LeafGm
Well-known member
Most of the prospect media will jerk off about a guys skating stride but will entirely avoid discussion about age relative production.
That kind of prospect coverage is Wheeler’s specialty.
Most of the prospect media will jerk off about a guys skating stride but will entirely avoid discussion about age relative production.
I mean Cowen, Minten, Grebyonkin, Niemela, Hildeby is a flat out good top-5...and all very close to nhl ready to. And then the system has solid depth to it as well.
View: https://x.com/brigstew86/status/1762176761024954789?s=20
so about a 25/50 pace for his 20yr old KHL season.
hope they try to bring him here right after the playoffs.
and I think if you did that kind of comp against any of the other teams ranked around #28 it would come out looking pretty hilarious.
I feel like Mindz underrates Minty.
Speaking of Button - this is his list.
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Cutter Gauthier, Alexander Nikishin lead Craig Button’s top 50 NHL-affiliated prospects list | TSN
Cutter Gauthier was in the midst of some controversy this season, but there's nothing controversial about Craig Button ranking him at No. 1.www.tsn.ca
16. Hutson
30. Roy
33. Reinbacher
37. Cowan
38. Mailloux
I struggle with prospects that are 3C's as a best case scenario. At least if you've got top 6 upside, if you miss on your true potential/upside there's a chance you can be a nice 3rd liner. If Minten misses, he's a dime a dozen 4th liner or worse.
But I do think his odds of realizing that 3C potential aren't half bad. So he definitely has value.
dude the dutch are built like tanks.It's basically malpractice on Wheelers's part tbh. Fwiw, he has the Habs ranked 10th so it would probably be interesting to compare our top 10 vs theirs (according to Wheeler).
Habs:
1) Lane Hutson
2) Reinbacher
3) Jacob Fowler
4) Joshua Roy
5) Logan Mailloux
6) Justin Barron
7) Owen Beck
8) Jayden Struble
9) Filip Mesar
10) Sean Farrell
Leafs:
1) Cowan
2) Hildeby
3) Niemela
4) Minten
5) Ahktyamov
6) Hirvonen
7) Grebyonkin
8) Moldenhauer
9) Tverberg
10) Kokkonen
The first thing I notice is that his Leafs top 10 isn't great. Not terrible mind you, but not great either. But I'm going to assume that his Habs list has as many problems as his Leafs list. I'm more interested in comparing the lists than I am in picking them apart.
He's kind enough to add tier groupings to his list, and they look like this in the top 10.
View attachment 19568
View attachment 19569
So I'm going to infer based on the fact that he's ranked the Habs 10th and created an additional top tier for their prospects that he didn't for ours, that he considers Hutson and Reinbacher to be a tier above Easton Cowan. That's fucking insane.
Hutson is a lovely prospect with size issues (allegedly up to 5'10 now) and his NCAA production is fantastic. I wouldn't argue too much with someone who ranked Hutson above Cowan on their personal prospect list. He looks at minimum to be a pending elite PP1 quarterback and will move the puck so well that his defensive warts will be mostly a wash as long as he's sheltered 5v5 (not dissimilar from Rielly in that sense if you want a Leaf comparison). Will 100% struggle with board battles, defending the front of the net, etc. He's built like a 12 yr old dutch girl.
But where Wheeler loses the plot here imo is ranking Reinbacher in the same tier. He's just not and he's not really that close. Pretty big step back offensively this season. His 19 yr old season in Switzerland is a step down from Niemela's 19 yr old season in Finland for example. Not that I would rank Niemela ahead of him (Reinbacher has a higher floor, especially at 5v5, definitely). But in no way is he a better prospect than Easton Cowan. At the absolute minimum, Cowan belongs in a tier with them if we were mashing the two groups together.
Comparing the rest of that tier against the Habs 2nd tier is also pretty interesting. The two groups are pretty comparable with an edge but just an edge to the Habs group. Roy & Minten are probably a wash. Minten's floor is way higher, ceiling not as high. Mailloux over Niemela. Mailloux is bigger and younger with more obvious tools, but is also a shitty decision maker on and off the ice. Niemela the opposite, high IQ, grasps the concept of sexual consent, etc but it's impossible to ignore how good a 20 yr old AHL rookie season Logan's had when comparing them. Hildeby over Fowler though. Fowler has put up a solid NCAA rookie season, but his SV% comparables are all 6'3-6'4+. It's just hard to be a starting goalie at 6'1. Hildeby being more advanced, 6'7, and on the cusp of making the league at 22 has to put him ahead imo.
All in all, I would take the Habs group over the Leaf group, but if I was smashing them together and ranking the top 2 tiers I think it looks like this:
1) Hutson
2) Cowan
3) Reinbacher
4) Mailloux
5) Niemela
6) Hildeby
7) Fowler
8/9) Roy/Minten pick'em
The top of the system should take about like 80-90% of the oxygen when it comes to ranking them, and there's nowhere near enough to daylight between those two groups to justify one being 10th and the other being 28th...and I don't think the problem is with the Habs ranking. Wheeler should be embarrassed.
He's been spamming nonsense about Liljegren's stride making it impossible for him to ever be a top 4 D. The guy is absolutely brutal at his job. There have been way worse skaters around the league that held a top 4 job consistently for years.That kind of prospect coverage is Wheeler’s specialty.
dude the dutch are built like tanks.
He's been spamming nonsense about Liljegren's stride making it impossible for him to ever be a top 4 D. The guy is absolutely brutal at his job. There have been way worse skaters around the league that held a top 4 job consistently for years.
Interesting analysis, don't really disagree with much but I will say that at the time of the draft, OwenPittsburgh's #2, Owen Chadwick is 20 yrs old (19 yr old season though, recently turned 20). .74ppg is a solid enough, especially for a lanky 6'3 defender who projects to have good NHL size. On the other side of the ledger though I'd like to skip our top 10 entirely and introduce Mr Wheeler to Noah Chadwick, who plays in the same fucking league, is a year younger, inch taller and 20+ pounds heavier with a .84ppg. Shit, half of Wheeler's write up is on how mid Pickering's game is, but he jerks off about the skating. Wheeler does a write up on Chadwick, raves about his game but calls him a AHL defender because of his skating. Which is cool, Chadwick, like any 6th round pick is a longshot to make the show. But the fact that he's outplaying Pittsburghs #2 ranked prospect in the same league while being a year younger says some shit here. It's not even worth comparing Pickering with Niemela. Pickering would struggle to make our top 10 imo.
Overall his eye test on what is vs what isn't an effective skating stride is fucking terrible. He makes a meal about Cowan being "hunched over" when assessing Cowan's skating.
Watch Cowan skate:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmmqBb7HKIA
and then watch OHL Mitch skate
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlAWhcKmOfU
and tell me there's much of any difference in stride....Mitchy better on his (ridiculously elite) edges is the main difference.