Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!

[LeafGm]

Hoping we can actually start generating some leafs draftees into the lineup full time this year and next. This is causing for really feel the squeeze on those big contracts that we had to use <$1m vets that haven’t done the job as the kids weren’t ready the last couple of years to make a consistent impact.

Yeah, it’s been quite a dry patch since we had all those supporting kids come up around the same time as Matthews, Marner & Nylander (and have since let pretty much all of them go as they’ve become too expensive).

Hopefully we can have a new crop of kids step into the lineup soon as full-time players and make an impact. Because there’s a hard limit to what you can expect out of bargain bin UFA pick-ups like Ritchie, Bunting, Kampf, Kase or Gusev, or Euro “free wallets” like Mikheyev.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, it’s been quite a dry patch since we had all those supporting kids come up around the same time as Matthews, Marner & Nylander (and have since let pretty much all of them go as they’ve become too expensive).

Hopefully we can have a new crop of kids step into the lineup soon as full-time players and make an impact. Because there’s a hard limit to what you can expect out of bargain bin UFA pick-ups like Ritchie, Bunting, Kampf, Kase or Gusev, or Euro “free wallets” like Mikheyev.

In fairness, the drafts most responsible for our lack of complimentary skill did turn out Verhaege, Johnsson, Engvall, Dermott, Grundstrom, & Lilly.

- Verhaege, we traded for Grabner back in 2015 because we needed someone fast to help us tank
- I'd argue that the 2 defenders, Dermott and Lilly have been brought along too slowly and in a lot of systems would be #4 type guys right now
- We gambled and lost on the Johnsson contract, when we probably should have been dragging his dick over broken glass the way we have the other non stud RFA's. We might have been able to drag some cheap 20/40 years out of him had we played hardball.
- Grundstrom was a great asset spend
- Engvall is okay depth

So it's not necessarily that this has been a dry patch necessarily, it's that we traded and/or mismanaged (overpaid, under developed, etc) some of the cheap depth we've had.

If we look at that same grouping of drafts (13-17) for a few conference rivals and omit their best 3 picks like (because adding Matthews, Marner, Nylander kind of defeats the purpose of this analysis):

Boston (Top 3= Pasta, McAvoy, Debrusk): Bjork, Heinen, Donato, Carlo, Lauzon, Zboril, Lindgren
Montreal (LOL)
Tampa (Top 3= Point, Cirelli, Drouin): Erne, DeAngelo, Joseph, Colton, Howden, Hajek, Volkov, Foote
Florida (Top 3 = Barkov, Ekblad, Weegar): Josh Brown, Hawryluk, Lammikko, Malgin, Crouse, Stillman, Borgstrom, Tippett?

Do we really look out of place with (Matthews, Marner, Nylander): Verhaege, Johnsson, Gauthier, Engvall, Dermott, Grundstrom, Liljegren

 

[mbow30]

they didn't turn anything after the first round in 17 or 18. that definitely hurts.

 

[zeke]

In fairness, the drafts most responsible for our lack of complimentary skill did turn out Verhaege, Johnsson, Engvall, Dermott, Grundstrom, & Lilly.

- Verhaege, we traded for Grabner back in 2015 because we needed someone fast to help us tank
- I'd argue that the 2 defenders, Dermott and Lilly have been brought along too slowly and in a lot of systems would be #4 type guys right now
- We gambled and lost on the Johnsson contract, when we probably should have been dragging his dick over broken glass the way we have the other non stud RFA's. We might have been able to drag some cheap 20/40 years out of him had we played hardball.
- Grundstrom was a great asset spend
- Engvall is okay depth

So it's not necessarily that this has been a dry patch necessarily, it's that we traded and/or mismanaged (overpaid, under developed, etc) some of the cheap depth we've had.

If we look at that same grouping of drafts (13-17) for a few conference rivals and omit their best 3 picks like (because adding Matthews, Marner, Nylander kind of defeats the purpose of this analysis):

Boston (Top 3= Pasta, McAvoy, Debrusk): Bjork, Heinen, Donato, Carlo, Lauzon, Zboril, Lindgren
Montreal (LOL)
Tampa (Top 3= Point, Cirelli, Drouin): Erne, DeAngelo, Joseph, Colton, Howden, Hajek, Volkov, Foote
Florida (Top 3 = Barkov, Ekblad, Weegar): Josh Brown, Hawryluk, Lammikko, Malgin, Crouse, Stillman, Borgstrom, Tippett?

Do we really look out of place with (Matthews, Marner, Nylander): Verhaege, Johnsson, Gauthier, Engvall, Dermott, Grundstrom, Liljegren

Not sure this describes the issue properly tho.

The issue is that we are on a 2yr run of 0 impact ELC players - just when we needed them most.

A team like Tampa, for example, won their cup with 3 key impact ELC players, before lucking out into a unique cap situation that let them get away with not having any for their second cup run.

Hopefully this year we can end that streak. Maybe we get lucky and all 3 of Robertson Liljegren Sandin step up at the same time.

 

[MindzEye]

Not sure this describes the issue properly tho.

The issue is that we are on a 2yr run of 0 impact ELC players - just when we needed them most. Hopefully this year we can end that streak.

My point is that "impact ELC players" are pretty fucking rare outside the top end of the draft. If Sandin breaks out, this is the last year of his ELC. Robertson would be nice (still in 1st year of ELC) but him going from 0-impact in his rookie season is unlikely.

 

[MindzEye]

they didn't turn anything after the first round in 17 or 18. that definitely hurts.

It's still too early to expect anything from either draft outside of the 1st round.

From the Rasanen pick onwards, there's only a few players with more than 40 career NHL games and only one that would crack our roster (Drake Batherson), maybe Bemstrom as a 4C. That's it.

For 2018 from Durzi onward, 3 guys have more than 40 games played. Kurashev, Sharangovich, John Leonard. Again, only 1 of the 3 cracks our lineup.

It's just too early on either draft to be expecting anything from picks after the 1st.

 

[zeke]

My point is that "impact ELC players" are pretty fucking rare outside the top end of the draft. If Sandin breaks out, this is the last year of his ELC. Robertson would be nice (still in 1st year of ELC) but him going from 0-impact in his rookie season is unlikely.

I'm talking about literally even quality middle 6 caliber players.

 

[LeafGm]

Yeah, zeke's complaint is what I'm talking about here.

That's not to say our drafting and developing sucks compared to other teams, or that we haven't parlayed some guys we drafted into useful assets. I just want to see some guys on cheap ELC's who we've drafted and developed come in and at least be regular plus-NHL players for us.

 

[MindzEye]

I'm talking about literally even quality middle 6 caliber players.

What playoff teams had any last year?

Carolina had Svech & Necas
Nashville had Tolvanen & Fabbro
Isles had Wahlstrom, sort of
Oilers had Yamamoto
Habs had JK & Suzuki
Avs had Makar
Vegas had Cody Glass if he counts (probably shouldn't)
Wild had Kaprizov though not technically a ELC
Blue had Kyrou & Thomas if you count them as middle 6


I think the takeaways here are that it's more rare than we first assume, and it's mostly high picks who end up being those guys. All but Kaprizov (special case), & Kyrou (35th overall) on that list were 1st rounders and most of them are top 12.

 

[MindzEye]

Yeah, zeke's complaint is what I'm talking about here.

That's not to say our drafting and developing sucks compared to other teams, or that we haven't parlayed some guys we drafted into useful assets. I just want to see some guys on cheap ELC's who we've drafted and developed come in and at least be regular plus-NHL players for us.

Cheap ELC's who weren't 1st round picks are unicorns. What's way more important and way more common is getting your RFA's signed cheap and having them provide an impact for cheap that way.

 

[zeke]

Cheap ELC's who weren't 1st round picks are unicorns. What's way more important and way more common is getting your RFA's signed cheap and having them provide an impact for cheap that way.

you won't find a cup winner that doesn't have quality ELCs unfortunately. other than Tbay last year with their fluke cap situation.

 

[hockeylover]

It's still too early to expect anything from either draft outside of the 1st round.

From the Rasanen pick onwards, there's only a few players with more than 40 career NHL games and only one that would crack our roster (Drake Batherson), maybe Bemstrom as a 4C. That's it.

For 2018 from Durzi onward, 3 guys have more than 40 games played. Kurashev, Sharangovich, John Leonard. Again, only 1 of the 3 cracks our lineup.

It's just too early on either draft to be expecting anything from picks after the 1st.

Not sure I totally agree. I know it's definitely early but there's IMO nothing to even be excited or hopeful about in two drafts which stands out when you look at 2019 and 2020.

 

[mbow30]

It's still too early to expect anything from either draft outside of the 1st round.

From the Rasanen pick onwards, there's only a few players with more than 40 career NHL games and only one that would crack our roster (Drake Batherson), maybe Bemstrom as a 4C. That's it.

For 2018 from Durzi onward, 3 guys have more than 40 games played. Kurashev, Sharangovich, John Leonard. Again, only 1 of the 3 cracks our lineup.

It's just too early on either draft to be expecting anything from picks after the 1st.

Ya, but nothing even looks remotely good. And to top it off they haven’t gotten contributions from sandin or Lilly (regardless of whatever you think the reason is for that).

 

[MindzEye]

Ya, but nothing even looks remotely good. And to top it off they haven’t gotten contributions from sandin or Lilly (regardless of whatever you think the reason is for that).

Oh, those drafts don't look encouraging, don't get me wrong. Their being bad hasn't any impact on our roster yet though. Even if both were slam dunk drafts loaded with intriguing prospects, we wouldn't expect to start seeing any of them until this year and next.

 

[MindzEye]

Not sure I totally agree. I know it's definitely early but there's IMO nothing to even be excited or hopeful about in two drafts which stands out when you look at 2019 and 2020.

It's not about what we think about our hauls from those drafts, it's about when we would expect to start seeing results out of them. Even if we had killed it (spoilers...we didnt'), we wouldn't start seeing players from those drafts (taken outside of the 1st round) until basically now, right now. Even if we look at the 2017 2nd round, there's 2 players in it that would have had any impact at all on our team so far. Jason Robertson and Comtois.

 

[MindzEye]

you won't find a cup winner that doesn't have quality ELCs unfortunately. other than Tbay last year with their fluke cap situation.

Ehhhh...

Having a 21 yr old Vrana on your 4th line is technically having a "quality ELC" but that's not the difference between winning the cup and not.

There's no hard and fast rule other than you need to get good performances out of cheap players, whether those are ELC's, RFA's, or some sort of an old or refurbished veteran.

 

[leafman101]

I agree it’s still a little early on 2017/2018. The problem at this point is more 2015/2016. They had 18 draft picks outside the first round in those 2 drafts and Dermott is the only NHLer.

That was a big missed opportunity. the Hawks had similar huge number of draft pick years in 2003-2005 and came away with Crawford, Byfuglien, Bolland, Bickel, Brouwer and Hjalmarason outside of the 1st round which really was huge for their Cup runs.

Had the Leafs pulled 2-3 NHLers out of those 2 drafts, which probably isn't much higher than the average NHlers expected for 17 picks, that makes a big difference over the last couple of years when we have been tight to the cap.

2017 looks like more of the same with another 7 non 1sts that won’t be NHLers

2018 actually looks kinda interesting with SDA, Hollowell and Holmberg. Maybe Kral too. Wouldn’t be a shock if a couple of those guys got cups of coffee this year.

 

[Volcanologist]

the best thing you can say about the Leafs drafting is at least they haven't screwed up their high picks in more recent years.

the rest has been a fucking decades long wasteland

 

[zeke]

 

[leafman101]

Kokkonen is really interesting. He's a guy that fell in the draft because he is 5'11 and not the best skater. But based on that clip the skating has clearly improved dramatically.

He's played pro since he was 16 in Finland, which isn't easy as a dman.