Core 4 No More: The Motherfucking Off-Season Thread

[Wayward DP]

There’s some truth to that…..we signed on to the concept this board always wanted leading into that era…..pay for top talent, and don’t overpay for mediocrity.

Which I still don’t think is a bad concept…


Don’t you turn to the dark side, and become a results over process guy.

Tavares is not and has never really been 'top talent' though, which is the problem, cause he's been paid as such

 

[fergy57]

Don't tell him that.

Why Maple Leafs’ John Tavares is accepting a reduced offensive role – Sportsnet.ca

 

[Preston]

There’s some truth to that…..we signed on to the concept this board always wanted leading into that era…..pay for top talent, and don’t overpay for mediocrity.

Which I still don’t think is a bad concept…


Don’t you turn to the dark side, and become a results over process guy.

I'm not stubborn enough to continue banging the same drum even when I no longer believe something is true. The idea of Tavares was great and I supported it at the time. But I truly believe it held them back. I don't think their process has been that great.

As 101 points out, they have never been a presidents trophy winning top 2 or 3 team in the NHL. They've been good for a long time but never good enough imo. And part of that is because they were locked into an 11m dollar guy that imo was never worth that. The idea of getting him was supposed to be so that they'd have two legit 1st line caliber lines. That never really happened. In fact that Tavares line was often a liability in many stretches and many playoff series even when he played with Willy. It's just not good enough. And it was one thing that prevented them from taking the next step.

 

[axlsalinger]

Would be fascinating to know if they ever came close to asking either Tavares or Marner to waive their NMC this off-season. Seems kinda like they didn't, but also equally possible that they did and received a firm "no chance", leading to this status quo approach. Of course they could have drawn a line in the sand, made it public and tried to force them one of them out, as some have suggested, but I still can't agree that was the best course of action.

And of course, there's a small chance it could still happen.

 

[zeke]

Out of genuine curiosity given your knowledge on players values, etc….whats the absolute max you’d have given Tavares on a one year deal for this coming season alone?

Somewhere around $6m seems about right. I guess you could squeeze it a bit higher than that.

 

[Montana]

Tavares is not and has never really been 'top talent' though, which is the problem, cause he's been paid as such

This is hard to ask without it sounding like snark, or a set up to a gotcha…..but I am curious what you’d put his fair value at over say his first 5 seasons, with the added benefit of hindsight.

If you knew you’d get the production we did from him, but you can’t underpay him by a penny or we lose him for nothing…..what would you have paid for him, as a non-believer in the concept of UFA acquisition cost.

Was he a $9.5m player in your opinion over that span even?

 

[Wayward DP]

This is hard to ask without it sounding like snark, or a set up to a gotcha…..but I am curious what you’d put his fair value at over say his first 5 seasons, with the added benefit of hindsight.

If you knew you’d get the production we did from him, but you can’t underpay him by a penny or we lose him for nothing…..what would you have paid for him, as a non-believer in the concept of UFA acquisition cost.

Was he a $9.5m player in your opinion over that span even?

I would want to look at data before giving any opinion to ensure it is properly informed.

With that caveat out of the way, I'll do some spitballing....

I don't know that he was ever a $10m player, aside from maybe one or two seasons. 5 x $8.5 - $9 mill seems reasonable based on nothing more than my instincts.

 

[Wayward DP]

This is hard to ask without it sounding like snark, or a set up to a gotcha…..but I am curious what you’d put his fair value at over say his first 5 seasons, with the added benefit of hindsight.

If you knew you’d get the production we did from him, but you can’t underpay him by a penny or we lose him for nothing…..what would you have paid for him, as a non-believer in the concept of UFA acquisition cost.

Was he a $9.5m player in your opinion over that span even?

and to answer your question in your final sentence - yes, in spurts. and maybe for one season's worth. but not overall/cumulatively...

 

[Montana]

Somewhere around $6m seems about right. I guess you could squeeze it a bit higher than that.

If you had to pay JT every penny he was worth for the production we got over the first 5 years of his deal….what would that AAV have been? Any rough estimate?

Do we have access to Dom’s end of season values for him in those years?

 

[Preston]

And for the record I supported that signing at the time and didn't blame Dubas for doing it so I'm not claiming I'm smarter than him.

He's a very good player and had a very good career. He has just been overpaid the entire time, other than maybe his first year with the Leafs where he was spectacular. This would have been ok if he led an elite possession dominating second line consistently, and especially in the playoffs. But he didn't. So it was a failure. Time to move on.

 

[axlsalinger]

I am curious what you’d put his fair value at over say his first 5 seasons, with the added benefit of hindsight.

It's still completely irrelevant. Nobody has ever signed a free agent contract with the benefit of hindsight, and in fact we all know FA prices are usually inflated for obvious reasons.

He had to be worth at least 9.5-10 in several of those years, and again, that extra milly is the cost of doing business. It's also partially justified that you don't have to give up assets to sign a free agent, as you would in a trade, so maybe it's worth that little bit of extra coin.

Whining about the first 5 years of JT is kind of wasted time IMO, but I do agree trading him right now (if it's possible) would be the right move.

 

[hockeylover]

I will also say that in the first couple years we had Dubas, I also really believed he'd be able to fill out the roster with effective value guys that could make that Core 4 work.

And I'm not really sure I can pinpoint exactly when he sorta veered from his path a bit but it sure seemed like he did.

 

[zeke]

If you had to pay JT every penny he was worth for the production we got over the first 5 years of his deal….what would that AAV have been? Any rough estimate?

Do we have access to Dom’s end of season values for him in those years?

seems like comparable centers like scheifele zibanejad o'reilly etc live in the $7.5-8.5 range.

 

[Montana]

I would want to look at data before giving any opinion to ensure it is properly informed.

100, same.

With that caveat out of the way, I'll do some spitballing....

I don't know that he was ever a $10m player, aside from maybe one or two seasons. 5 x $8.5 - $9 mill seems reasonable based on nothing more than my instincts.

Yeah, honestly we’re not far off….maybe a mill or so here or there, but overall we just disagree on the concept of acquisition cost re: UFA’s.

The couple mill here or there that we “overspent” on Tavares, is just always so insignificant to me relative to the Kessel retention money, Marner overpay money, Mzarek fumble, Kampf’s, Jarkrok’s etc….those fuck ups just dwarf any negative impact Tavares extra mill or two cost us, for me personally.

I’m just also so so so so skeptical that we’d have been so lucky as to allocate that $11m flawlessly and not fumble one or two of the signings it went towards, that resulted in an even bigger loss of value by years 6 & 7 anyway.

 

[Preston]

I agree with the just get good players and pay them whatever idea. But Tavares is just very good as opposed to franchise altering. I'm not sure 11m for him was ever all that worthwhile. Right idea, wrong player.

 

[zeke]

don't forget that when we signed him the general consensus was that he was better than Matthews, both in the fanbase and the coach.

He was never that level of player tho.

 

[Montana]

I will also say that in the first couple years we had Dubas, I also really believed he'd be able to fill out the roster with effective value guys that could make that Core 4 work.

%

This is ultimately the real failure of the Dubas era…he made it part way there with his Hyman, Bunting, Kapanen moves…..but never quite pulled off the kinds of value deals we needed to make it all work.

And I'm not really sure I can pinpoint exactly when he sorta veered from his path a bit but it sure seemed like he did.

Yeah, longer it went, the worse it got it seemed.

 

[Montana]

I agree with the just get good players and pay them whatever idea. But Tavares is just very good as opposed to franchise altering. I'm not sure 11m for him was ever all that worthwhile. Right idea, wrong player.

Problem is, players like him rarely come available in free agency….let alone stone cold locks to be even better.

 

[zeke]

And what's even more annoying is that they seemed to think Gentleman John had the perfect type of intangibles to lead the team, when it seems pretty clear that this emotionless deadeyed career loser is the exact opposite.

 

[Preston]

Problem is, players like him rarely come available in free agency….let alone stone cold locks to be even better.

This is what I thought at the time. But in hindsight I don't think he's all that unique. Yes, I have the benefit of hindsight. I was wrong at the time too. I also don't think that "players like him rarely are available in free agency" means it's definitely worth it and they should definitely sign him.