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New Canadian Politics Thread

Hot takes from CTV, winners Trudeau, Blanchet, Bernier.

Losers Singh Scheer.

Abysmal, May. Learn french.
 
Except that might not be enough to have confidence of Parliament, according to poll tracker.

Possible coalition government: CPC and Bloc.
 
Quebec, once again, the province making the late shift in voting intentions.

Shifting from Liberal to Bloc.

Trudeau is getting destroyed over bill 21, and Scheer is getting destroyed over his energy corridor, and Singh is getting destroyed for wearing a turban.

The first french debate showed Quebec that Scheer is a pro pipeline pushing tool, the second french debate showed that Trudeau is coming after bill 21.

Never count the Bloc out.
 
lecoqsportif said:
Except that might not be enough to have confidence of Parliament, according to poll tracker.

Possible coalition government: CPC and Bloc.
Click to expand...


I can't imagine that the CPC base would be happy with their party forming a government (informal or otherwise) with Quebec separatists. After all, that was the cudgel Stephen Harper used to crush the ill-fated Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition that tried to oust him when he was a minority PM.

And besides, isn't the Bloc a fairly left-leaning party?
 
LeafGm said:
I can't imagine that the CPC base would be happy with their party forming a government (informal or otherwise) with Quebec separatists. After all, that was the cudgel Stephen Harper used to crush the ill-fated Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition that tried to oust him when he was a minority PM.

And besides, isn't the Bloc a fairly left-leaning party?
Click to expand...
Bloc is a left leaning nationalist party.

The Conservative stance on pipelines alone will kill any potential partnership.

The bloc is simply going to get too many seats for any other party to effectively govern. CPC has no friends outside the one seat the PPC might win and the LPC GRN NDP alliance might not be enough.
 
Poll tracker has the Liberals in free fall.

Wonder what the logic behind going hard after bill 21 was when

A) The rest of Canada couldn't care less what Quebec does.

B) The bill is ridiculously popular in Quebec.
 
The bloc is always just about the worst thing to happen in Canadian politics. Nobody wants to be seen as working with them, and their policies are all over the place that even if people weren't afraid of being tagged as separatist sympathizers, they hate half the policy positions of every other party.

But yeah, with them surging now apparently, it's going to be virtually impossible for anyone to form a government. If things ended up like the CBC tracker has it, 139-137 Lib with 33 BQ, 24 NDP, 4 Green, and 1 PPC, basically any agreement has to include the Bloc.

Although still a little bit of time left for things to move a little more. And the margins of error are still so massive. Like the CBC Tracker has the NDP between 4 and 50 seats, the Libs between 92 and 203.
 
UWHabs said:
The bloc is always just about the worst thing to happen in Canadian politics. Nobody wants to be seen as working with them, and their policies are all over the place that even if people weren't afraid of being tagged as separatist sympathizers, they hate half the policy positions of every other party.

But yeah, with them surging now apparently, it's going to be virtually impossible for anyone to form a government. If things ended up like the CBC tracker has it, 139-137 Lib with 33 BQ, 24 NDP, 4 Green, and 1 PPC, basically any agreement has to include the Bloc.

Although still a little bit of time left for things to move a little more. And the margins of error are still so massive. Like the CBC Tracker has the NDP between 4 and 50 seats, the Libs between 92 and 203.
Click to expand...


What those numbers tell me is that there's a whole hell of a lot of ridings where it's going to be a 3-4 party horse race for who wins the seat. And that we're probably going to have a lot of MP's getting elected with well under 40% of the vote in their ridings.

It's a shame the Liberals were such cowards when it came to back-tracking their electoral reform promise. They should have just said "to hell with it", and rammed through ranked balloting in time for this election.
 
Most of the polling is garbage but it does appear that the vote is shifting from Liberal to NDP over the past week or so.

This probably explains Singh announcing that he'd support a Liberal government. That would help mitigate concerns people might have about a Con win, but it also really turns off people on the left (lots of hate for liberals over here).
 
The Bloc has a platform, but they are probably the most pragmatic of the smaller parties in terms of ideology. If they hold the balance of power, don’t be shocked if they enter into an informal coalition with the CPC.
 
lecoqsportif said:
The Bloc has a platform, but they are probably the most pragmatic of the smaller parties in terms of ideology. If they hold the balance of power, don’t be shocked if they enter into an informal coalition with the CPC.
Click to expand...
They won't allow any pipelines in Quebec, which is intolerable to the conservatives
 
And poll tracker has Conservatives ahead now, as the liberal vote in quebec continues to crater.

Its looking like the liberals may be shut out outside of montreal, with most of the ridings outside of montreal and quebec city going to the Bloc.

I bet if Trudeau had a time machine he would go back and embrace bill 21 and shout from the rooftops that he wouldn't touch it.
 
Altair said:
And poll tracker has Conservatives ahead now, as the liberal vote in quebec continues to crater.

Its looking like the liberals may be shut out outside of montreal, with most of the ridings outside of montreal and quebec city going to the Bloc.

I bet if Trudeau had a time machine he would go back and embrace bill 21 and shout from the rooftops that he wouldn't touch it.
Click to expand...

The thing is speaking out against bill 21 wasn't a completely bad strategy. There's a lot of new Canadians in the Toronto and Vancouver area that care about how they are treated once they come to Canada and Trudeau's opposition to bill 21 probably made them feel better about voting for the Liberals.

But yes, the Bloc has the potential to be king maker, which means we are in for a minority government with about a 18 to 36 month shelf life. It reminds of why I wouldn't want proportional representation. So many parties thinking they are king makers makes for very unstable long term governments.
 
LeafGm said:
What those numbers tell me is that there's a whole hell of a lot of ridings where it's going to be a 3-4 party horse race for who wins the seat. And that we're probably going to have a lot of MP's getting elected with well under 40% of the vote in their ridings.

It's a shame the Liberals were such cowards when it came to back-tracking their electoral reform promise. They should have just said "to hell with it", and rammed through ranked balloting in time for this election.
Click to expand...

The problem with changing the electoral system to ranked balloting is that the change would have been held up in the courts for years. Just look at what happened to senate reform.
 
ColinM said:
The thing is speaking out against bill 21 wasn't a completely bad strategy. There's a lot of new Canadians in the Toronto and Vancouver area that care about how they are treated once they come to Canada and Trudeau's opposition to bill 21 probably made them feel better about voting for the Liberals.

But yes, the Bloc has the potential to be king maker, which means we are in for a minority government with about a 18 to 36 month shelf life. It reminds of why I wouldn't want proportional representation. So many parties thinking they are king makers makes for very unstable long term governments.
Click to expand...
It was a completely bonehead strategy.

The liberal vote isn't picking up anywhere else, and its tanking in Quebec. They aren't going to replace the losses in Quebec anywhere else.

The liberals had a simple strategy to get a majority or strong minority. Win ontario. Win Quebec. Win the Atlantic provinces.

They just tossed Quebec to the bloc.
 
Went to vote today.

Zero lineup. Looks like turnout will be down, which probably favors the Conservatives.
 
Just had a dinner with 16 other people.
All 16 have polled early for various reasons.
All voted liberal last time.
Not one voted liberal this time..
Liberals are dying. ......
 
uncus said:
Just had a dinner with 16 other people.
All 16 have polled early for various reasons.
All voted liberal last time.
Not one voted liberal this time..
Liberals are dying. ......
Click to expand...
You know its bad when Zeke and Mindz stop posting here.

Yeah, the campaign by Trudeau has been bad. In 2015 he was full of energy, blitzing through canada, doing 3-4 stops, giving passionate speeches, talking like a real human being.

This year he's doing on or two stops, being a talking point robot harper would be proud of with little to no vision for the future.

Then he chucked a grenade in quebec. I predicted a liberal minority. They will be lucky to get that.
 
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