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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

It all depends on what Minty would be traded for.

If it's an older rental expiring at the end of the season like Tanev, I wouldn't trade him for that. Use the 1st and other prospects (or don't, since I don't think we need it).

If it's for Hanifin and we extend him, that's worth it.
 
It all depends on what Minty would be traded for.

You aim for something like Hanifin tbh. Minty + 1st for an extended Hanifin is tidy business imo.

If it's an older rental expiring at the end of the season like Tanev

Eh, rumour is that we're not even offering up a 1st for Tanev, I don't think you have to worry about that. Nobody trades a good prospect for a 34 yr old expiring defender just because he can handle the heavies decently well.
 
One thing I'll say about Dubie is that I always expected he was trying consistently to land the biggest fish he could. I think he always set his sights high on the top 6, and fucked up completely on the bottom 6. If he were around, I'd fully expect to be in on Hanifin.

With Tre, I have no idea yet. He also aimed high in the offseason grabbing Bertuzzi, and arguably Klingberg. Since then, nothing to evaluate. Hope to be pleasantly surprised.
 
Right-handed defenders, playing top 4 minutes for bubble or non-playoffs teams.

Justin Faulk ($6.5 until 2027, age 31)
Artem Zub ($4.6 until 2027, age 28)
Rasmus Andersson ($4.55 until 2026, age 27)
Adam Larsson ($4.0 until 2025, age 31)
Sean Durzi ($1.7 2024 - arb eligible RFA, age 25) you'd be guaranteed at least one more year if arb is awarded
 
Net Ratings

Hanifin +9 (+7 off / +3 def)

Zub +6 (+4 off / +2 def)

Durzi +4 (+7 off / -3 def)
Tanev +3 (-2 off / +4 def)
Weegar +2 (+4 off / -2 def)
Larsson +1 (-1 off / +2 def)
Andersson +1 (+6 off / -5 def)
Faulk -1 (+4 off / -5 def)


Zub has always had very impressive numbers in a pretty big role on a fairly weak (though not awful) team by the numbers, and a positive both offensively and defensively. That would be a very smart get i think.

Durzi seems to be an all-offense zero-defense guy and I don't think he even gets the toughs.

Weegar and Andersson's numbers are both way down and simply not so good right now. I still believe in them but the numbers can't be ignored completely i don't think.

Larsson is probably a decent fit defensively, but not if he costs more than Tanev.
 
Because it's already been a topic, here's an update on Wheeler's list.


He's crowned the Buffalo Sabres as the top prospect pool in hockey. Which is fun, for reasons I'll get into. I'll split them into Wheeler's tiers as well

1) Zach Benson
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2) Matt Savoie
3) Jiri Kulich
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4) Devon Levi
5) Noah Ostlund
6) Isak Rosen
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7) Nikita Novikov
8) Ryan Johnson
9) Anton Wahlberg
10) Maxim Strbak

That's a nice list with handful of high quality prospects, but it brings up my first issue with Wheeler's list here. Who is and isn't a prospect is kind of fucking arbitrarty. Zach Benson (48 games played) and Ryan Johnson (37 games played) are prospects while Matthew Knies (59 games played), Nick Robertson (71 games), and Pontus Holmberg (69 games) aren't. So while obviously some sort of prospect criteria needs to be created and adhered to, Ryan Johnson is a few months older then Robertson and has played 3 fewer games this season than Robbie has. If Robbie is no longer a prospect, this guy isn't either.

So this kind of leads me to a bit of a thought experiment. What does our prospect list look like with Robertson & Knies involved (Holmberg turns 25 in like, a week...so I get leaving him out) and how would it compare to Wheeler's best group of prospects in the league. For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to rank our top 10 the way I would at the moment, not according to Wheeler's previous ranking. I'll do similar to above, but I'll split them into tiers as I see them.

1) Robertson
2) Knies
3) Cowan
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4) Niemela
5) Hildeby
6) Minten
7) Grebyonkin
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8) Tverberg
9) Villenueve
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10) Akhtyamov


- Comparing the Sabres two top tiers of Benson-Savoie-Kulich vs Robbie-Knies-Cowan is interesting. Robbie and Cowan both put up D+1 production higher than Benson & Savoie did in the CHL


Robertson: 1.89
Cowan:1.76
Benson: 1.63
Savoie: 1.42

and to be clear, they're all midgets. Cowan is easily the biggest of the 4 with easily the most projectable NHL frame if those things matter to you. Benson, Savoie, and our Robbie are all 5'9. This is a skill midget heavy comparison.

Kulich is a bit bigger but still skill midget-ish and is putting up a fantastic 19 yr old season in the AHL with .78ppg. The only red flag here is that he did almost the exact same thing as a 18 yr old last year with .74ppg. If we're comparing him to Knies there's probably more offensive upside here, but he's not going to be 6'3 220 with skill either, which is probably a more desirable player type than a 2C type prospect.

- The next tier comp would be Levi-Ostlund-Rosen v Niemela, Hildeby, Minten, Greby

I think a lot of this comparison is going to come down to how you view Levi. 22 yrs old, .924 sv% in the AHL. But very small for a starting goalie. Saros is really the only guy in the league doing anything of note at this size and by Levi's age was already a NHL backup/1B with a few years of .920+ experience. Ostlund & Rosen are putting up respectable but unspectacular 19-20 yr old seasons in good pro leagues:

(G) Levi D+3 (22 - AHL) .924
(C) Ostlund D+2 (19 - SHL) - .56ppg
(RW) Rosen D+3 (20 - AHL) - .64ppg

Our group:

(D) Niemela D+4 (21 - AHL) .58ppg
(G) Hildeby D+2 (22 - AHL) .912 sv
(C) Minten D+2 (19 - WHL) 1.21ppg
(RW) Greby D+2 (20 - KHL) .62ppg

Setting aside the goalies for a moment, it's hard to call anyone but Grebyonkin the best of that pile performance wise. The comparables for his performance in the KHL are just significantly more impressive than the similar looking offensive performances in the AHL & SHL. For example, Ostlund's best NHL comparables at that 19 yr old production level are Calle Jarnkrok, Anton Lander, and William Karlsson. A solid step down from the russians Greby has matched as a 20 yr old. Rosen's 20 yr old comparables at that scoring level as mostly 4th liners (Jamie McGinn, Paquette, Geekie, Glendening) or AAAA players like Alex Nylander. So yeah, if you think Levi is a stud, you probably prefer the Sabres threesome. If you don't, ours looks a fair bit more intriguing imo.

- 3rd and final comp of Novikov-Johnson-Wahlberg-Strbak v Tverberg-Villeneuve-Akhy

This is where I really lose the plot on Wheeler's analysis I guess. It's just so much fucking projection with such little data to back any of it up. Villeneuve had a significantly better 20 yr old AHL rookie season than Novikov is having now, and has taken a step forward this season as a 21 yr old but for whatever reason Novikov is the 7th best prospect in the top prospect group in the world and Villenueve is just a guy.

All 4 of these Sabres prospects are doing nothing this year of note other than Johnson who has established himself as a 3rd pairing defender for Buffalo at 22 yrs old and is actually acquitting himself well in super duper sweetheart usage. But it's something. There's not a lot of offensive upside there, but he profiles as a functioning 3rd pairing defender going forward, or as Wheeler puts it

He’s not likely going to be a big special-teams guy in the NHL but I like him to stick as a possession-driving No. 4-6 who is quietly effective at both ends at even strength.
Novikov is a biggish plug who can skate a bit. A bigger Lyubushkin, maybe. Wahlberg was okay just okay in Swedish Jr last season and is having a rough rookie season in the SHL, deeply buried despite being on one of the worst teams in SHL. But he's 18 and 6'3...

Just to give you an idea of a comparable

Pontus Holmberg (Draft: SweJr) .92ppg
Anton Wahlberg (Draft: SweJr) .84ppg

Pontus Holmberg (D+1: SHL) .21ppg
Anton Wahlberg (D+1: SHL) .24ppg

and remember, Holmberg was simply not regarded as even a longshot prospect until his weirdo breakout at 22 yrs old.

If I was forced to pick one of the two groups it would be really hard to not take ours. The 6'2 21 yr old RHD putting up .56ppg in the AHL without significant PP time is easily the most intriguing prospect of the bunch.

The whole Wheeler write up reminds me why I hate prospect media so much. Most of the reasoning behind why he likes whatever prospects is basically humble bragging about seeing them in person at this or that prospect showcase.

I didn’t go to the pandemic U18 worlds in Texas, so I haven’t seen Novikov live in person as much as I have most players on this list, but he impressed me in the brief world juniors in Edmonton prior to cancellation and then really grabbed my attention this fall in Buffalo at the Prospects Challenge, where he had five assists in the two games I watched and didn’t look like a rookie playing in a rookie tournament.

5 assists in 2 games at a fucking rookie camp....or 45 games with nearly absent AHL production available to review before you wrote this article? Tough decision on which weighs more eh? Fucking clownshoes.
 
Back a few years ago when I still subscribed to The Athletic and followed Wheeler more closely, I remember he had a prospect series called “The Gifted”.

And in this series, he picked a selection of mostly pint-sized mid-round picks that he claimed were ackshually fabulous high-end prospects that were each stupendously talented in unique ways.

I wish I could find his list and see if any of those guys at all panned out into anything. The one I do remember is Vitaly Abramov, since that’s the guy Wheeler fanboyed over most often. He’s currently scoring at a 44-point pace in the KHL as a 25 year-old.
 
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are they different people?
 
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