everyone who scouted him prior to the draft - and I don't think a player like that deserves to be taken with a second round pick.

If you can find the 2022 draft thread, I believe the player I wanted was Noah Warren. Noah Warren looks like a miss and I don't think he'll make it as an everyday NHLer, short of a drastic turn around. But prior to the draft, Warren had a lot of tools. Size, maybe some offensive, a bit of a prick to play against, really good skater considering his size. One of those players that has a lot to offer... if it works out. If being the operative word.

As mentioned earlier, in the best of scenarios, Owen Beck makes the NHL four full years after he's drafted and makes a career as a two-way bottom 6 center. You spent an early 2nd round pick for that. The probabilities that he lives up to that are low, but not impossibly low. You can do that, and if he hits, you have your third line center for 8 years or so, maybe more. Or, you can pay a little more via trade (see the Lars Eller example) for an established player or get one via free agency (Brett Howden's going to be available in July) for a smaller part of their careers, but you know for certain what you're getting.

Personal drafting philosophy is to go swinging for the fences, aim for something big and go down swinging. Who knows, you might get a player that was seen as a top-6 forward who makes a niche for himself as a depth forward in the league. Happens.

Also, unrelated, but was anyone here actually more excited for Beck than Hutson? Or Roy? Or Mailloux? Or Reinbacher? Or Demidov? Or Hage? Or Fowler? Of course not. Beck's a fine prospect that we should be happy to have, but nobody was actually impatiently waiting for him to go pro. Everyone else I listed were players we have been (or still are) impatiently waiting to see in Laval or Montréal.
 
worm said:
He already named them. Though I'd add Casey to the list.

The point basically was to draft for ceiling because bottom 6 players you can obtain easily through free agency, trade, or your high ceiling guys "busting" to bottom 6.

While the top 6 guys are extremely difficult to obtain outside of drafting. When you do get those types you are usually trading high value prospects and picks.


I'm not quite as hardcore about it as GGpX but especially for a rebuilding team you gotta aim high imo.

If you have your superstars you can be a little more cautious and be fine with having good bottom 6 on the cheap through ELC.
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I actually disagree.

If I'm running a team like Tampa Bay, who you can count their decent draft picks on a single hand over the last decade, I would trade my first & second round picks virtually every year for established players. Not players on ridiculous contracts, but the Brendan Hagel types. Players that have cost certainty and I know are good right away.

And if possible, trades à la Sergachev (both times).
 
GGpX said:
Again, this has nothing to do with Beck directly; It's about probabilities and, to extent, drafting philosophy.

The Tampa Bay Lightning didn't become a dynasty by getting Radko Gudas or Ross Colton with their middle round picks. They swung for high upside players and they hit. More often than not, they missed, but when they hit?

Nobody's calling Beck a shitty prospect. I believe his upside is low - and so did everyone who scouted him prior to the draft - and I don't think a player like that deserves to be taken with a second round pick.

If you can find the 2022 draft thread, I believe the player I wanted was Noah Warren. Noah Warren looks like a miss and I don't think he'll make it as an everyday NHLer, short of a drastic turn around. But prior to the draft, Warren had a lot of tools. Size, maybe some offensive, a bit of a prick to play against, really good skater considering his size. One of those players that has a lot to offer... if it works out. If being the operative word.

As mentioned earlier, in the best of scenarios, Owen Beck makes the NHL four full years after he's drafted and makes a career as a two-way bottom 6 center. You spent an early 2nd round pick for that. The probabilities that he lives up to that are low, but not impossibly low. You can do that, and if he hits, you have your third line center for 8 years or so, maybe more. Or, you can pay a little more via trade (see the Lars Eller example) for an established player or get one via free agency (Brett Howden's going to be available in July) for a smaller part of their careers, but you know for certain what you're getting.

Personal drafting philosophy is to go swinging for the fences, aim for something big and go down swinging. Who knows, you might get a player that was seen as a top-6 forward who makes a niche for himself as a depth forward in the league. Happens.

Also, unrelated, but was anyone here actually more excited for Beck than Hutson? Or Roy? Or Mailloux? Or Reinbacher? Or Demidov? Or Hage? Or Fowler? Of course not. Beck's a fine prospect that we should be happy to have, but nobody was actually impatiently waiting for him to go pro. Everyone else I listed were players we have been (or still are) impatiently waiting to see in Laval or Montréal.
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Your philosophy is boom or bust which is a low percentage probability. Teams draft for NHL level talent, not just elite talent.
 
GGpX said:
Also, unrelated, but was anyone here actually more excited for Beck than Hutson? Or Roy? Or Mailloux? Or Reinbacher? Or Demidov? Or Hage? Or Fowler? Of course not. Beck's a fine prospect that we should be happy to have, but nobody was actually impatiently waiting for him to go pro. Everyone else I listed were players we have been (or still are) impatiently waiting to see in Laval or Montréal.
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I'm excited for Beck actually. I'm not gaga over anyone, not even Demidov, but that's just because I don't get gaga over anything really.

I see a lot of ROR in Beck. Will he reach that potential? Who knows, but the similarities are there.
 
I’m just not a black and white. I think there is a balance to be had in the draft and you need all kind of players to make a team. There was, and still is, room for a player like Beck in our pipeline. If we look back at that draft, we essentially took 3 swings and one safe pick with our first 4 picks. That’s a decent balance.
 
GGpX said:
I actually disagree.

If I'm running a team like Tampa Bay, who you can count their decent draft picks on a single hand over the last decade, I would trade my first & second round picks virtually every year for established players. Not players on ridiculous contracts, but the Brendan Hagel types. Players that have cost certainty and I know are good right away.

And if possible, trades à la Sergachev (both times).
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That isn't disagreeing though.

I was talking drafting specifically . No issue trading draft picks during the window.
 
GrandWazoo said:
I’m just not a black and white. I think there is a balance to be had in the draft and you need all kind of players to make a team. There was, and still is, room for a player like Beck in our pipeline. If we look back at that draft, we essentially took 3 swings and one safe pick with our first 4 picks. That’s a decent balance.
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I'd argue DR was a safe pick. Should have drafted for upside.
 
GGpX said:
......

If you can find the 2022 draft thread, I believe the player I wanted was Noah Warren. Noah Warren looks like a miss and I don't think he'll make it as an everyday NHLer, short of a drastic turn around. But prior to the draft, Warren had a lot of tools. Size, maybe some offensive, a bit of a prick to play against, really good skater considering his size. One of those players that has a lot to offer... if it works out. If being the operative word......
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Funny you should mention Luneau and Warren in the same thread, and that you liked Warren . I went to a game where both were playing for the same team (Sherbrooke?) in their draft year. I believe Luneau was ranked a little higher on the list(s) I saw. But I was more impressed with Warren. (only one game, of course).
 
east coast said:
Funny you should mention Luneau and Warren in the same thread, and that you liked Warren . I went to a game where both were playing for the same team (Sherbrooke?) in their draft year. I believe Luneau was ranked a little higher on the list(s) I saw. But I was more impressed with Warren. (only one game, of course).
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Varied from list to list, but both were seen as early to mid second round picks.

Pre-draft, Warren was seen as the risky, high upside player, Luneau the safer, but lower upside player. Luneau is already establishing himself in the league, while it's not looking good for Warren. Funny enough, Anaheim took Warren before Luneau in that draft.

Random thought, since we're talking about those two... While it doesn't happen that often, excluding the American NDTP... has there ever been a time when two players from the same team, who are both rated in the same proximity of the same, end up both being good in the NHL? I ask because I remember thinking a while back, how did we end up selecting both Maxim Lapierre & Cory Urquhart 21 picks apart when the Montreal Rocket weren't a great team? It's not like McDavid & Strome on the Erie Otters when they were one of the best teams in the CHL and they were taken 1st & 3rd in the draft. There was the 2008 draft with Brayden Schenn and Scott Glennie in the Brendan Wheat Kings. Taylor Hall, Greg Nemisz and Adam Henrique on the Windsor Spitfires.

When Anaheim took both early in the second, I knew someone messed up.
 
GrandWazoo said:
I’m just not a black and white. I think there is a balance to be had in the draft and you need all kind of players to make a team. There was, and still is, room for a player like Beck in our pipeline. If we look back at that draft, we essentially took 3 swings and one safe pick with our first 4 picks. That’s a decent balance.
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That mix is important for team building. Need players like Beck. I understand players of that ilk can be acquired by different means, but I don’t see the harm of using 2nd round pick if the other picks are riskier.
 
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GGpX said:
Varied from list to list, but both were seen as early to mid second round picks.

Pre-draft, Warren was seen as the risky, high upside player, Luneau the safer, but lower upside player. Luneau is already establishing himself in the league, while it's not looking good for Warren. Funny enough, Anaheim took Warren before Luneau in that draft.

Random thought, since we're talking about those two... While it doesn't happen that often, excluding the American NDTP... has there ever been a time when two players from the same team, who are both rated in the same proximity of the same, end up both being good in the NHL? I ask because I remember thinking a while back, how did we end up selecting both Maxim Lapierre & Cory Urquhart 21 picks apart when the Montreal Rocket weren't a great team? It's not like McDavid & Strome on the Erie Otters when they were one of the best teams in the CHL and they were taken 1st & 3rd in the draft. There was the 2008 draft with Brayden Schenn and Scott Glennie in the Brendan Wheat Kings. Taylor Hall, Greg Nemisz and Adam Henrique on the Windsor Spitfires.

When Anaheim took both early in the second, I knew someone messed up.
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That was the year when apparently the scouts had no gas budget and didn't leave the city. We also took Jimmy Bonneau from that team that year.
 
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