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GDT #47 - 2024/1/18 - Old Baby Bro

Artnes said:
My issue with xg sometimes

Drai scores his second goal from a 80.5 deg angle with almost nothing to shot at and scores. Nothing surprising for Drai as this is his money spot and even for him that's not a 62% goal

Does Reaves have the same odds there?

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The lesson here is to not go too wild over single game samples! Particularly for individual players. The utility of xgf has never been about single game performances for individual players with sometimes under 10 total events.
 
I agree but my issue is with that particular play having such weight where most are not scoring from there unless it's an empty net

And I do understand the model cannot account all variables but if you go back and watch it you are left asking htf did he score there.

Likely it has to do with over x amount of simulations if there is a shot from that location the odds of it being a tap in or rebound are much higher than the scenario what Drai did last night
 
Artnes said:
My issue with xg sometimes

Drai scores his second goal from a 80.5 deg angle with almost nothing to shot at and scores. Nothing surprising for Drai as this is his money spot and even for him that's not a 62% goal

Does Reaves have the same odds there?

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Is it fair to say that if a shot goes in as a goal, that the shot was on net?

The only example of a goal being scored without going into the net is an empty net shot and a defender throwing his stick.
 
habs fans crying about Montembault but watching the replays here, monty made at least 5 or 6 massive legit point blank saves, and 4 of the goals he let up were to guys all alone in the slot. and a 5th was on a rocket one timer from the best goalscorer in history. the 6th was definitely iffy but went through at least 3 bodies on it's way to the top corner.
 
zeke said:
habs fans crying about Montembault but watching the replays here, monty made at least 5 or 6 massive legit point blank saves, and 4 of the goals he let up were to guys all alone in the slot. and a 5th was on a rocket one timer from the best goalscorer in history. the 6th was definitely iffy but went through at least 3 bodies on it's way to the top corner.
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He was bad. Nice try zekey.
 
MindzEye said:
Better goal scorer than any Hab in history too....maybe that low bar isn't so low anymore?
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Anyone can get lucky once. Matthews has had 2 seasons where he hit 60 and 69 goals. Otherwise he's never cracked 50 and we know he does Sweet Fanny Adam in games that matter.

Guy Lafleur had 6 straight 50+ goal seasons and won the Cup 4 times during that stretch as well as winning the Conn Smythe.

So it depends on your definition of what constitutes "better", I guess. I prefer the player who doesn't only score when nothing much is on the line.
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Anyone can get lucky once. Matthews has had 2 seasons where he hit 60 and 69 goals. Otherwise he's never cracked 50 and we know he does Sweet Fanny Adam in games that matter.

Guy Lafleur had 6 straight 50+ goal seasons and won the Cup 4 times during that stretch as well as winning the Conn Smythe.

So it depends on your definition of what constitutes "better", I guess. I prefer the player who doesn't only score when nothing much is on the line.
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The first paragraph of this post is so fucking dumb that I would like to propose another temporary ban. Do I have a second?
 
WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
Anyone can get lucky once. Matthews has had 2 seasons where he hit 60 and 69 goals. Otherwise he's never cracked 50 and we know he does Sweet Fanny Adam in games that matter.

Guy Lafleur had 6 straight 50+ goal seasons and won the Cup 4 times during that stretch as well as winning the Conn Smythe.

So it depends on your definition of what constitutes "better", I guess. I prefer the player who doesn't only score when nothing much is on the line.
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Yeah bud, the 50's just doesn't exist in this context.

Richard had a great career, but when you spent your entire career facing pre face mask goaltending, you're not in the conversation for best goal scorer of all time.

"Anyone can get lucky once" and then proceeds to mention two seasons...and avoids mention of the 3rd, covid shortened season where he scored 41 in 52 games (65 goal pace).

Re: Lafleur, the 70's and their video game offensive numbers are why the adjusted goals stat was created. Lafleur's goal scoring prime was the 6 yr run from 74-80, during those 6 seasons he had an adjusted goals/82 of 47 goals. Auston's currently at 59 adjusted goals/82 for his career....so I think we know how this ends.
 
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WeHaveMoreCupsThanYou said:
What's better in your view? Two 60+ goal seasons that ended in failure or six 50+ goal seasons, four of which ended in championships?
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Did he win those championships in a vacuum? Did he get supporting goaltending? Were there ANY other players on his team that were involved in obtaining said cups?
View: https://media0.giphy.com/media/l1J9FiGxR61OcF2mI/giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952laxhs0c160wf2o9h0h0c25dbm3d9p9fnfsc49ffj&ep=v1_internal_gif_by_id&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
 
He did get help, but he also kept scoring when the playoffs started. He didn't need his picture to be put on the side of a milk carton.

He also beat the Leafs in the playoffs a couple of times.
 
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