Leafs' Prospect/Marlies Discussion Thread!
- Thread starter hockeylover
- Start date
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
I get what his scouting philosophy used to be, but imo he's gotten away from it and strayed well towards a generally unqualified eye test over the last couple of years. More and more scouting cliches are leaking into his work as we go forward. He finds himself explaining away statistical evidence over nonsense like performance in short tournaments. He made the calls he did (that really made his name) by ignoring that stuff, and going against the grain by putting a premium on skating, passing, IQ, and production and ignoring size, character, etc.
He fell in love with the smell of his own farts basically. Thought he was a ****ing genius for making some of the calls he made, and has pretty clearly started ignoring the process he used to make them.
hockeylover
Well-known member
I think some of the shine’s come off Lil because Sandin had such a terrific 18 year old season in the AHL and he had a good solid month coming off of that high ankle sprain (notoriously a bitch to recover from) where he didn’t get on the scoresheet at all.
Still think he’ll be an NHL defenseman soon enough though.
Still think he’ll be an NHL defenseman soon enough though.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yeah, and I have no problem with someone pointing at what Sandin is doing and saying the Lilly hasn't come close to that, because he hasn't. Nobody has ever done what Sandin is currently doing. Now, I get that part of that is because 18 yr old defenders don't play in the AHL, but then if we zoom out a little bit and look at league scoring coefficients and 18 yr old performance:
So first, our coefficients:
1 NHL point = .47 AHL, .57 SHL, & .74 KHL points
This is obviously no an exact science but it appears to pass the smell test.
AHL: Nobody has come close. Sandin's .64ppg is way better than anything else we've seen. Lilly's .39 is 2nd, and Slava Voynov's .38 is 3rd.
SHL: Hedman's .49, when adjusted is very close to Sandin's AHL performance. Nobody else in the cap era is close. Erik Brannstrom is 2nd with .34, which when adjusted is in line with Lilly and Voynov's production
KHL: Orlov at .17 is the top of the heap, so even with the adjustment, way off
Liiga: I don't have a coefficient value, but Heiskanen is a pimp with .77. Vatanen 2nd with .55, high draft disappointment Joni Pitkanen 3rd with .39
So yeah, Sandin is doing studly things. Legit #1 type things. Lilly, though obviously over shadowed by Sandin, ranks just fine with a bunch of very good #2-3 type defenders, though a clear step behind the legit studs.
If we include NHL defenders (so the absolute best of the best prospects) this is the list you get that would beat or be in the neighbourhood Sandin's adjusted NHL rating (about .3ppg) since 2000
Dahlin: .55
Ekblad: .48
Bogosian: .40
Chychrun: .29
Haninfin: .28
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hockeylover
Well-known member
Sandin also has 4 points... beast.
hockeylover
Well-known member
Pretty nice that we're a 100 point team in the playoffs three years in a row and we still have multiple players we're itching to see in the lineup from our farm club.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Yep. You'd have a hell of time making be believe that Bracco isn't better than Connor Brown, and than Sandin isn't better than Zaitsev and the back surgery needing version of Jake Gardiner. I can't wait for Mr Lefty/Righty to be given Rielly-Muzzin-Dermott-Sandin and maybe discount Jake (this back surgery is going to be about as poorly timed as it could be for his contract value) and then a choice from a pile of internals (Holl, Lilly, etc) and PTO's
LeafGm
Well-known member
Yep.
The initial thought when it seemed like most of the team were rookies back in 2016/17 was that the pipeline might be dry for a bit. But then over the past couple seasons since then, they've graduated Travis Dermott, Kasperi Kapanen, Andreas Johnsson & Trevor Moore to the NHL full-time (and Freddie the Goat too, I suppose).
And now even after that crop, you have Bracco, Sandin & Liljegren on the horizon.
Makes it so that we can keep losing good UFA's like Bozak, JVR and Gardiner from the team and somehow not take a huge hit to our depth.
I don't think there's really any question you'd rather have Bracco in the lineup instead of Brown right now.
And I've pushed back on zeke's desire for Sandin/Lilly to be called up immediately for most of the year, but yeah, getting hard to argue they wouldn't be an immediate upgrade over a couple of the guys in our lineup right now. At the very least, they have to be making Dubas feel pretty good about his ability to ice a defense core that'll be free of any of Babcock's toys next season.
Preston
MBow30 alt account
J-Bracks has surprised me but I've always said that production is undeniable, regardless of his strengths or weaknesses as a player.
He's a real good one. And the best part is he's exactly what they need. They're loaded with shoot-first guys who aren't the greatest puck distributors, and that includes at center. Having a playmaker to feed Matthews or Naz or kappy is exactly what the doctor ordered. I think the lack of feeders has contributed to some of the disjointed nature of their games this year. If you've got one of marner, willy and bracco on each line, that's the kind of balance I like to see. All three are terrific playmakers.
They'll have to move someone to the lw to create space for him on the top three lines though.
He's a real good one. And the best part is he's exactly what they need. They're loaded with shoot-first guys who aren't the greatest puck distributors, and that includes at center. Having a playmaker to feed Matthews or Naz or kappy is exactly what the doctor ordered. I think the lack of feeders has contributed to some of the disjointed nature of their games this year. If you've got one of marner, willy and bracco on each line, that's the kind of balance I like to see. All three are terrific playmakers.
They'll have to move someone to the lw to create space for him on the top three lines though.
MindzEye
Wayward Ditch Pig
Kappy's speed would play better on the left imo. His most dangerous play of this series was when he was on the left, had half a step, put his shoulder down and went across the front of the net on a rush. Put him on the left and let him use his speed to back off a defender, and then step into the slot and shoot. Basically like a very poor man's Ovechkin.
Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Kappy-Kadri-Bracco
Volcanologist
Well-known member
We do need another skilled winger. Moving Nylander to centre really highlighted this problem. Marleau and Brown are 4th liners at best right now.
Aberdeen
Well-known member
Volcanologist
Well-known member
another skilled midge winger! Babs will be overjoyed
zeke
Well-known member
that is a nutso goal.
