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GDT #14: OCT 29, 7:00 SN - Caps @ Leafs

Auston tied Marner for team scoring lead with 15. 59gl/88pt pace now. Only 3 pp pts in there.
 
MindzEye said:
I'm familiar with the numbers. That wasn't an unlucky PP last year, it was a bad PP. Almost never tried to cross the royal road, but the shots generated were from what the statistics consider to be prime ice. It's not that simple though.
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I've heard that argument before, but not sure how much I buy that xGF are worth less on the PP. Especially cosidering the Leafs had the 2nd best PP in the league over the previous 2 seasons. Considering the chances didn't drop significantly, but SH% did, it certainly looks like luck.
 
leafman101 said:
I've heard that argument before, but not sure how much I buy that xGF are worth less on the PP. Especially cosidering the Leafs had the 2nd best PP in the league over the previous 2 seasons. Considering the chances didn't drop significantly, but SH% did, it certainly looks like luck.
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Tough to tell. Anecdotally I just remember so many tavares slot shots that never seemed to have a chance to go in.
 
leafman101 said:
I've heard that argument before, but not sure how much I buy that xGF are worth less on the PP. Especially cosidering the Leafs had the 2nd best PP in the league over the previous 2 seasons. Considering the chances didn't drop significantly, but SH% did, it certainly looks like luck.
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I think we had enough sample for luck to sort itself out. The PP was basically league bottom inept outside of 1 relatively short stretch to start the season and then one really short stretch in Feb were it ran at like 40% for 7-10 days. It looked like a bad PP for most of that. I think it's more likely that xGF (which is really just shot volume & shot location wrapped up in a nice package) was just wrong here.
 
zeke said:
Tough to tell. Anecdotally I just remember so many tavares slot shots that never seemed to have a chance to go in.
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+1 and a lot of bad Mitch wristers into the goalies chest that likewise, had no chance to go in, but was from a "good" shooting location.
 
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