New Canadian Politics Thread
- Thread starter MindzEye
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anne25
Well-known member
Don't know if his move will help or hinder the Conservatives but good or bad it was obvious Bernier didn't fit in with the present Conservative Party.
While listening to him this morning he did indicate that immigration was not the problem but rather than the emphasis on diversity rather than inclusion was to him not a good idea. I'm guessing he favours more the American melting pot system.
For his complete statement.
http://www.maximebernier.com/why_i_am_leaving_the_conservative_party_of_canada
While listening to him this morning he did indicate that immigration was not the problem but rather than the emphasis on diversity rather than inclusion was to him not a good idea. I'm guessing he favours more the American melting pot system.
For his complete statement.
http://www.maximebernier.com/why_i_am_leaving_the_conservative_party_of_canada
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Bernier is a nobody so Trudeau doesn't have to worry about him. Given Singh has proven to be a non-entity, in the end it will come down to Trudeau vs Bucky.
Altair
Well-known member
Trudeau has nothing to fear from Bernier. Singh is going to split the left vote, but that's a given.
But now Sheer needs to worry about Bernier. Even if Bernier only grabs 3-4 percent of the vote nationwide, that's going to be coming out of the pool that would have been voting CPC, probably enough to let the liberals win easy.
His only appeal could be Quebec where Bucky won't do well anyway and prairies where it won't matter.
Creating a party and running 338 candidates in a year won't be easy.
Creating a party and running 338 candidates in a year won't be easy.
UWHabs
Well-known member
Not sure Bernier will pull that, though. I mean, he's enough of a name to make headlines, but his latest wacky rants don't really fit nicely in a party.
It's really a question of whether he's simply a small movement for people who don't like Scheer to park a vote, or if he can actually get enough traction to pull votes.
LeafGm
Well-known member
Yeah, that's the thing.
If he does actually create another legitimate national party and attract 337 reasonably qualified candidates for office in the next calendar year, then he could be a problem for Scheer. There's a lot of ridings where even a small siphoning of the votes on the right wing could be disasterous---just look at the way the Reform/Alliance & PC's both got demolished in the polls in central Canada during the 90's.
But I'd be really surprised if Bernier actually had the capability to pull off a task like that.
Altair
Well-known member
If he had joined the libertarians and taken over he would have the party infrastructure in place and a bunch of candidates already, making this job a little easier to pull off.
As it stands, he's starting from scratch with a little over a year to go before the next election.
Macron did it but he had more time.
UWHabs
Well-known member
I would have to imagine that he'll end up joining with the libertarians. Nothing he said today really rules that out.
LeafGm
Well-known member
I'm not sure that Bernier signing on with the Libertarian Party of Canada would actually be any better for him than starting off from scratch.
Prior to the 2015 elections, they barely fielded any candidates. And even in 2015, they only fielded 72, and ended up with 0.21% of the vote:
So, how much of an organization would a party like that really have in place? And how many of those 72 names on the ballot would be legitimate candidates, instead of people reminiscent of the waitresses & students who were just random names on the ballot for the NDP when Quebec got swept by Jack Layton's "Orange Wave"?
Better to start fresh than take on the baggage of a party with a 40-year history of being a fringe, crackpot loser of a political party that can barely draw flies in an election.
Prior to the 2015 elections, they barely fielded any candidates. And even in 2015, they only fielded 72, and ended up with 0.21% of the vote:
So, how much of an organization would a party like that really have in place? And how many of those 72 names on the ballot would be legitimate candidates, instead of people reminiscent of the waitresses & students who were just random names on the ballot for the NDP when Quebec got swept by Jack Layton's "Orange Wave"?
Better to start fresh than take on the baggage of a party with a 40-year history of being a fringe, crackpot loser of a political party that can barely draw flies in an election.
Altair
Well-known member
Hard to have a history when nobody knows who you are.I'm not sure that Bernier signing on with the Libertarian Party of Canada would actually be any better for him than starting off from scratch.
Prior to the 2015 elections, they barely fielded any candidates. And even in 2015, they only fielded 72, and ended up with 0.21% of the vote:
So, how much of an organization would a party like that really have in place? And how many of those 72 names on the ballot would be legitimate candidates, instead of people reminiscent of the waitresses & students who were just random names on the ballot for the NDP when Quebec got swept by Jack Layton's "Orange Wave"?
Better to start fresh than take on the baggage of a party with a 40-year history of being a fringe, crackpot loser of a political party that can barely draw flies in an election.
they are more non descript that the guy Habsy voted for to ensure Trump was elected...
LeafGm
Well-known member
According to The Washington Post and a number of other outlets, Mexico & the US are set to announce their agreement on their portion of the new NAFTA deal.
Under the current rules, the US needs to provide Congress with 90-days notice of a new trade agreement. So with the clock ticking before the mid-terms, and with Mexico also apparently in a rush to get this deal done in enough time to allow Mexico's outgoing President to sign it into law, presumably negotiators are going to turn around and quickly try and ram this agreement down Canada's throat as a "done deal".
So, it'll be curious to see how this goes, and interesting to find out just how bad Mexico's rolled over and ****ed over Canada in the two-party negotiations they and the US froze Canada out of for the past number of weeks. I also wonder if there's really any benefit to Canada playing ball here, instead of really digging in their heels and forcing this process past the US midterms.
Under the current rules, the US needs to provide Congress with 90-days notice of a new trade agreement. So with the clock ticking before the mid-terms, and with Mexico also apparently in a rush to get this deal done in enough time to allow Mexico's outgoing President to sign it into law, presumably negotiators are going to turn around and quickly try and ram this agreement down Canada's throat as a "done deal".
So, it'll be curious to see how this goes, and interesting to find out just how bad Mexico's rolled over and ****ed over Canada in the two-party negotiations they and the US froze Canada out of for the past number of weeks. I also wonder if there's really any benefit to Canada playing ball here, instead of really digging in their heels and forcing this process past the US midterms.
Altair
Well-known member
Well, unexpected.
https://www.thepostmillennial.com/maxime-berniers-newly-announced-party-polling-at-13-nationwide/
I figured Bernier would pull support from the Conservatives, and he is, but to be pulling support from the liberals as well is interesting.
Also, 13 percent for a yet to be formed party is huge. I'm curious if this keeps up. I'm tempted to write him off, but if he starts pulling in support from all parties and runs a populist campaign I can see him starting to gather some traction.
https://www.thepostmillennial.com/maxime-berniers-newly-announced-party-polling-at-13-nationwide/
I figured Bernier would pull support from the Conservatives, and he is, but to be pulling support from the liberals as well is interesting.
Also, 13 percent for a yet to be formed party is huge. I'm curious if this keeps up. I'm tempted to write him off, but if he starts pulling in support from all parties and runs a populist campaign I can see him starting to gather some traction.
Altair
Well-known member
As long as they didn't cave on the sunset clause, I don't think Canada cares much about the auto sector stuff or wages of employees.
Mexico USA issues are not USA Canada issues in large part. And Mexico has not dog in the supply management fight.
If I had to guess, the Americans try to present Canada with a done deal, Canada starts to negotiate, Mexico stays out of it, Americans get frustrated, Canada gets hit with 25 percent tariffs on the auto sector, Canada bails out the auto sector.
LeafGm
Well-known member
I guess in retrospect it shouldn't be surprising.
In 2015, the Liberals went from the 3rd place party to a big-tent home for any voter who saw getting the Harper Conservatives out of office as a priority, and were looking for the best instrument with which to accomplish that. So it's not like everyone who made up the 39.5% of the voting public who supported the Liberals was going to be an ideologically pure supporter of the Liberals.
As for the polling numbers for "the Maxime Bernier party", I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in them right now. At the moment, it's a party that doesn't actually exist, without any kind of platform and without any other members or candidates, aside from Bernier himself. So that makes it an ideal blank canvas for a wide swath of potential voters to project their hopes and dreams onto.
When and if Bernier starts bringing in other actual humans to represent the party, and starts articulating some kind of concrete platform, that 13% may turn out to be a group of people who largely don't agree with each or Maxime Bernier on much else besides the fact that they're not entirely satisfied with any of the other Federal parties on the ballot.
At least prior to the bilateral US/Mexico negotiations, Mexico was as opposed to a "sunset clause" as Canada.
Since then, Mexico has been conspicuously silent on the issue.
As for your prediction, I wouldn't really be surprised. On the one hand, I think Trump and the Republicans badly want a "win" before the mid-terms. But I think they'd be just as happy using Canada and its Liberal government as a scapegoat, particularly with the personal antipathy Trump's developed towards Trudeau.
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UWHabs
Well-known member
Yeah, I don't put a lot of faith in the "unnamed party" poll. You're going to get a lot of people who are going to be like "I hate supply management, so I'll support him" or "I like a libertarian party, I could vote for him" and then when it comes out and there's a lot more weird policies in there, or it comes out anti-immigrant, people aren't going to stick around. I mean, for him better to start there than at like 3%, sure, but until they actually have more than 1 member, I don't trust any polling with them in it.