Hey Nerds: Blockchain
- Thread starter zeke
- Start date
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
buying back the chunk I sold at 19 in late Feb. I got 14 as my stop.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
EV breakdown:
Cresco Labs: 5.5b
Green Thumb: 7.9b
Trulieve: 6.3b
I'll skip Curaleaf since they dilute secondly and I'm too lazy to figure out their share count right now. I'm assuming it's in the trillions at this point.
Anyway... First impressions: Cresco feels cheap relatively speaking. My only concern with them is their fairly high debt but after this quarter I would not be surprised if they are the #2 operator in terms of revenue (they'll continue to be less profitable than Thumb, mind you and Thumb may have additional untapped growth based on their unused licenses). I think they could pass Thumb in revenue either this quarter or next as their wholesale approach has been providing some nice growth. And then they have same AZ presence (unlike Thumb) as well which we won't see until Q1 but yeah.. Seems analysts aren't quite as fond as them as they are with the others and I can't figure out why. For years they were valued higher than Thumb and I spent my life screaming that it was incorrect. Now I feel that we have over-corrected.
But maybe not. I don't know. I think this kind of thing happened when the OH deal was closing where CL was being shorted as we came closer to the close date and money was shifted into OH. But all it did was drive the CL price below reasonable value in the end and I think that's happening again.
Cresco Labs: 5.5b
Green Thumb: 7.9b
Trulieve: 6.3b
I'll skip Curaleaf since they dilute secondly and I'm too lazy to figure out their share count right now. I'm assuming it's in the trillions at this point.
Anyway... First impressions: Cresco feels cheap relatively speaking. My only concern with them is their fairly high debt but after this quarter I would not be surprised if they are the #2 operator in terms of revenue (they'll continue to be less profitable than Thumb, mind you and Thumb may have additional untapped growth based on their unused licenses). I think they could pass Thumb in revenue either this quarter or next as their wholesale approach has been providing some nice growth. And then they have same AZ presence (unlike Thumb) as well which we won't see until Q1 but yeah.. Seems analysts aren't quite as fond as them as they are with the others and I can't figure out why. For years they were valued higher than Thumb and I spent my life screaming that it was incorrect. Now I feel that we have over-corrected.
But maybe not. I don't know. I think this kind of thing happened when the OH deal was closing where CL was being shorted as we came closer to the close date and money was shifted into OH. But all it did was drive the CL price below reasonable value in the end and I think that's happening again.
wolverine88
Active member
he couldn't wait till wednesday? i'm supposed to retire on tuesday after vff earnings or declare bankruptcy
Preston
MBow30 alt account
I believe he is predicting the selling will happen on Monday at 10:43am sharp. Dude has some ability. An AVALANCHE of selling.
in all honesty if it actually happens I'm immediately buying more puts and I'll never doubt him and his weirdly specific predictions again
wolverine88
Active member
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
it's part of the magic!!!!
CH1
The Artist Formerly Known as chiggins.
I'm hedged with a slug of cheap SPY Monday puts --- hope they expire worthless