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Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

Preston said:
It's simple really. You asked what they could have done if they didn't get Tavares. And my answer is that there were a lot of options. A whole world of opportunity and risks that they would have felt more comfortable taking without that cap burden on the books. The money could have been spent better elsewhere, full stop. Which is the whole point of team building in the NHL and how teams win cups. That's where I stand on it.

I believed one thing at the time, I think it would be stubborn to continue believing it when the data no longer backs up that opinion.
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could've taken that money this year and signed Chandler Stephenson AND Joel Edmundson, and still had a few bucks left over!!!
 
Wayward DP said:
Tavares blocked Matthews development cause Babs treated JT like the #1 C. hardly controversial. ice time will back this up, same with usage.
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Not defending Babs but there is a big difference between how much ice-time an 18-19 year old phenom earns and deserves, compared to how much ice-time a 22-23 year old superstar earns and deserves. There may well have been a legit reason to ease him into bigger minutes, although it's hard to understand the lack of PP time for Auston early on.
 
Preston said:
It's simple really. You asked what they could have done if they didn't get Tavares. And my answer is that there were a lot of options. A whole world of opportunity and risks that they would have felt more comfortable taking without that cap burden on the books. The money could have been spent better elsewhere, full stop. Which is the whole point of team building in the NHL and how teams win cups. That's where I stand on it.

I believed one thing at the time, I think it would be stubborn to continue believing it when the data no longer backs up that opinion.
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It’s simple really….i asked:

who should we have paid say $10m x 7 to, that hit free agency over that span that would have realistically came here for that, and/or didn’t just resign with who they were with.

is there a few that instantly come to mind?
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You said he’s not that unique….and I’m just curious which other talent of that ilk we should have spent it on. I got the impression you meant others like that hit the market.
 
If we are using hindsight as our guide, I'm sure future cap projections looked very good in 2018. Shanaplan was expecting to be able to spend serious cap dollars to surround that core with good offensive players. Covid changed everything. As did Covid-era expansion.
 
Montana said:
In year 6 of a UFA deal, if he’s still bringing $9.4m of value, I’m not too too chuffed as to where it’s coming from.
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Just wanted to drop a quick note on this for clarity.

Dom doesn't peg those values to market realities. He's created a statistical model and then assigns dollar values to the production with no ceiling. In practice what this leads to is elite players generating 15-20+ million dollars worth of value in a year when the market realities is that they're paid 10-13.5. This distorts the value created by players further down the page imo and isn't linked to the market realities that NHL teams face.

So 9.4 million sounds like a lot of value (we'll set aside where the value comes from for a moment) but that's not 9.4 million in NHL cap value, that's 9.4 million in Dom bucks.

The reality of the NHL financial landscape is that MVP performances are worth 11-13.25 million dollars, not 20 million.
 
BG said:
If we are using hindsight as our guide, I'm sure future cap projections looked very good in 2018. Shanaplan was expecting to be able to spend serious cap dollars to surround that core with good offensive players. Covid changed everything. As did Covid-era expansion.
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Maybe the most important point.
 
BG said:
If we are using hindsight as our guide, I'm sure future cap projections looked very good in 2018. Shanaplan was expecting to be able to spend serious cap dollars to surround that core with good offensive players. Covid changed everything. As did Covid-era expansion.
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Great point, this was definitely part of the equation. We definitely got screwed by spending that high a % of cap and then getting covid-ed for several years right afterwards.
 
BG said:
If we are using hindsight as our guide, I'm sure future cap projections looked very good in 2018. Shanaplan was expecting to be able to spend serious cap dollars to surround that core with good offensive players. Covid changed everything. As did Covid-era expansion.
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I think that's certainly true.

We're kinda overcomplicating it though I think. It just really didn't work. Like not even two rounds work.

So it's natural to be sitting here thinking maybe we shoulda just kept Kadri afterall, IMO.
 
leafman101 said:
Literally no team that has won has paid its 4 best players as much as we have, and no team that has won's 4 highest paid players are all forwards. The entire premise of the Core 4 was flawed.
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Yep. The counter point to the argument against paying 4 forwards was that we "can and we will" find or develop high quality players to put around them to balance out our cap position without surrounding them with junk.

Massive flop, because it's fucking hard.
 
Montana said:
It’s simple really….i asked:




You said he’s not that unique….and I’m just curious which other talent of that ilk we should have spent it on. I got the impression you meant others like that hit the market.
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I answered and said that they could have allocated the dollars to one of the many top pair d available over the years. Why does it have to be a UFA? Many players of his caliber have been available at not that steep of a cost and make far less money than him.

And why does it matter if one believes a certain caliber of player is rarely available in free agency? Why does that have to mean you should sign him to superstar money every time? Rare does not = do it for sure without thinking.
 
MindzEye said:
Just wanted to drop a quick note on this for clarity.

Dom doesn't peg those values to market realities. He's created a statistical model and then assigns dollar values to the production with no ceiling. In practice what this leads to is elite players generating 15-20+ million dollars worth of value in a year when the market realities is that they're paid 10-13.5. This distorts the value created by players further down the page imo and isn't linked to the market realities that NHL teams face.
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Thanks, that’s a fucking gigantic caveat I wasn’t aware of.

MindzEye said:
So 9.4 million sounds like a lot of value (we'll set aside where the value comes from for a moment) but that's not 9.4 million in NHL cap value, that's 9.4 million in Dom bucks.

The reality of the NHL financial landscape is that MVP performances are worth 11-13.25 million dollars, not 20 million.
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Just cause I’m primarily interested in this one point on this topic overall…..what do you think JT’s actual $$ value was for years 1-5?

Benefit of hindsight and all the nerdies, you’re paying him the full value of his per game value over that time….what would his five year deal have looked like?
 
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