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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

BG said:
This is why when I calculate pts/total cap I only use the available cap dollars (even though not every team spends to the upper limit).

So take a players point totals (or projected point totals) and divide it into league-wide totals, then multiply by total available cap dollars. It's not perfect, but makes sense to me as a way to properly disperse contracts.

This calc showed 140pt MacKinnon was produced around $16.5mil in points percentage last season.

McDavid: $14.1
Nylander: $12.0
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A better approach but even then imo, these guys use the production of similar players as benchmarks in negotiations. It's a self reinforcing system of evaluation. Marner is going to use Nylander and Pastrnak + cap inflation (as in, the total amount of dollars available to each team, not all teams combined) in his contract negotiations. Any system of determining what a player is "worth" in dollar figure that doesn't peg to the reality of the team cap marketplace is flawed imo.
 
Just to support that for a moment. Auston Matthews clearly uses Connor McDavid as a comparable in contract negotiations. But by cap% his new deal is still lower than Connor's existing deal, despite it being 750K AAV more

Matthews: 15.87%
McDavid: 16.67%

Connor is the current king of the castle and the market arranges itself mostly rationally below him. Teams that ignore that sign players to bad deals.
 
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the reality of Tavares has fallen far short of the ideal when he was signed, but let's remember Kadri was playoff suspended several times, and secondarily, he was a lousy third line centre when put in that role here. Of course the move hasn't worked out for us, nobody would deny that...but I absolutely get why they traded him to begin with.

but honestly, with the way this team is managed, I can't say with any degree of certainty that whatever they would have done instead of signing Tavares would have been any better. good odds we'd be worse off, in fact, based on track record.

similarly, much is made of the ~3 million he's overpaid by, but what would we really be doing with that money? very likely overpaying somebody else with it, since we overpay just about everyone.
 
Montana said:
BG’s point needs to be repeated tho…..not only do we not get the team friendly deals Florida, Tampa, Vegas, Boston got…..which allow their top 4 to be cheaper than ours……we also signed our guys at the near exact moment to get maximally fucked by Covid & the lack of cap increases.

Throw in us still actually being very good, but having shit puck luck, losing Tavares for one series, Kadri for two…..and yeah, our process was gonna live up to its potential when we put it in place.


Sucks, but that’s the reality of it.
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The playoffs have so much randomness… but it’s hard to believe it when the same result keeps happening…. But it’s still true!

Last year the Leafs didn’t really deserve to go that far….half of the D and too many support players were crap.

But other years, they didn’t get the bounce. This year’s Oilers are a good example of the playoff rollercoaster. At times they stunk and their lack of depth often looked problematic but there they were one muffin away from winning an improbable comeback Cup.

And in game 7, Connor and Drai were held pointless but nobody blamed them because they had historic runs…. and how many folks would really be surprised if Matthews did the same one year?
 
Also, here's a good illustration on that from recent high end UFA history.

Panarin: 14.27%
Tavares: 13.84%

That 5 year stretch of JT's we're looking at where he was the 20-30th best offensive player in the NHL? Panarin was 4th in total points, 5th in PPG, 5th in even strength points. 99-100th percentile pay for 99-100th percentile production.
 
MindzEye said:
Also, here's a good illustration on that from recent high end UFA history.

Panarin: 14.27%
Tavares: 13.84%

That 5 year stretch of JT's we're looking at where he was the 20-30th best offensive player in the NHL? Panarin was 4th in total points, 5th in PPG, 5th in even strength points. 99-100th percentile pay for 99-100th percentile production.
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and panarin was the #1 offensive guy on the team. The guy who helped other people score.
 
MindzEye said:
Worked so well with Noah Gregor, and we're already hooked on running it back.
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The saving grace is that I don't think "Banksy" is an actual insider. Sounds like bs. A Mackenzie Entwistle rumor being bs is unacceptable as fuck but I don't believe him. This guy is too dreadful even for Tre to be tempted.
 
zeke said:
and panarin was the #1 offensive guy on the team. The guy who helped other people score.
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Yeah, exactly. Other guys broke out under him. Kreider became a PP monster, Zbad broke out into a decent 1C shortly after Panarin got there. He had a ripple impact through the organization, turning existing players into better players.
 
CH1 said:
The playoffs have so much randomness… but it’s hard to believe it when the same result keeps happening…. But it’s still true!
Click to expand...

Precisely, but each added year (including this past one when we didn’t deserve it necessarily but still went 7) makes all the prior ones feel more legitmate unfortunately.

We all feel differently about Dubas, Tavares, the team as a whole, if we just had a few small bounces go our way two of those years and had a pair of ECF’s under our belts.


CH1 said:
Last year the Leafs didn’t really deserve to go that far….half of the D and too many support players were crap.

But other years, they didn’t get the bounce. This year’s Oilers are a good example of the playoff rollercoaster. At times they stunk and their lack of depth often looked problematic but there they were one muffin away from winning an improbable comeback Cup.

And in game 7, Connor and Drai were held pointless but nobody blamed them because they had historic runs…. and how many folks would really be surprised if Matthews did the same one year?
Click to expand...

or Tavares in one of those first 4-5 years….and imagine how much that could have changed his perceived worth as a signing.


101 mentioned it earlier tho, and I am most annoyed that we haven’t had one real serious Presidents trophy run during this time. It almost feels like we stopped caring about regular season 3-4 years ago. because winning a playoff round was all that mattered
 
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