Because it's already been a topic, here's an update on Wheeler's list.
The Sabres have a new wave of prospects coming and their top six or seven are as strong as any group in the league.
theathletic.com
He's crowned the Buffalo Sabres as the top prospect pool in hockey. Which is fun, for reasons I'll get into. I'll split them into Wheeler's tiers as well
1) Zach Benson
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2) Matt Savoie
3) Jiri Kulich
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4) Devon Levi
5) Noah Ostlund
6) Isak Rosen
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7) Nikita Novikov
8) Ryan Johnson
9) Anton Wahlberg
10) Maxim Strbak
That's a nice list with handful of high quality prospects, but it brings up my first issue with Wheeler's list here. Who is and isn't a prospect is kind of fucking arbitrarty. Zach Benson (48 games played) and Ryan Johnson (37 games played) are prospects while Matthew Knies (59 games played), Nick Robertson (71 games), and Pontus Holmberg (69 games) aren't. So while obviously some sort of prospect criteria needs to be created and adhered to, Ryan Johnson is a few months older then Robertson and has played 3 fewer games this season than Robbie has. If Robbie is no longer a prospect, this guy isn't either.
So this kind of leads me to a bit of a thought experiment. What does our prospect list look like with Robertson & Knies involved (Holmberg turns 25 in like, a week...so I get leaving him out) and how would it compare to Wheeler's best group of prospects in the league. For the sake of this exercise, I'm going to rank our top 10 the way I would at the moment, not according to Wheeler's previous ranking. I'll do similar to above, but I'll split them into tiers as I see them.
1) Robertson
2) Knies
3) Cowan
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4) Niemela
5) Hildeby
6) Minten
7) Grebyonkin
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8) Tverberg
9) Villenueve
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10) Akhtyamov
- Comparing the Sabres two top tiers of Benson-Savoie-Kulich vs Robbie-Knies-Cowan is interesting. Robbie and Cowan both put up D+1 production higher than Benson & Savoie did in the CHL
Robertson: 1.89
Cowan:1.76
Benson: 1.63
Savoie: 1.42
and to be clear, they're all midgets. Cowan is easily the biggest of the 4 with easily the most projectable NHL frame if those things matter to you. Benson, Savoie, and our Robbie are all 5'9. This is a skill midget heavy comparison.
Kulich is a bit bigger but still skill midget-ish and is putting up a fantastic 19 yr old season in the AHL with .78ppg. The only red flag here is that he did almost the exact same thing as a 18 yr old last year with .74ppg. If we're comparing him to Knies there's probably more offensive upside here, but he's not going to be 6'3 220 with skill either, which is probably a more desirable player type than a 2C type prospect.
- The next tier comp would be Levi-Ostlund-Rosen v Niemela, Hildeby, Minten, Greby
I think a lot of this comparison is going to come down to how you view Levi. 22 yrs old, .924 sv% in the AHL. But very small for a starting goalie. Saros is really the only guy in the league doing anything of note at this size and by Levi's age was already a NHL backup/1B with a few years of .920+ experience. Ostlund & Rosen are putting up respectable but unspectacular 19-20 yr old seasons in good pro leagues:
(G) Levi D+3 (22 - AHL) .924
(C) Ostlund D+2 (19 - SHL) - .56ppg
(RW) Rosen D+3 (20 - AHL) - .64ppg
Our group:
(D) Niemela D+4 (21 - AHL) .58ppg
(G) Hildeby D+2 (22 - AHL) .912 sv
(C) Minten D+2 (19 - WHL) 1.21ppg
(RW) Greby D+2 (20 - KHL) .62ppg
Setting aside the goalies for a moment, it's hard to call anyone but Grebyonkin the best of that pile performance wise. The comparables for his performance in the KHL are just significantly more impressive than the similar looking offensive performances in the AHL & SHL. For example, Ostlund's best NHL comparables at that 19 yr old production level are Calle Jarnkrok, Anton Lander, and William Karlsson. A solid step down from the russians Greby has matched as a 20 yr old. Rosen's 20 yr old comparables at that scoring level as mostly 4th liners (Jamie McGinn, Paquette, Geekie, Glendening) or AAAA players like Alex Nylander. So yeah, if you think Levi is a stud, you probably prefer the Sabres threesome. If you don't, ours looks a fair bit more intriguing imo.
- 3rd and final comp of Novikov-Johnson-Wahlberg-Strbak v Tverberg-Villeneuve-Akhy
This is where I really lose the plot on Wheeler's analysis I guess. It's just so much fucking projection with such little data to back any of it up. Villeneuve had a significantly better 20 yr old AHL rookie season than Novikov is having now, and has taken a step forward this season as a 21 yr old but for whatever reason Novikov is the 7th best prospect in the top prospect group in the world and Villenueve is just a guy.
All 4 of these Sabres prospects are doing nothing this year of note other than Johnson who has established himself as a 3rd pairing defender for Buffalo at 22 yrs old and is actually acquitting himself well in super duper sweetheart usage. But it's something. There's not a lot of offensive upside there, but he profiles as a functioning 3rd pairing defender going forward, or as Wheeler puts it
He’s not likely going to be a big special-teams guy in the NHL but I like him to stick as a possession-driving No. 4-6 who is quietly effective at both ends at even strength.
Novikov is a biggish plug who can skate a bit. A bigger Lyubushkin, maybe. Wahlberg was okay just okay in Swedish Jr last season and is having a rough rookie season in the SHL, deeply buried despite being on one of the worst teams in SHL. But he's 18 and 6'3...
Just to give you an idea of a comparable
Pontus Holmberg (Draft: SweJr) .92ppg
Anton Wahlberg (Draft: SweJr) .84ppg
Pontus Holmberg (D+1: SHL) .21ppg
Anton Wahlberg (D+1: SHL) .24ppg
and remember, Holmberg was simply not regarded as even a longshot prospect until his weirdo breakout at 22 yrs old.
If I was forced to pick one of the two groups it would be really hard to not take ours. The 6'2 21 yr old RHD putting up .56ppg in the AHL without significant PP time is easily the most intriguing prospect of the bunch.
The whole Wheeler write up reminds me why I hate prospect media so much. Most of the reasoning behind why he likes whatever prospects is basically humble bragging about seeing them in person at this or that prospect showcase.
I didn’t go to the pandemic U18 worlds in Texas, so I haven’t seen Novikov live in person as much as I have most players on this list, but he impressed me in the brief world juniors in Edmonton prior to cancellation and then really grabbed my attention this fall in Buffalo at the Prospects Challenge, where he had five assists in the two games I watched and didn’t look like a rookie playing in a rookie tournament.
5 assists in 2 games at a fucking rookie camp....or 45 games with nearly absent AHL production available to review before you wrote this article? Tough decision on which weighs more eh? Fucking clownshoes.
