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New Canadian Politics Thread

lecoqsportif

Well-known member
Let’s see if the 905 stampedes to the CPC if the Bloc continues to surge. There was a glimmer of that in the most recent poll tracker.

If it stays largely red, we’ll have a very weak minority government with the Bloc holding the cards. They’re trending towards 40 seats.
 

Altair

Well-known member
Let’s see if the 905 stampedes to the CPC if the Bloc continues to surge. There was a glimmer of that in the most recent poll tracker.

If it stays largely red, we’ll have a very weak minority government with the Bloc holding the cards. They’re trending towards 40 seats.
If that happens I wonder if there is a stampede to the liberals from green and NDP supporters scared of Scheer.
 

UWHabs

Active member
To be clear, I'm saying the liberal vote in quebec is collapsing and turnout might be down.
Apparently advance poll turnout is up 25% compared to 2015. Not sure that will translate to E-Day, but it might not be as dire as some random anecdotes above. Still have no idea what's going to happen next week, stuff is moving around that hard to say even how the overall numbers will end up, never mind how they translate to seats.
 

ColinM

Member
Strange, the NDP might end up having fewer seats at the end of this election compared to what they had at the end of the previous election, yet what they are experiencing is still a surge. I guess it's a function of a very low baseline.
 

Altair

Well-known member
Seeing some numbers on reddit that the LPC has been killing it in the advanced polling.

Big MOE, but both the LPC and CPC are out performing their poll numbers.
 

Guibs

Active member
There has always been a "prime à l'urne" like we say here to the liberals. A lot of people will bitch about them but once they are alone, behind the curtain with the voting ballot in hand, a lot of people will just end up voting for what they know and are confortable with. While I'm not saying the polls are wrong, the Liberals always do a bit better than what the polls gives them.

I'll be shocked if we don't end up with a liberal minority goverment. At least to me, that would be better than having Scheer. I mean, seriously, the CPC had to decided between Scheer and Stupid Bernier. That's just tell you how in bad shape the party is.
 

zeke

Well-known member
The other thing is that Singh is just an impressive dude, much more impressive than the other candidates. Not a huge surprise that the campaigning and debates have seen his stock soar now that he's visible again.

Too bad he spent the last 2yrs in hiding.
 

Altair

Well-known member
The other thing is that Singh is just an impressive dude, much more impressive than the other candidates. Not a huge surprise that the campaigning and debates have seen his stock soar now that he's visible again.

Too bad he spent the last 2yrs in hiding.
Yes.

He has done a great job finishing off the orange crush that Layton built in quebec and bringing them back to traditional 3rd place territory. Which is still a improvement considering the greens were on track to beat them at the start of the campaign.
 

Altair

Well-known member
That said, poll tracker has LPC 135 NDP 34. 169.

170 for majority, one of the LPC or NDP need to outperform the poll tracker and they can inch across.

34 MPs of a majority, that's what 3 -4 cabinet positions?
 

worm

Well-known member
Refresh my memory on the Harper minority. I assume NDP and Libs did not have enough combined to have a majority?
 

LeafGm

Well-known member
Refresh my memory on the Harper minority. I assume NDP and Libs did not have enough combined to have a majority?

Correct.

Harper had more seats than the Libs & NDP put together, but was in a minority situation because the Bloc still had a sizeable contingent of MP’s at the time.
 
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