Leaf Rumours
- Thread starter Hoss
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, it was weird and took me about 30 minutes of looking at numbers to start to realize it. There was very little correlation between pre draft numbers and NHL offensive success, but that first post draft year, there's almost no exceptions. It's almost a pre requisite that to score 30 goals or 60 points in the NHL you have to be at least 1.2ppg as a CHL product in that first post draft season.
Very, very few exceptions, somewhere along the lines of 2% over the last 12 seasons.
zeke
Well-known member
misleading comparison.
it's like comparing L.Schenn and T.Myers based on their first couple of years - in both cases, one was an early physically developed kid playing topline minutes almost immediately, while the other was a pubescent kid still growing and playing in a much less prominent role.
Artnes
Well-known member
I could give a shit if he scores 0 goals. As long as he is a beast down low and feeds the guys like Kessel who can score, I'll be a happy man.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Thing is, he's never shown himself to be a great puck distributor either. So I'm not holding my breath waiting to see if he can become a 50 assist guy should he not become anything more than a 20-25 goal scorer.
Artnes
Well-known member
Because he is playing behind 2 of the top 3 players in the entire ****ing league.
He would be a number one on a minimum of 25 teams in the league right now.
JaysCyYoung
Legend
No he wouldn't, Arty. Come on man.
Montana
Champion
May be a worthwhile exercise to compile all the players who score over 1.2 ppg their post draft year.....then break that group into tiers based on level of ppg production.
Give us some odds on what a players future upside may be, based on post draft year production.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
15 points is a lot to make up in line mate bias.
There's just so many example of players who go from mediocre linemates to top end linemates and don't see their scoring go up significantly.
Good offensive hockey players make those around them slightly better, mediocre offensive players are only made slightly better by good offensive players.
Once in a while you find guys who just click together and put numbers up significantly higher than anything else they've done in any other situation, but that's the exception and not the rule imo.
number17
Mod Squad
And again, it's so easy to forget Jordan Staal is only 21.
21.
He turns 22 this Sept ... he's younger than Kessel for crying out loud.
So we have a 21 year old who's had to play a checking role because he plays behind 2 of the best centers in the world, and he still managed 50 points.
21.
He turns 22 this Sept ... he's younger than Kessel for crying out loud.
So we have a 21 year old who's had to play a checking role because he plays behind 2 of the best centers in the world, and he still managed 50 points.
axlsalinger
Well-known member
There's some serious value even if that's the top. Every contending team should have a guy like that running the second line.
Plus, you put him out there to kill penalties with Sjostrom and Phaneuf, and suddenly a penalty kill that was a historical embarrassment has the potential to be one of the best in the league.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Good idea, I've never thought of looking at in inversely like that.
I haven't the faintest ****ing clue of where to find a CHL stats engine like that though. Much easier just to compile a list of NHL players who have scored 30 or 60 and work backwards from there. I know hockeydb would have the player stats, but it would be completely uncompiled. I would have to individually search each guy....a lot of garbage work.
Montana
Champion
Likely one of the bigger contributing factors behind Mindz theory......
number17
Mod Squad
I dunno ME. Kessel's old linemate took a 22 points dip in his production paced over 82 games when Kessel left.
Ok I'm cheating a little, because he was also injured, but I don't think 15 points is that hard to make up when you go from goon-linemates to elite linemates, and go from a checking role to offensive role.
Artnes
Well-known member
ok 15. I was caught up in the moment
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Oh, I absolutely agree. But the question was whether or not I would trade Kaberle + Kulemin for him. Not whether or not as a 60+ point 2nd line centre would he be an awesome player to have around.
As good as he is, the old axiom "your goalie is your best penalty killer" holds true. Our PK was a historic embarrassment because Vesa Toskala is a historic embarrassment.
Staal + competent goaltending though could give us a top 5 PK, I definitely agree.
JaysCyYoung
Legend
Places with better number one centres:
New Jersey - Zajac
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin
Philadelphia - M. Richards, Carter
Buffalo - Roy
Boston - Savard
Ottawa - Spezza
Montreal - Plekanec
Washington - Backstrom
Carolina - Big Staal
Atlanta - Antropov
Tampa Bay - Stamkos, Lecavalier
Chicago - Toews, Sharp
Detroit - Datstyk, Zetterberg
Columbus - Vermette
Vancouver - H. Sedin
Colorado - Stastny, Duchene
Minnesota - Baby Koivu
San Jose - Thornton
Los Angeles - Kopitar
Dallas - B. Richards
Anaheim - Getzlaf
He would be a number one centre on the Leafs, Rangers, possibly the Islanders (although I think JT is better at this point), Nashville, possibly St. Louis, Calgary, possibly Edmonton (although I would rather have Seguin, even now), and Phoenix. So that's only six definitive places wher Staal would be the undisputed best centre.
New Jersey - Zajac
Pittsburgh - Crosby, Malkin
Philadelphia - M. Richards, Carter
Buffalo - Roy
Boston - Savard
Ottawa - Spezza
Montreal - Plekanec
Washington - Backstrom
Carolina - Big Staal
Atlanta - Antropov
Tampa Bay - Stamkos, Lecavalier
Chicago - Toews, Sharp
Detroit - Datstyk, Zetterberg
Columbus - Vermette
Vancouver - H. Sedin
Colorado - Stastny, Duchene
Minnesota - Baby Koivu
San Jose - Thornton
Los Angeles - Kopitar
Dallas - B. Richards
Anaheim - Getzlaf
He would be a number one centre on the Leafs, Rangers, possibly the Islanders (although I think JT is better at this point), Nashville, possibly St. Louis, Calgary, possibly Edmonton (although I would rather have Seguin, even now), and Phoenix. So that's only six definitive places wher Staal would be the undisputed best centre.
leafman101
Well-known member
I know Burkie told Lebrun the Savard rumour is BS, and I know he is 32, and I know he had concussion problems last year,
but I really don't think they can get a player who will have a bigger impact back. And that includes if guys like Ryan and Staal, who probably aren't on the table, are on the table.
but I really don't think they can get a player who will have a bigger impact back. And that includes if guys like Ryan and Staal, who probably aren't on the table, are on the table.