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Around The League - 2024-25 Regular Season

GGpX said:
Shoutout to Larsypoo.

(Also the perfect example why you don't take low upside players like Owen Beck with premium picks.)
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Beck was a 2nd rounder (and our 3rd pick) so I wouldn't call that a premium pick. Then they made the ultimate home run swing for Hutson later in the round. I would be pissed though, if we missed out on Hutson because of the Beck pick.
 
Hoiles said:
Beck was a 2nd rounder (and our 3rd pick) so I wouldn't call that a premium pick. Then they made the ultimate home run swing for Hutson later in the round. I would be pissed though, if we missed out on Hutson because of the Beck pick.
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Choose one or the other.

You can't in one breath say it's not a premium pick, then the next say we used a pick right after on a homerun swing.

There are top-6 forwards & top-4 d-men who are selected every single year with second round picks. Is the hit rate low, yes, but there are players available each year.
 
GGpX said:
Choose one or the other.

You can't in one breath say it's not a premium pick, then the next say we used a pick right after on a homerun swing.

There are top-6 forwards & top-4 d-men who are selected every single year with second round picks. Is the hit rate low, yes, but there are players available each year.
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I am glad we got both , looks like a solid 2022 draft overall
 
Here's my point with using the 32nd pick on Beck. It has nothing to do with Beck & more to do with probabilities. Larsypoo just so happens to be my favorite example because he's an easy player to point out.

Every single year, players like Eller are available. Whether via trade or via free agency. They are not hard to find and they don't have astronomical value.

Summer 2016 (27 years old): Traded for two 2nd round picks.
Spring 2023 (33 years old): Traded for one 2nd round pick. (Pending UFA)
Fall 2024 (34 years old): Traded for one 3rd round pick & one 5th round pick (Pending UFA)

Larsypoo has been a consistent and useful third line center with a 30-40 point production year over year for a decade.

Using an early second round pick on players like Owen Beck, who have no real upside and are projected as depth forwards, who is considered a "safe" pick, is illogical to me.

If I really, really wanted an Owen Beck type of player, I'll trade for Larsypoo.

Here's Beck's timeline, in the absolute best of scenarios: Two years in Junior, at least one year in the AHL, maybe two. Establishes himself as an NHLer in his second or third season of pro hockey before having a good career as a third line center. Again, absolute best of scenarios.

So in the best of scenarios, Beck takes four years or so to establish himself as an NHLer.

But what if this isn't the best of scenarios and a player like Beck stagnates? It's not like he's a number producer in the OHL and has to settle into being a checker in the NHL, he's got only one possible path to make it to the NHL. Like all draft picks, it's a crap shoot, there's no guarantee any of them make it.

So what it boils down to is: Do you take the risk that a player like Beck will become a third line (or fourth, TBD) player 4-5 years after you take him, or do you give two second round picks like Washington did and get nearly seven full seasons of a player like Lars Eller who was a consistent and useful third line center.

This shouldn't be a difficult decision at all. The probabilities are overwhelmingly in one direction as opposed to the other.
 
GGpX said:
Be honest: Would you rather have Beck or any of the following players: Tristan Luneau, David Goyette, Matthew Poitras, Jagger Firkus?
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Goyette and Firkus are your junior scoring pops who are either top 6 or wont amount too much in the NHL , not sold on them at all

Plenty of these types who fizzle out at the next level , plus both are small finesse types

Poitras is a third liner but I like him on my team

Dont see a home run with Luneau at all , good top 4 in time

I see your point but if Beck is that 2 way solid third liner that is important to a team defensively I am ok with it

Those are not the home run types IMO
 
All of those players, if they work out, could become top-6 forwards or top-4 d-men. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but if they don't, I get the feeling they could maybe figure out a way to carve a career in the league as depth pieces.

There is no world in which Owen Beck becomes a top-6 forward unless he plays for this year's edition of the San Jose Sharks. The upside is low and I have no appetite for players like that. The same reason I would have no appetite for drafting a big d-man with no offensive talent whatsoever, like what New York did with Emery or Toronto did what Danford a few months ago. I don't care if they make the NHL or not, I can find those prototypes in free agency or trade every single year.
 
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I get the math, yet for all players, it's a matter of ceiling x probability to reach the ceiling. A potential 3rd line center with high probability (and at worse a 4th line center) vs a potential 2nd line winger with a low probability (and otherwise bust) is a discussion to have. You hit on Beck with your 2nd round pick, then you don't have to spend your 2nds to acquire that player for 10+ years and then you might be more inclined to take swings or use those picks to acquire other players.
 
Yeah, why not have a balance in the risk/reward of a set of pick?

In that light, Beck doesn’t look so bad sandwiched between Mesar at 26 (useless) and Hutson (home run).
 
GGpX said:
Choose one or the other.

You can't in one breath say it's not a premium pick, then the next say we used a pick right after on a homerun swing.

There are top-6 forwards & top-4 d-men who are selected every single year with second round picks. Is the hit rate low, yes, but there are players available each year.
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It's hard to say, we used to be pretty good with 2nd round picks with Subban, even Maxim Lapierre was worth it. But the ones made by Bergevin all busted. In the end, I don't think there's a particular strategy, just execution, if you make a "safe" pick, make sure he actually has a high floor, or if you try a "home run", he really needs to have a high ceiling to be worth it.
 
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GGpX said:
All of those players, if they work out, could become top-6 forwards or top-4 d-men. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but if they don't, I get the feeling they could maybe figure out a way to carve a career in the league as depth pieces.

There is no world in which Owen Beck becomes a top-6 forward unless he plays for this year's edition of the San Jose Sharks. The upside is low and I have no appetite for players like that. The same reason I would have no appetite for drafting a big d-man with no offensive talent whatsoever, like what New York did with Emery or Toronto did what Danford a few months ago. I don't care if they make the NHL or not, I can find those prototypes in free agency or trade every single year.
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Still laughing at the Danford pick , he has zero zero offensive ability in junior
 
GrandWazoo said:
I get the math, yet for all players, it's a matter of ceiling x probability to reach the ceiling. A potential 3rd line center with high probability (and at worse a 4th line center) vs a potential 2nd line winger with a low probability (and otherwise bust) is a discussion to have. You hit on Beck with your 2nd round pick, then you don't have to spend your 2nds to acquire that player for 10+ years and then you might be more inclined to take swings or use those picks to acquire other players.
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great post

For me that low probably player or bust should have special traits

Elite shot , elite IQ like Hutson or size and strength like Knies with skill

These Firkus types are boom or bust , they arent built for bottom 6 roles
 
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