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Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

especially when a guy like ulmark is available. we can't afford to gamble another season on goaltending and as much as i like woll he makes matt murray look like an iron man
 



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1c you say?
 
Wes Clark (2021-2023 -11 picks)
NHLers (9.1% Success Rate)
: Knies
High Liklihood NHLers (36.4%): Grebenkin (71% from Hockey Prospecting), Cowen (52%),Hildeby (48%),
Reasonable chance (63.6%): Voit 45%, Moldenhauer (40%), Minten (39%)

John Lilly (2018-2020, - 27 picks)
NHLers (14.8% success rate):
Sandin, Durzi, Holmberg, Robertson
High Liklihood NHLers (14.8%)):
Reasonable chance (22%): Tverberg (42%), Ovinchinkov (42%)

This team looks totally different if Wes Clark had those 27 picks over 3 drafts.
 
Wes Clark (2021-2023 -11 picks)
NHLers (9.1% Success Rate)
: Knies
High Liklihood NHLers (36.4%): Grebenkin (71% from Hockey Prospecting), Cowen (52%),Hildeby (48%),
Reasonable chance (63.6%): Voit 45%, Moldenhauer (40%), Minten (39%)

John Lilly (2018-2020, - 27 picks)
NHLers (14.8% success rate):
Sandin, Durzi, Holmberg, Robertson
High Liklihood NHLers (14.8%)):
Reasonable chance (22%): Tverberg (42%), Ovinchinkov (42%)

This team looks totally different if Wes Clark had those 27 picks over 3 drafts.
Just posted something like this in the other thread but it's nice to see the numbers.

The couple years before that under Lou/Hunter as well - we had 18 picks in 2016 and 2017. Matthews, Liljegren and Woll isn't enough out of that.
 
I always like looking at what else was available at the time when going back to shred draft performance. It's one thing to not like what we got, but the players have to be available at those slots:

I'll show draft slot and good NHL'ers taken in the next 10-15 picks

2015:

34 - Dermott: 35 Aho, 37 Carlo, Blackwood 42, Cernak 43
61/65/68 - Bracco/Nielsen/Dzierkals: Kolesar 69, Cirelli 72, Adin Hill 76, Montembault 77
95 - Lindgren: 96 Nicolas Roy
125 - Timashov: 127 Mikkola, Kaprizov 135
155 - Desrocher: 159 Gavrikov
185 - Korostelev: 194 Matt Roy lol fuck

Especially with the whole trading down bit out the Konency spot, this one fucking hurts. Like, we were right that there were good players to pick between 30-70, we just fucking whiffed on them. This draft was pretty loaded with good NHL'ers and we just did a poor job of locating them.


2016:

31 - Korshkov: 35 Kyrou, 39 Debrincat,
57 - Grundstrom: 66 Fox
72 - Greenway: None
92 - Brooks: None
101 - Middleton: None
122 - Bobylev: None
152 - Walker: 159 Bagel, 162 Bratt
179/182 - Mattinen/Chebykin: None

Korshkov obviously hurts, I never understood the overage bullshit. I want to be a tiny bit upset about Adam Fox, but with how hard he was to sign and how his rights got passed around, he feels like he would have been one that got away anyway. I know this draft is generally considered to be in a knife fight with 2017 as the worst of the bunch but on a deeper look, it's because the draft itself sucked. Adam Fox is the only 3rd worth missing. Ross Colton the only 4th I'd want on our team now. Bratt & Hagel the only other two picks in the draft I'd even want on the team as well.

2017:

59 - Rasanen: 63 Zetterlung, 67 Geekie
110 - Ian Scott: 111 Swayman, 117 Bemstrom, 121 Batherson
124 - Kara: None
141 - Gordeev: None
172/203 - McGregor/O'Connell: None

Another pretty shit draft in the mid to late rounds. The obvious oof is that 110 pick and while you can't predict injuries, we did take a kid with a .895 in the WHL over a kid with a .914 in the USHL. Can't be too surprised it turned out to be the wrong pick.
 
I think the only issue I'd take with doing an evaluation that way is that... I would rather a pick show even a glimmer of something even if they also don't turn out. A bunch of these guys were zeroes right off the bat - they weren't even close to worthy picks.
 
Debrincat was such a clear case to everyone. It's especially funny for a front office that got so (wrongly) criticized for taking undersized skill that they passed on Debrincat, and for an obvious overeach dud like Korshkov too.
 
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