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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

axlsalinger said:
Interesting analysis, don't really disagree with much but I will say that at the time of the draft, Owen Chadwick Pickering was considered a guy who would develop slowly but has a lot of upside. Maybe it's fair to say the production isn't there yet so he should be taken down a notch, but it should be noted that a guy that big will likely take longer to develop, and that skating ability suggests he still has a chance at that upside. He's also a year younger, so it's not offside to have him right there with Niemela on your list.
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A long time since the draft though. His D+2 year is actually a step back from his D+1 season, which is a glowing red flag that rarely ends well. He also got a AHL cup of coffee at the end of last year where he got slaughtered. Now, a 19 yr old defender getting mollywhopped in a AHL cup of coffee isn't necessarily a terrible thing, but I vividly remember us all being assured that Lilly only being a good #4-5 defender in full AHL seasons at the same age was terrible for him as a prospect. At the end of the day, Pickering is 20 yrs old now and not dominating junior hockey. Development paths can differ, but they rarely include taking a step back at a relatively easy level of play.

Fwiw, at the same age Niemela was putting up historic production for a 19 yr old in a top european league.
 
Preston said:
Wheeler does this thing where he tries to act like the smartest person in the room doing his evaluations. Everyone can read statistics, he feels the need to justify himself and his job by taking it a step further and coming up with absurd evaluations on players toolkits. I'm not just saying this because Liljegren or Cowan are Leafs.. He's been very wrong about a lot of players whenever he has attempted to galaxy brain some shit.
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Yeah I’ll never forget when wheeler said Mitch Marner was an average skater and that Auston Matthews had a wonky release.
 
mbow30 said:
Yeah I’ll never forget when wheeler said Mitch Marner was an average skater and that Auston Matthews had a wonky release.
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Good thing I don't work for the Athletic!

PS: The wonky release is what destroyed his wrist. He changed his technique to a much more sustainable one since the surgery. That old form was brutal on his wrists; it hurt mine just watching him shoot. Open your eyes folks! The Marner thing was a world class troll.
 
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MindzEye said:
That Button list fascinates me

Hilarious:
- Calum Ritchie at 6
- Willander at 9
- 2 short goalies in the top 20, with a 21 yr old goalie at 19 with kind of shit AHL numbers 2 years in a row.
- Jiricek at 21st? wtf....
- Cowan at 37, he should be in the teens and is a better prospect than Calum Ritchie at 6 ffs.


Also a general observation on NCAA stats. Either this incoming group of NCAA prospects are a massive wave of American talent that are taking over the world, or NCAA stats are in a period of inflation compared to previous generations and aren't useful for age relative comparison. Gauthier, Smith, Leonard, Hutson, McGroarty, Perreault are all putting up eye watering NCAA numbers. Fantilli and Cooley did the same last season and have been meh 19 yr old rookies.
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NCAA stats have always been pure garbage, and are just apparently moreso now.
 
Preston said:
I struggle with prospects that are 3C's as a best case scenario. At least if you've got top 6 upside, if you miss on your true potential/upside there's a chance you can be a nice 3rd liner. If Minten misses, he's a dime a dozen 4th liner or worse.

But I do think his odds of realizing that 3C potential aren't half bad. So he definitely has value.
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Why are we so sure he doesn't have 2C upside? Asking honestly.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
NCAA stats have always been pure garbage, and are just apparently moreso now.
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NCAA stats are strong indicators of future production. They've just become a bit inflated this season unless as mentioned, this group of kids coming through now is really, really good which is a possibility.
 
Sure, but I thought he looked pretty good in his short glimpse with us. Feel like 3C is the floor and maybe a true 2C isn't in the cards, but if we were to subdivide that category into 2CA and 2CB, I think he's definitely got 2CB potential if playing with good talent on his wings.

Basically a better, bigger, smarter Domi.
 
Preston said:
Good thing I don't work for the Athletic!

PS: The wonky release is what destroyed his wrist. He changed his technique to a much more sustainable one since the surgery. That old form was brutal on his wrists; it hurt mine just watching him shoot. Open your eyes folks! The Marner thing was a world class troll.
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back to opining about things within your areas of expertise again I see, Dr. presto
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Sure, but I thought he looked pretty good in his short glimpse with us. Feel like 3C is the floor and maybe a true 2C isn't in the cards, but if we were to subdivide that category into 2CA and 2CB, I think he's definitely got 2CB potential if playing with good talent on his wings.

Basically a better, bigger, smarter Domi.
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doubt he is ever as proficient offensively than Domi. but should be a helluva lot better defensively.
 
LeafOfFaith said:
Sure, but I thought he looked pretty good in his short glimpse with us.
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Looking good sells jeans, that's kind of it. Fwiw, I think he looked "fine" but just fine. We could sit here all day arguing about who's right (try me, pussy). Seriously though, his production in junior doesn't really lie. There's examples of weirdos like Hyman who just keep getting better their entire careers, but those are rare as fuck. Could Minten show enough offence to end up as a good NHL 2C? Sure, why not. But then we have to ask why he's not dominating the WHL as a 19 yr old like what other 2C's have done.

Fwiw, here's what he looks like next to the aforementioned Maximus Decimus Domi

D+1
Domi: 1.53
Minten: 1.18

D+2
Domi: 1.79
Minten: 1.25

And inB4 "but Marner". Mitch was 16 in that Domi's D+1 season and Domi led that team in scoring, 34 more points than Mitch. The following 1.79ppg season was on a rape train line with Uber Mitch and Christian Dvorak, so disregard that ridiculousness if you want. Domi was just a much, much better offensive junior aged player than Minten is, and we see how okay just okay he is an offensive minded 2C at the NHL level.
 
It's just about assigning probabilities which is all we can do really unless we're experts at evaluating a players stride. And based on historical precedent in the numbers, I think that MEs evaluation of Minten having 3rd line upside is most likely to be correct. Outliers will always exist across all walks of life and we should obviously cheer for an outlier with Minten. It would be great if he were one. But I'd manage expectations with a player like him.
 
Fair enough. I don't disagree with what the trajectory probably looks like, but just feel based purely on eye test (not just his stint with us, but also video of him in juniors this season) that there might be something more there.
 
AHL

C Holmberg (24): 11gms, 6gls, 10pts (45gl/75pt pace)
W Robertson (22): 9gms, 5gls, 11pts (46gl/100pt pace)
W McMann (27): 6gms, 2gls, 3pts (27gl/41pt pace)

C Shaw (31): 46gms, 20gls, 37pts (36gl/66pt pace)
W Steeves (24): 43gms, 19gls, 42pts (36gl/80pt pace)
W Blandisi (29): 48gms, 18gls, 45pts (31gl/77pt pace)

C Tverberg (21): 34gms, 8gls, 27pts (19gl/65pt pace)
W Bellows (25): 42gms, 21gls, 37pts (41gl/72pt pace)
W Abruzzese (24): 49gms, 9gls, 35pts (15gl/59pt pace)

C Gambrell (28): 47gms, 9gls, 25pts (16gl/44pt pace)
W Clifford (32): 39gms, 8gls, 20pts (17gl/42pt pace)
W Ovchinnikov (21): 20gms, 7gls, 10pts (29gl/41pt pace)

C Slavin (25): 48gms, 7gls, 18pts (12gl/31pt pace)
W Ellis (23): 32gms, 3gls, 13pts (8gl/33pt pace)
W Solow (25): 44gms, 7gls, 16pts (13gl/30pt pace)

C Hirvonen (21): 14gms, 1gls, 5pts (6gl/29pt pace)
W Mastrosimone (22): 37gms, 4gls, 12pts (9gl/27pt pace)
W Voit (20): 1gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace) ---- ECHL 5gms, 2gls, 8pts (33gl/131pt pace)


D Benoit (25): 2gms, 0gls, 0pts (0gl/0pt pace)
D Lagesson (28): 5gms, 0gls, 1pts (0gl/16pt pace)

D Niemela (21): 47gms, 6gls, 28pts (11gl/49pt pace)
D Villeneuve (21): 38gms, 2gls, 21pts (4gl/45pt pace)

D Lajoie (26): 31gms, 2gls, 17pts (5gl/45pt pace)
D Rifai (25): 35gms, 2gls, 11pts (5gl/26pt pace)

D Kokkonen (22): 44gms, 3gls, 11pts (6gl/21pt pace)
D Gaunce (33): 24gms, 0gls, 5pts (0gl/17pt pace)

D Pietroniro (25): 23gms, 1gls, 3pts (4gl/11pt pace)
D Miller (24): 44gms, 1gls, 5pts (2gl/9pt pace)


G Woll (25): 1gms, .973
G Jones (33): 5gms, .870

G Hildeby (22): 26gms, .915
G Petruzzelli (24): 16gms, .868

G Cavallin (22): 4gms, .875 --- ECHL: 24gms, .915
G Peksa (21): 0gms, .000 ---- ECHL: 14gms, .898



CHL

C Minten (19): 32gms, 18gls, 40pts (46gl/103pt pace) ------ WJC 5gms, 1gls, 3pts (16gl/49pt pace)
W Cowan (18): 44gms, 29gls, 77pts (54gl/144pt pace) ---- WJC 5gms, 1gls, 2pts (16gl/33pt pace)
W Lisowsky (19): 57gms, 33gls, 67pts (48gl/96pt pace)

D Chadwick (18): 55gms, 11gls, 46pts (16gl/69pt pace)

KHL

W Grebyonkin (20): 67gms, 19gls, 41pts (23gl/50pt pace)

G Akhtyamov (22): 17gms, .921 ----- VHL 21gms, .930

NCAA

C Malinoski (19): 30gms, 7gls, 15pts (19gl/41pt pace)
W Moldenhauer (19): 32gms, 7gls, 19pts (18gl/49pt pace)

C MIller (21): 27gms, 11gls, 22pts (33gl/67pt pace)
W Miettenin (22): 29gms, 14gls, 26pts (40gl/74pt pace)
W Schingoethe (21): 20gms, 0gls, 4pts (0gl/16pt pace)

D Koster (22): 26gms, 2gls, 11pts (6gl/35pt pace)
D Fusco (20): 27gms, 4gls, 10pts (12gl/30pt pace)
 
Wanted to drill down on that Boone Jenner upside thing by looking at current middle 6 type centres who played in the CHL, here's the D+1 production (which is imo way more important for determining upside than D+2 which is mostly useless aside from tracking progress).

Strome: 1.98
McMichael: 1.92
Schenn: 1.68
Cozens: 1.67
Kadri: 1.66
Domi: 1.53
Johansen: 1.46
Nicolas Roy: 1.43
Pageau: 1.39
Trochek: 1.31
McLeod: 1.28
Zacha: 1.25
Ryan McLeod: 1.19
Minten: 1.18
Dickinson: 1.15
Danault: 1.15
Pierre Luc Dubois: 1.15
Jenner: 1.14
Laughton: 1.14
Lowry: 1.03
Stephenson: .98
Cirelli: .95

Yeah, the guys who went on to be perennial 2C types all put up big numbers. PLD is the only real outlier among that bottom end group and he's had his issues (also his Q scoring was goofy, clearly was shit before the trade and his totals jumped a bunch after).

It's Danault, Jenner, and Laughton that make a lot of sense to me as reasonable upside for Minten.
 
I mean, if we know he'd legit grow into a Danault clone, Minty would be an untouchable for me.

No idea if he has that kind of defensive ability though.
 
Even Danault though, made the show at 23 yrs old. 4 years from now for Minten. So even if Minten is best case scenario like that, he's not arriving until Matthews is 30, Mitch 30, Nylander 31, Rielly 33. You just can't get attached to complimentary prospects like that when you're very much in win now mode. The time to be patient with picks and prospects was ironically enough when Dubas wasn't. Cowan would be smart to keep, there's top 6 centre upside in there and those guys tend to hit the league pretty young (all of that upper tier were playing in the middle of the lineup by 20-22 yrs old other than McMichael). Also a much harder/more expensive player type to find if you trade one away.
 
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