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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

zeke said:
I mean Cowen, Minten, Grebyonkin, Niemela, Hildeby is a flat out good top-5...and all very close to nhl ready to. And then the system has solid depth to it as well.
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It's basically malpractice on Wheelers's part tbh. Fwiw, he has the Habs ranked 10th so it would probably be interesting to compare our top 10 vs theirs (according to Wheeler).

Habs:
1) Lane Hutson
2) Reinbacher
3) Jacob Fowler
4) Joshua Roy
5) Logan Mailloux
6) Justin Barron
7) Owen Beck
8) Jayden Struble
9) Filip Mesar
10) Sean Farrell


Leafs:
1) Cowan
2) Hildeby
3) Niemela
4) Minten
5) Ahktyamov
6) Hirvonen
7) Grebyonkin
8) Moldenhauer
9) Tverberg
10) Kokkonen

The first thing I notice is that his Leafs top 10 isn't great. Not terrible mind you, but not great either. But I'm going to assume that his Habs list has as many problems as his Leafs list. I'm more interested in comparing the lists than I am in picking them apart.

He's kind enough to add tier groupings to his list, and they look like this in the top 10.

1708968804174.png

1708968824848.png

So I'm going to infer based on the fact that he's ranked the Habs 10th and created an additional top tier for their prospects that he didn't for ours, that he considers Hutson and Reinbacher to be a tier above Easton Cowan. That's fucking insane.

Hutson is a lovely prospect with size issues (allegedly up to 5'10 now) and his NCAA production is fantastic. I wouldn't argue too much with someone who ranked Hutson above Cowan on their personal prospect list. He looks at minimum to be a pending elite PP1 quarterback and will move the puck so well that his defensive warts will be mostly a wash as long as he's sheltered 5v5 (not dissimilar from Rielly in that sense if you want a Leaf comparison). Will 100% struggle with board battles, defending the front of the net, etc. He's built like a 12 yr old dutch girl.

But where Wheeler loses the plot here imo is ranking Reinbacher in the same tier. He's just not and he's not really that close. Pretty big step back offensively this season. His 19 yr old season in Switzerland is a step down from Niemela's 19 yr old season in Finland for example. Not that I would rank Niemela ahead of him (Reinbacher has a higher floor, especially at 5v5, definitely). But in no way is he a better prospect than Easton Cowan. At the absolute minimum, Cowan belongs in a tier with them if we were mashing the two groups together.

Comparing the rest of that tier against the Habs 2nd tier is also pretty interesting. The two groups are pretty comparable with an edge but just an edge to the Habs group. Roy & Minten are probably a wash. Minten's floor is way higher, ceiling not as high. Mailloux over Niemela. Mailloux is bigger and younger with more obvious tools, but is also a shitty decision maker on and off the ice. Niemela the opposite, high IQ, grasps the concept of sexual consent, etc but it's impossible to ignore how good a 20 yr old AHL rookie season Logan's had when comparing them. Hildeby over Fowler though. Fowler has put up a solid NCAA rookie season, but his SV% comparables are all 6'3-6'4+. It's just hard to be a starting goalie at 6'1. Hildeby being more advanced, 6'7, and on the cusp of making the league at 22 has to put him ahead imo.

All in all, I would take the Habs group over the Leaf group, but if I was smashing them together and ranking the top 2 tiers I think it looks like this:

1) Hutson
2) Cowan
3) Reinbacher
4) Mailloux
5) Niemela
6) Hildeby
7) Fowler
8/9) Roy/Minten pick'em

The top of the system should take about like 80-90% of the oxygen when it comes to ranking them, and there's nowhere near enough to daylight between those two groups to justify one being 10th and the other being 28th...and I don't think the problem is with the Habs ranking. Wheeler should be embarrassed.
 
zeke said:

View: https://x.com/brigstew86/status/1762176761024954789?s=20

so about a 25/50 pace for his 20yr old KHL season.

hope they try to bring him here right after the playoffs.
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Fwiw, his closest 20-22 yr old NHL comparables (Greby is 20). I'll put (21) or (22) next to guys a year older at the time:

PPG

Sharangovich: .74 (22)
Marchenko: .68
Nicushkin: .67 (21)
Panarin: .64
Buchnevich: .64
Greby: .62
Tolvanen: .52 (21)
Kuzmenko: .44

Yeah, would be really nice to see him in the AHL this season. If he's already AHL good (.8ppg+) at 20 it would be hard to not include him in any discussion about the Leafs top 4-5 prospects as well.
 
zeke said:
and I think if you did that kind of comp against any of the other teams ranked around #28 it would come out looking pretty hilarious.
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Fuck, I'm bored this afternoon. Here's #27 and it belongs to our Fake Glasses wearing buddy, Kyle Dubas.

1708973146215.png

So he's got Brayden Yager in his own tier eh...must be pretty good

D+1 PPG
Yager: 1.50
Cowan: 1.75

Yager is also 5 months older which actually matters quite a bit at that age. Yager is obviously a nice prospect, but Cowan a significant chunk better.

Pittsburgh's #2, Owen Chadwick is 20 yrs old (19 yr old season though, recently turned 20). .74ppg is a solid enough, especially for a lanky 6'3 defender who projects to have good NHL size. On the other side of the ledger though I'd like to skip our top 10 entirely and introduce Mr Wheeler to Noah Chadwick, who plays in the same fucking league, is a year younger, inch taller and 20+ pounds heavier with a .84ppg. Shit, half of Wheeler's write up is on how mid Pickering's game is, but he jerks off about the skating. Wheeler does a write up on Chadwick, raves about his game but calls him a AHL defender because of his skating. Which is cool, Chadwick, like any 6th round pick is a longshot to make the show. But the fact that he's outplaying Pittsburghs #2 ranked prospect in the same league while being a year younger says some shit here. It's not even worth comparing Pickering with Niemela. Pickering would struggle to make our top 10 imo.

Blomqvist-Hildeby is an interesting comparison. Both Euros, both 22 years old, both AHL rookies this season. Blomqvist with a small edge in SV% this season, and both with similar Liiga/SHL track records. Not a lot of daylight between the two other than when they stand next to each other. Stopping pucks is stopping pucks, but I'll take the 6'7 prospect over the 6'2 prospect when everything else seems to be even.

Murashov is basically Akhtyamov or Peksa, but at 19 instead of 21-22. 2 years away from being 2 years away, and only 6'1. Samuel Poulin is a 23 yr old winger in the AHL with (significantly) lesser production and pedigree than Steeves and Holmberg. I don't think this guy would make my top 15 if he was a Leaf. Definitely way behind Tverberg's, Voit's, etc. Ilyin is interesting though, with production in line with what Greby has done, and a bit younger at the time he's doing it. Doesn't have Greby's physical projection but is at the same place Greby was when we started getting really intrigued by him. If he was a Leaf prospect I'd be arguing for having him knocking on the door of the top 10. In Pittsburgh's system he looks to be 3rd or 4th to me.

Yeah, I don't think I need to go any further. If I was doing the same mash up and ranking of just Wheeler's ranking (which I think are wonky from the onset, but this is more about trying to make his work consistent with itself and not arguing with him about prospect ranking)

1) Cowan
_______________
2) Yager
3) Niemela
4) Hildeby
________________
5) Minten
6) Blomqvist

I simply wouldn't include the other Pens prospects in this group. Despite what I said above about not wanting to get into a deeper dive on who he's ranking where. We simply have too many prospects simply better than Pickering that aren't included (Villeneuve and Chadwick are both better defensive prospects imo) and guys like Greby and Tverberg are just way more advanced than Ilyin.

The Leafs and Habs groups are far closer in quality and depth imo than the Leafs and Pens groups are.
 
hockeylover said:
Speaking of Button - this is his list.

www.tsn.ca

Cutter Gauthier, Alexander Nikishin lead Craig Button’s top 50 NHL-affiliated prospects list | TSN

Cutter Gauthier was in the midst of some controversy this season, but there's nothing controversial about Craig Button ranking him at No. 1.
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca

16. Hutson
30. Roy
33. Reinbacher
37. Cowan
38. Mailloux
Click to expand...

That makes me feel so much better about my assessment. I don't think I've seen someone be so consistently wrong than Button.
 
I struggle with prospects that are 3C's as a best case scenario. At least if you've got top 6 upside, if you miss on your true potential/upside there's a chance you can be a nice 3rd liner. If Minten misses, he's a dime a dozen 4th liner or worse.

But I do think his odds of realizing that 3C potential aren't half bad. So he definitely has value.
 
Preston said:
I struggle with prospects that are 3C's as a best case scenario. At least if you've got top 6 upside, if you miss on your true potential/upside there's a chance you can be a nice 3rd liner. If Minten misses, he's a dime a dozen 4th liner or worse.

But I do think his odds of realizing that 3C potential aren't half bad. So he definitely has value.
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I think this actually sums it up pretty well for me.
 
MindzEye said:
It's basically malpractice on Wheelers's part tbh. Fwiw, he has the Habs ranked 10th so it would probably be interesting to compare our top 10 vs theirs (according to Wheeler).

Habs:
1) Lane Hutson
2) Reinbacher
3) Jacob Fowler
4) Joshua Roy
5) Logan Mailloux
6) Justin Barron
7) Owen Beck
8) Jayden Struble
9) Filip Mesar
10) Sean Farrell


Leafs:
1) Cowan
2) Hildeby
3) Niemela
4) Minten
5) Ahktyamov
6) Hirvonen
7) Grebyonkin
8) Moldenhauer
9) Tverberg
10) Kokkonen

The first thing I notice is that his Leafs top 10 isn't great. Not terrible mind you, but not great either. But I'm going to assume that his Habs list has as many problems as his Leafs list. I'm more interested in comparing the lists than I am in picking them apart.

He's kind enough to add tier groupings to his list, and they look like this in the top 10.

View attachment 19568

View attachment 19569

So I'm going to infer based on the fact that he's ranked the Habs 10th and created an additional top tier for their prospects that he didn't for ours, that he considers Hutson and Reinbacher to be a tier above Easton Cowan. That's fucking insane.

Hutson is a lovely prospect with size issues (allegedly up to 5'10 now) and his NCAA production is fantastic. I wouldn't argue too much with someone who ranked Hutson above Cowan on their personal prospect list. He looks at minimum to be a pending elite PP1 quarterback and will move the puck so well that his defensive warts will be mostly a wash as long as he's sheltered 5v5 (not dissimilar from Rielly in that sense if you want a Leaf comparison). Will 100% struggle with board battles, defending the front of the net, etc. He's built like a 12 yr old dutch girl.

But where Wheeler loses the plot here imo is ranking Reinbacher in the same tier. He's just not and he's not really that close. Pretty big step back offensively this season. His 19 yr old season in Switzerland is a step down from Niemela's 19 yr old season in Finland for example. Not that I would rank Niemela ahead of him (Reinbacher has a higher floor, especially at 5v5, definitely). But in no way is he a better prospect than Easton Cowan. At the absolute minimum, Cowan belongs in a tier with them if we were mashing the two groups together.

Comparing the rest of that tier against the Habs 2nd tier is also pretty interesting. The two groups are pretty comparable with an edge but just an edge to the Habs group. Roy & Minten are probably a wash. Minten's floor is way higher, ceiling not as high. Mailloux over Niemela. Mailloux is bigger and younger with more obvious tools, but is also a shitty decision maker on and off the ice. Niemela the opposite, high IQ, grasps the concept of sexual consent, etc but it's impossible to ignore how good a 20 yr old AHL rookie season Logan's had when comparing them. Hildeby over Fowler though. Fowler has put up a solid NCAA rookie season, but his SV% comparables are all 6'3-6'4+. It's just hard to be a starting goalie at 6'1. Hildeby being more advanced, 6'7, and on the cusp of making the league at 22 has to put him ahead imo.

All in all, I would take the Habs group over the Leaf group, but if I was smashing them together and ranking the top 2 tiers I think it looks like this:

1) Hutson
2) Cowan
3) Reinbacher
4) Mailloux
5) Niemela
6) Hildeby
7) Fowler
8/9) Roy/Minten pick'em

The top of the system should take about like 80-90% of the oxygen when it comes to ranking them, and there's nowhere near enough to daylight between those two groups to justify one being 10th and the other being 28th...and I don't think the problem is with the Habs ranking. Wheeler should be embarrassed.
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dude the dutch are built like tanks.
 
LeafGm said:
That kind of prospect coverage is Wheeler’s specialty.
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He's been spamming nonsense about Liljegren's stride making it impossible for him to ever be a top 4 D. The guy is absolutely brutal at his job. There have been way worse skaters around the league that held a top 4 job consistently for years.
 
That Button list fascinates me

Hilarious:
- Calum Ritchie at 6
- Willander at 9
- 2 short goalies in the top 20, with a 21 yr old goalie at 19 with kind of shit AHL numbers 2 years in a row.
- Jiricek at 21st? wtf....
- Cowan at 37, he should be in the teens and is a better prospect than Calum Ritchie at 6 ffs.


Also a general observation on NCAA stats. Either this incoming group of NCAA prospects are a massive wave of American talent that are taking over the world, or NCAA stats are in a period of inflation compared to previous generations and aren't useful for age relative comparison. Gauthier, Smith, Leonard, Hutson, McGroarty, Perreault are all putting up eye watering NCAA numbers. Fantilli and Cooley did the same last season and have been meh 19 yr old rookies.
 
Preston said:
He's been spamming nonsense about Liljegren's stride making it impossible for him to ever be a top 4 D. The guy is absolutely brutal at his job. There have been way worse skaters around the league that held a top 4 job consistently for years.
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Overall his eye test on what is vs what isn't an effective skating stride is fucking terrible. He makes a meal about Cowan being "hunched over" when assessing Cowan's skating.

Watch Cowan skate:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmmqBb7HKIA

and then watch OHL Mitch skate


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlAWhcKmOfU

and tell me there's much of any difference in stride....Mitchy better on his (ridiculously elite) edges is the main difference.
 
MindzEye said:
Pittsburgh's #2, Owen Chadwick is 20 yrs old (19 yr old season though, recently turned 20). .74ppg is a solid enough, especially for a lanky 6'3 defender who projects to have good NHL size. On the other side of the ledger though I'd like to skip our top 10 entirely and introduce Mr Wheeler to Noah Chadwick, who plays in the same fucking league, is a year younger, inch taller and 20+ pounds heavier with a .84ppg. Shit, half of Wheeler's write up is on how mid Pickering's game is, but he jerks off about the skating. Wheeler does a write up on Chadwick, raves about his game but calls him a AHL defender because of his skating. Which is cool, Chadwick, like any 6th round pick is a longshot to make the show. But the fact that he's outplaying Pittsburghs #2 ranked prospect in the same league while being a year younger says some shit here. It's not even worth comparing Pickering with Niemela. Pickering would struggle to make our top 10 imo.
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Interesting analysis, don't really disagree with much but I will say that at the time of the draft, Owen Chadwick Pickering was considered a guy who would develop slowly but has a lot of upside. Maybe it's fair to say the production isn't there yet so he should be taken down a notch, but it should be noted that a guy that big will likely take longer to develop, and that skating ability suggests he still has a chance at that upside. He's also a year younger, so it's not offside to have him right there with Niemela on a list.
 
MindzEye said:
Overall his eye test on what is vs what isn't an effective skating stride is fucking terrible. He makes a meal about Cowan being "hunched over" when assessing Cowan's skating.

Watch Cowan skate:


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmmqBb7HKIA

and then watch OHL Mitch skate


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlAWhcKmOfU

and tell me there's much of any difference in stride....Mitchy better on his (ridiculously elite) edges is the main difference.
Click to expand...

Wheeler does this thing where he tries to act like the smartest person in the room doing his evaluations. Everyone can read statistics, he feels the need to justify himself and his job by taking it a step further and coming up with absurd evaluations on players toolkits. I'm not just saying this because Liljegren or Cowan are Leafs.. He's been very wrong about a lot of players whenever he has attempted to galaxy brain some shit.
 
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