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GDT - Round 2, Game 1 - Can Climate Change Hurry Up and Put Florida Under Water?

CH1 said:
from what I saw, Leafs made too many individual glaring mistakes last night.

it seemed like every Panther goal could have been avoided with average defending
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Yep. Goal 1, cousins spins off McCabe; goal 2 rielly, Matthews and knies didn’t communicate and allowed fla to get to a puck that they shouldn’t have Been able to get to, plus the knies tip; goal 3 was off the brutal McCabe punch and goal 4 off the McCabe penalty (and ultimately was probably stoppable).

Fla also made its share of mistakes but none as glaring imo
 
LeafGm said:
It’s certainly an improvement on the Leafs previous game one, at least.

Plus it was probably unavoidable that the Leafs were going to lose this game, considering it was their seventh game of the playoffs.
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it was better than losing the 7th game of the first round.
 
LeafGm said:
I still can’t get over this one play where he went flying up the middle of the ice with a clear path to the net, then turned and just skated nonchalantly in the opposite direction of the net.

It’s like it was a video game and someone’s controller disconnected in the middle of play.
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it seemed to me like he didn't realize the d-man had fallen
 
LeafGm said:
I still can’t get over this one play where he went flying up the middle of the ice with a clear path to the net, then turned and just skated nonchalantly in the opposite direction of the net.

It’s like it was a video game and someone’s controller disconnected in the middle of play.
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It was what everyone who either loves or hates Willy sees in him, all wrapped up into one play.

The puck handling at speed to create problems, the ability to create separation from his defender....but he obviously never planned to try to take the puck to the net himself and was opting to hold up play and hope the 3rd guy in was a Leaf. A safe play when we needed something more direct
 
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Nah. No reason to move on from him unless someone is blowing their brains out for him.

Last 4 playoffs combined hes on a 35G 82 point pace.
 
Matthews

vBenett: 5:36, 29.5%
vLundell: 5:24, 61.8%
vBarkov: 4:27, 28.2%
vStaal: 2:07, 100.0%

Tavares

vBarkov 6:21, 62.3%
vLundell 4:01, 76.6%
vBennett 3:15, 02.3%
vStaal 1:40, 41.3%

O'Reilly

vLundell 4:46, 35.1%
vBarkov 3:49, 16.7%
vBennett 3:00, 100.0%
vStaal 1:00, 60.7%

Kampf

vBennett 4:49, 32.6%
vLundell 1:58, 100.0%
vBarkov 1:39, 00.0%
vStaal 0:34, 50.0%


not too amped about the Bennett/Tkachuk line clowning any line they went up against. except I guess the ROR line. was going to get upset with kampf getting all that time against that line but he didn't do any worse.


maybe some of our dmen did better vs them.

McCabe v Tkachuk: 8:00, 49.3%
Brodie v TkachukL 6:43, 82.8%

Rielly v Tkachuk: 7:40, 20.4%
Schenn v TkachukL: 6:22, 23.0%

Gio v Tkachuk: 2:48, 02.3%
Lilly v Tkachuk: 1:49, 03.9%



hmm maybe these matchups are a bit more revealing.
 
mbow30 said:
Love him while we got him because I think Willy’s gonezo this summer.
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100% agree.…he could obviously change that with how the remainder of the playoffs play out, but as it stands today, I share the gut feeling that he’ll be dealt this summer. Likely in an old fashioned “hockey trade” at that.
 
zeke said:
Matthews

vBenett: 5:36, 29.5%
vLundell: 5:24, 61.8%
vBarkov: 4:27, 28.2%
vStaal: 2:07, 100.0%

Tavares

vBarkov 6:21, 62.3%
vLundell 4:01, 76.6%
vBennett 3:15, 02.3%
vStaal 1:40, 41.3%

O'Reilly

vLundell 4:46, 35.1%
vBarkov 3:49, 16.7%
vBennett 3:00, 100.0%
vStaal 1:00, 60.7%

Kampf

vBennett 4:49, 32.6%
vLundell 1:58, 100.0%
vBarkov 1:39, 00.0%
vStaal 0:34, 50.0%


not too amped about the Bennett/Tkachuk line clowning any line they went up against. except I guess the ROR line. was going to get upset with kampf getting all that time against that line but he didn't do any worse.


maybe some of our dmen did better vs them.

McCabe v Tkachuk: 8:00, 49.3%
Brodie v TkachukL 6:43, 82.8%

Rielly v Tkachuk: 7:40, 20.4%
Schenn v TkachukL: 6:22, 23.0%

Gio v Tkachuk: 2:48, 02.3%
Lilly v Tkachuk: 1:49, 03.9%



hmm maybe these matchups are a bit more revealing.
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do you have any concerns about drawing too big of conclusions from these single game samples, particularly when they same sort of percentages are being used for season long performances (which is obviously more descriptive/predictive) but not at all, when looking at game by game samples?

Just feels like on the surface there would be a fuckton of noise….while using the same visual representation as the less noisy season data. Especially since percentages mask how many events we’re event talking about.
 
Montana said:
do you have any concerns about drawing too big of conclusions from these single game samples, particularly when they same sort of percentages are being used for season long performances (which is obviously more descriptive/predictive) but not at all, when looking at game by game samples?

Just feels like on the surface there would be a fuckton of noise….while using the same visual representation as the less noisy season data. Especially since percentages mask how many events we’re event talking about.
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i mean we're not trying to figure how good the players are. just trying to see what happened during this game.
 
zeke said:
i mean we're not trying to figure how good the players are. just trying to see what happened during this game.
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right….but my point is it’s using markers that we use for deciphering how good the players are during the season. Which I think is bound to cause a poor reading on what took place.

especially when there’s no representation of how many events, went into the percentages. A 1/2 50% is quite different than a 5/10 50%…


Just strikes me as rife with potential for misreading what took place, or making mountains out of molehills…….I could be way off tho. Was just curious if it was so you thought about when looking at single games Vs seasons.
 
I mean awhen you watch the game and assessing how guys played you're looking at what good and bad things happened on the ice when they were out there.

I don't see anything particularly misleading about seeing what kind of shot quality vs and against happened when they were out there. it doesn't mean anything as to how good the players are but it helps us understand what happened out there.

of course when i'm looking at the numbers i see the number of events too, even if i don't post them. i'd probably mention if something looked particularly interesting there.
 
They should go back to 11/7. It works much better with this roster. I don't know if that stat split is floating around anywhere.

The worst player on the team is replaced with a rotation of our best players.

Gus improves PP2, and adds some puck skating ability to the back end. Also eases the minute load on McCabe/Brodie.
 
leafman101 said:
They should go back to 11/7. It works much better with this roster. I don't know if that stat split is floating around anywhere.

The worst player on the team is replaced with a rotation of our best players.

Gus improves PP2, and adds some puck skating ability to the back end. Also eases the minute load on McCabe/Brodie.
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11/7 isn’t ideal, but it’s probably the best way of deploying this roster at this point.

ZAR/Kampf/Laff is simply a trash 4th line, so deleting one of those guys from the lineup and double-shifting someone from our top-9 with the remaining two whenever they hit the ice at five-on-five is the best way to go.

Though I do question why Gus is ahead of Timmins on the depth chart if we are going to dress seven D.
 
LeafGm said:
11/7 isn’t ideal, but it’s probably the best way of deploying this roster at this point.

ZAR/Kampf/Laff is simply a trash 4th line, so deleting one of those guys from the lineup and double-shifting someone from our top-9 with the remaining two whenever they hit the ice at five-on-five is the best way to go.

Though I do question why Gus is ahead of Timmins on the depth chart if we are going to dress seven D.
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11/7 means you can scratch both of ZAR and Laff. There is no downside!
 
leafman101 said:
They should go back to 11/7. It works much better with this roster. I don't know if that stat split is floating around anywhere.

The worst player on the team is replaced with a rotation of our best players.

Gus improves PP2, and adds some puck skating ability to the back end. Also eases the minute load on McCabe/Brodie.
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Sometimes you just kind of fuck convention and go with what works.


Box and 1
 
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