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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

According to NaturalStatTrick.com, the Leafs’ top line controlled just 39.1% of the expected goals against the Penguins on Saturday, 42.2% against Chicago on Friday, and 39.5% against Minnesota last Sunday. Simply put, they’ve been getting caved in. We’ve all seen Matthews and Marner have quiet outings only for their elite skill to pop and give the Leafs a big goal, or at least some momentum, but they’ve struggled to tilt the ice in the Leafs’ favour with any consistency.
 
Hildeby had a "bad" game last night, giving up 3 goals on 25 shots, which would have been a great game for any other marlie goalie. All the way down to a .935 on the year.

Niemela with 3 assists for 12pts in 16gms.

Holmberg with a pair of goals.
 
Wonder if we get a Hildeby sighting if Sammy is out for a bit with the illness. Cant run Will to the ground with too many games based on lack of experience even doing 40 games
 
Awesome. At 20 yrs old with his CHL pedigree, if he wasn't way too good for the ECHL already there probably wasn't a lot of hope for him as a prospect.
 
AHL

C Holmberg (24): 9gms, 5gls, 7pts (46gl/64pt pace)
W Steeves (24): 15gms, 11gls, 19pts (60gl/104pt pace)
W Robertson (22): 9gms, 5gls, 11pts (46gl/100pt pace)

C Shaw (31): 16gms, 6gls, 12pts (31gl/62pt pace)
W Bellows (25): 12gms, 6gls, 12pts (41gl/82pt pace)
W Tverberg (21): 5gms, 1gls, 4pts (16gl/66pt pace)

C Blandisi (29): 18gms, 4gls, 11pts (18gl/50pt pace)
W Abruzzese (24): 19gms, 3gls, 14pts (13gl/60pt pace)
W Ovchinnikov (21): 12gms, 6gls, 7pts (41gl/48pt pace)

C Gambrell (28): 19gms, 2gls, 10pts (9gl/43pt pace)
W McMann (27): 6gms, 2gls, 3pts (27gl/41pt pace)
W Ellis (23): 17gms, 1gls, 7pts (5gl/34pt pace)

C Slavin (25): 18gms, 2gls, 6pts (9gl/27pt pace)
W Clifford (32): 13gms, 2gls, 5pts (13gl/32pt pace)
W Solow (25): 14gms, 1gls, 4pts (6gl/23pt pace)

C Suthers (25): 6gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/14pt pace) --- ECHL: 3gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/27pt pace)
W Mastrosimone (22): 13gms, 1gls, 2pts (6gl/13pt pace)
W Singleton (25): 1gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace) --- ECHL: 19gms, 7gls, 16pts (30gl/69pt pace)

C Hirvonen (21): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
W Voit (20): 0gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace) --- ECHL: 2gms, 0gls, 4pts (0gl/164pt pace)


D Niemela (21): 17gms, 2gls, 12pts (10gl/58pt pace)
D Villeneuve (21): 16gms, 0gls, 6pts (0gl/31pt pace)

D Lajoie (26): 14gms, 0gls, 5pts (0gl/29pt pace)
D Rifai (25): 15gms, 0gls, 5pts (0gl/27pt pace)

D Miller (24): 17gms, 1gls, 4pts (5gl/19pt pace)
D Lagesson (28): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/16pt pace)

D Pietroniro (25): 14gms, 0gls, 2pts (0gl/12pt pace)
D Kokkonen (22): 16gms, 1gls, 2pts (5gl/10pt pace)

D Benoit (25): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
D Farrance (24): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)


G Hildeby (22): 13gms, .935
G Petruzzelli (24): 7gms, .874
G Jones (33): 5gms, .870

G Cavallin (22): 0gms, .000 --- (ECHL: 10gms, .910)
G Peksa (21): 0gms, .000 --- (ECHL: 3gms, .833




CHL

C Minten (19): 11gms, 4gls, 13pts (30gl/97pt pace)
W Cowan (18): 21gms, 10gls, 34pts (39gl/133pt pace)
W Lisowsky (19): 28gms, 16gls, 31pts (47gl/91pt pace)

D Chadwick (18): 25gms, 6gls, 20pts (20gl/66pt pace)

KHL

W Grebyonkin (20): 38gms, 8gls, 16pts (17gl/35pt pace)

G Akhtyamov (22): 17gms, .921sv% (VHL 3gms, .933)

NCAA

C Malinoski (19): 15gms, 5gls, 8pts (27gl/44pt pace)
W Moldenhauer (19): 18gms, 3gls, 9pts (14gl/41pt pace)

C MIller (21): 9gms, 3gls, 5pts (27gl/46pt pace)
W Miettenin (22): 14gms, 10gls, 14pts (59gl/82pt pace)
W Schingoethe (21): 6gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/14pt pace)

D Fusco (20): 9gms, 3gls, 4pts (27gl/36pt pace)
D Koster (22): 10gms, 0gls, 4pts (0gl/33pt pace)
 
MindzEye said:
November update:

1) Knies
2) Robertson
3) Cowan
4) Minten
5) Niemela

I definitely have the urge to shuffle this group around with Cowan showing sexy, sexy upside with elite skating/edges in his D+1 season. There's real #1 centre possibility there, Robbie looking too good for the AHL and Knies struggling a bit in his first extended run of play in the show but I'm going to resist that for now. The nerdies liked Minty's cup of coffee better than fathead did, would have been nice to see him get his full 9 games. To my eye test the offensive skills looked a bit limited but the IQ & physical package looked legit as a middle 6 centre. Super young though, so could grow into more offense. Niemela has adapted about as well to the AHL as we could have hoped, especially after a wonky camp where he looked overwhelmed. He looks every bit the modern, well rounded puck moving defender prospect to me so far.

6) Grebyonkin
7) Hildeby
8) Ahktyamov
9) Voit
10) Holmberg

I'm starting to get "Kulemin" vibes off of Grebyonkin. Every few weeks I see a video out of Russia of him making a play using a really nice size/skill/speed combo but every time I check his KHL stats he's in the same .5-.6ppg range. Turns 21 later this season and his KHL contract is up at the end of the year, so I'm going to remain hopeful here but I'm not seeing the type of explosion into top tier prospect status that it looked like might be happening when he finally started getting playing time last season. The package is still very intriguing though. I've moved the goalies ahead of Ty Voit, who hasn't played yet this year because their play warrants it. Hildeby might be in the middle of taking the Marlies starting job and running with it, Ahky is putting up strong KHL numbers for his age and appears to have stolen the starters job for Ak Bars. Holmberg was always pretty limited, but I don't think playing him on a 4th line with pluggers is going to get the best out of him. He looks like a guy with enough skill/IQ to compliment better players, I don't know if he's a guy you want on a checking line and expecting him to make shit happen. Disappointing so far regardless though. Was hoping for more to his game.

11) Villeneuve
12) Chadwick
13) Moldenhauer
14) Hirvonen
15) Peksa
16) Kokkonen
17) Steeves

Chadwick & Villeneuve earn the move up here, but almost by default. Moldy off to a slow start for Michigan, Hirvonen not cracking the Marlies lineup yet. Hirvonen feels like a kid we should include in trade somewhere based on his pedigree and the fact that scouts has always loved him. Wouldn't hurt seeing what he is at the AHL level, but if there was any value out there for him (Calgary, if you're listening...), I wouldn't hesitate. Peksa struggling so far in limited reps in Newfoundland. I've moved Kokkonen up to this group....he sure looks like a NHL defender of some type. Also, every time I want to write Steeves off I remember that he's 23 and continues to produce in the AHL. He'll have to find more to his game but it's hard to write off a guy who has scored at a ~30 goal pace the last 2+ seasons in the AHL and has started hot enough 2 years in a row to suggest that maybe more is there.

18) Lisowski
19) Miller
20) Malinoski
21) Tverberg
22) Miettenen

Tverberg and Miettenen doing just enough to be worth considering prospects.

Also, just to explain the rough tiers I personally stack them in. Probably going to revise and borrow the old Hockey Boards grading system going forward as well.

- "Impact" prospects. Players who have the reasonable potential to be top performers for us. That can come in a few different shapes and sizes but generally guys who fit into your top 6 forwards, top 3 defence, and starter or 1A goalie roles with the reasonable possibility of them making it. Guys who you don't have to squint very hard to see them making a positive difference on the NHL roster.

- Second tier is a bit of a mish mash of guys with high upside/low likelihood of reaching that (Greby has an outside shot at being a 1st line winger calibre player imo, Hildy & Akhy have starter potential but goalies are goalies) and lower upside guys (but still very much useful in the NHL) with a higher chance of reaching that (like Holmberg and previously imo Hirvonen) but who look like low tier NHL'ers at the worst.

- Third tier are career professionals who have a shot at NHL careers of some type or another. Some might have enough skill to carve out a role in the show eventually (think Bunting type progressions) and some will peak as your classic bottom pairing, bottom line roster filler of various quality and specialities.

- Fourth is unknown unknowns. Guys who are unlikely to become anything ever but are just interesting enough to keep an eye on because weird shit happens between the ages of 18-23.
Click to expand...


December edition. A bit more information to go off of now, so some movement is starting.

1) Robertson
2) Knies
3) Cowan
4) Niemela
5) Minten
6) Hildeby

Yep. Robbie retakes his spot on my rankings to the surprise of absolutely everyone everywhere. Seriously though, he's been a good addition to the big club and has added some offensive punch to the 3rd line, with some underlying numbers (P/60, ixG, etc) that challenge the big boys and suggest there's high end skill and production there. Yep, still has to do it over a full season without dying but the ceiling is too high and it's starting to look too plausible that he gets there for me to not have him at the #1 until I retire him from the prospect list altogether in a few months. Knies has done nothing wrong, he's looked good as a 21 yr old rookie, I just see too much difference between his ceiling and Robbie's.

Niemela has had about as encouraging a start to his 21 yr old AHL season as we could have expected and Minten looks limited to middle 6 centre. 1.18ppg in the WHL at 19 isn't exciting. I think we've seen enough from Hildeby to call the SHL performance what he is, and he's turned into a pretty clear high end goaltending prospect. Probably the best we've had since Reimer/Sparks. This one is 6'7 though.

7) Grebyonkin
8) Ahktyamov
9) Voit

Nothing changes here other than dropping Holmberg down a tier. He's okay. Want to see him playing a complimentary middle 6 role with some talent for an extended period before I write him off, but he's not exactly dominant at the AHL level at 24 yrs old. Akhy has pushed his way into a 1B role in the KHL and has been pretty good with a .921, but their starter is rocking a .935 so I don't expect a heavier workload. He's on hold until he comes over, and he's signed through 25/26. Greby has been pretty steady in that .4-.5ppg range to start the season, that's another guy who I don't think we'll know what he is until he comes over. His KHL contract ends at the end of this season though so we probably see him for a few weeks late in the Marlies season. Dunno about Voit until we see him in the AHL for an extended stretch

10) Steeves
11) Holmberg
12) Villeneuve
13) Chadwick
14) Moldenhauer
15) Hirvonen
16) Peksa
17) Kokkonen
18) Miettenen

Couldn't justify keeping Steeves that far down with how he's started the season. 23, so the time for him to look like a NHL player is now, but if you were looking for a late bloomer in your organization, this is the type of production they would put up at 23. Leaving Pontus this high for now as no one else looks close to the NHL. Everyone else there is 2 years away from being 2 years away if they ever make it and no one is screaming high upside at the moment out of the Moldenhauer's, Villeneuve's, Chadwick's, etc. Guys we've barely seen like Peksa or Hirvonen in a bit of a holding pattern. Moved Miettenen up and he'll stay up if the goal scoring continues. He's always been noted as a guy who could shoot the puck. There's a fairly well worn path towards being a decent NHL player for guys who figured shit out late in their NCAA career.

19) Tverberg
20) Miller
21) Malinoski
22) Lisowski

Dropped Lisowski to the bottom, barely looks like a prospect .
 
hockeylover said:
I don't think it'd be wrong to suggest Cowan is a better prospect than Knies though I get why that's the ranking for now.
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nrBPlD7.gif
 
MindzEye said:
December edition. A bit more information to go off of now, so some movement is starting.

1) Robertson
2) Knies
3) Cowan
4) Niemela
5) Minten
6) Hildeby

Yep. Robbie retakes his spot on my rankings to the surprise of absolutely everyone everywhere. Seriously though, he's been a good addition to the big club and has added some offensive punch to the 3rd line, with some underlying numbers (P/60, ixG, etc) that challenge the big boys and suggest there's high end skill and production there. Yep, still has to do it over a full season without dying but the ceiling is too high and it's starting to look too plausible that he gets there for me to not have him at the #1 until I retire him from the prospect list altogether in a few months. Knies has done nothing wrong, he's looked good as a 21 yr old rookie, I just see too much difference between his ceiling and Robbie's.

Niemela has had about as encouraging a start to his 21 yr old AHL season as we could have expected and Minten looks limited to middle 6 centre. 1.18ppg in the WHL at 19 isn't exciting. I think we've seen enough from Hildeby to call the SHL performance what he is, and he's turned into a pretty clear high end goaltending prospect. Probably the best we've had since Reimer/Sparks. This one is 6'7 though.

7) Grebyonkin
8) Ahktyamov
9) Voit

Nothing changes here other than dropping Holmberg down a tier. He's okay. Want to see him playing a complimentary middle 6 role with some talent for an extended period before I write him off, but he's not exactly dominant at the AHL level at 24 yrs old. Akhy has pushed his way into a 1B role in the KHL and has been pretty good with a .921, but their starter is rocking a .935 so I don't expect a heavier workload. He's on hold until he comes over, and he's signed through 25/26. Greby has been pretty steady in that .4-.5ppg range to start the season, that's another guy who I don't think we'll know what he is until he comes over. His KHL contract ends at the end of this season though so we probably see him for a few weeks late in the Marlies season. Dunno about Voit until we see him in the AHL for an extended stretch

10) Steeves
11) Holmberg
12) Villeneuve
13) Chadwick
14) Moldenhauer
15) Hirvonen
16) Peksa
17) Kokkonen
18) Miettenen

Couldn't justify keeping Steeves that far down with how he's started the season. 23, so the time for him to look like a NHL player is now, but if you were looking for a late bloomer in your organization, this is the type of production they would put up at 23. Leaving Pontus this high for now as no one else looks close to the NHL. Everyone else there is 2 years away from being 2 years away if they ever make it and no one is screaming high upside at the moment out of the Moldenhauer's, Villeneuve's, Chadwick's, etc. Guys we've barely seen like Peksa or Hirvonen in a bit of a holding pattern. Moved Miettenen up and he'll stay up if the goal scoring continues. He's always been noted as a guy who could shoot the puck. There's a fairly well worn path towards being a decent NHL player for guys who figured shit out late in their NCAA career.

19) Tverberg
20) Miller
21) Malinoski
22) Lisowski

Dropped Lisowski to the bottom, barely looks like a prospect .
Click to expand...
tvBYIjD.gif
 
Tier 1 Robby Knies Cowan
Tier 2 Minten Niemela Grebyonkin

In Tier 1 or 2 i'm not sure: Hildeby
 
hockeylover said:
I don't think it'd be wrong to suggest Cowan is a better prospect than Knies though I get why that's the ranking for now.
Click to expand...

Proximity to the league is the only reason I have him ahead....because, well...he's in the league and probably for good. Cowan has the higher ceiling though, definitely.
 
zeke said:
I think the top 3 are a cut above the rest there. Hildeby might be the closest to joining them but he's a goalie so.
Click to expand...

They are, but I'd argue that Niemela has legit top 3 potential, Minten still looks like he could be a nerdies god 2C with okay just okay offensive production, and Hildeby looks like a 1-1A type upside, so all would fit my definition of belonging in the top category. I mean, is Minten less advanced at 19 than Knies was? When correcting for league, their production is pretty similar.
 
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