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New Canadian Politics Thread

Canada should not, under any circumstances, give in to Trump and his gang of thugs. If they hit us, hit them back twice as hard. Start looking to other countries to make deals with.
 
UWHabs said:
Yeah, I don't put a lot of faith in the "unnamed party" poll. You're going to get a lot of people who are going to be like "I hate supply management, so I'll support him" or "I like a libertarian party, I could vote for him" and then when it comes out and there's a lot more weird policies in there, or it comes out anti-immigrant, people aren't going to stick around. I mean, for him better to start there than at like 3%, sure, but until they actually have more than 1 member, I don't trust any polling with them in it.
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I don't think Bernier has been come across this anti immigrant bend by accident. Note that he wasn't very anti immigrant during his leadership run, nowhere near kellie leitch.

But two polls have come out as of late, one saying that the majority of Canadians from all parties view the illegal immigration at the border as a crisis, and that Canada is taking in more than they can handle, and a second, more recent one which has show a large shift regarding how Canadians view immigration, with a majority now saying that current immigration levels are too high.

Now Canadians aren't going to buy into blatant racism, like a barbaric cultural practices hotline, but it's clear that attitudes are shifting right now regarding immigration, and if a new bernier party can tap into that without going off the rails, that alone gives him a large baked in level of support, one that draws from all three parties.

Canadians have traditionally been very supportive of immigration, but at the same time we have been brutally picky about who we allow to become Canadians. With the amount of uncontrolled migration happening at the border, it appears Canadians are beginning to sour on immigration on a whole. Bernier, with his recent forays into the subject of immigration, going where the traditional parties are afraid to touch, might tap into that sentiment.
 
MapleLeafBlueJayBoy said:
Canada should not, under any circumstances, give in to Trump and his gang of thugs. If they hit us, hit them back twice as hard. Start looking to other countries to make deals with.
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Agreed, but Canada is rather limited now.

There is a trade deal with Europe in place.

There is a trade deal with the Pacific countries in place.

Who's left of worth?

Africa is still poor, and corrupt in many places. The few places that are not wont be worth much in terms of bilateral trade.

South America is really just Brazil left, with TPP including Chile and Peru. Brazil is a direct competitor in the aerospace industry, so I wonder if there is even a deal they will be open to there.

China is in no hurry to deal with Canada, nor can Canada deal with China without being accused of allowing Chinese goods to enter the USA via Canada, opening Canada up to more potential trade action.

Russia...Yeah,no.

Middle east. After the Saudi Fiasco, no.
 
Altair said:
As long as they didn't cave on the sunset clause, I don't think Canada cares much about the auto sector stuff or wages of employees.

Mexico USA issues are not USA Canada issues in large part. And Mexico has not dog in the supply management fight.

If I had to guess, the Americans try to present Canada with a done deal,
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U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who was congratulated by Trump for reaching the deal with Mexico, said they hoped to conclude talks with Canada by Friday in order to comply with the 90-day window required by Congress before a deal could be signed with the outgoing Mexican administration
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Altair said:
Canada starts to negotiate, Mexico stays out of it, Americans get frustrated, Canada gets hit with 25 percent tariffs on the auto sector, Canada bails out the auto sector.
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Will Canada can be part of it? "We'll see," Trump said, suggesting that if Canada is prepared to negotiate fairly it should be simple. He also said the U.S. would put automotive tariffs on Canadian imports if talks don't succeed.
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I nailed it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-us-mexico-progress-monday-1.4800182
 
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Altair said:
I nailed it.
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Yep.

And it kind of looks like they actually want the talks with Canada to fail. Because what they're proposing is an absolutely preposterous timeline. The US and Mexico have been off on their own negotiating for weeks without Canada at the table, and now Canada's supposed to both review their agreement and complete their own negotiations with both parties all within a whole 3-4 days before signing on?

That's the US all but saying "the negotiations are over, the deal is done, take it or leave it". It's not going to happen. Canada won't sign on, Trump/Lighthizer will scapegoat Trudeau & Freeland for the failure of the talks, Canada will get slapped with auto tarrifs and then Trump will declare the whole mess a victory.
 
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LeafGm said:
Yep.

And it kind of looks like they actually want the talks with Canada to fail. Because what they're proposing is an absolutely preposterous timeline. The US and Mexico have been off on their own negotiating for weeks without Canada at the table, and now Canada's supposed to both review their agreement and complete their own negotiations with both parties all within a whole 3-4 days before signing on?

That's the US all but saying "the negotiations are over, the deal is done, take it or leave it". It's not going to happen. Canada won't sign on, Trump/Lighthizer will scapegoat Trudeau & Freeland for the failure of the talks, Canada will get slapped with auto tarrifs and then Trump will declare the whole mess a victory.
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The only hope, and it's a ever dimming and diminishing hope, is that congress finds their collective spine and reassert their authority over trade matters, in this case, NAFTA was ratified by Congress, is would need to be revoked by congress, but I bet Trump does it unilaterally and the Republicans simply accept it as a fait accompli.

Either way, Canada is going to be in for a world of hurt.
 
The silver lining here is that Mexican Presidents can only serve one term and AMLO dislikes all things Trump. Don't be shocked if any agreement Pena is rushing to sign before AMLO takes office turns into toilet paper on day 1 of the AMLO Presidency.

He's been on record saying things like "no nafta is better than a bad nafta", he wants foreign investment in Pemex stopped, etc. As well, AMLO has a ton of pull in the senate, despite not being in power yet and any bilateral agreement will have to get through the mexican senate.

Basically, I'll see it when I believe it.
 
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MindzEye said:
The silver lining here is that Mexican Presidents can only serve one term and AMLO dislikes all things Trump. Don't be shocked if any agreement Pena is rushing to sign before AMLO takes office turns into toilet paper on day 1 of the AMLO Presidency.

He's been on record saying things like "no nafta is better than a bad nafta", he wants foreign investment in Pemex stopped, etc. As well, AMLO has a ton of pull in the senate, despite not being in power yet and any bilateral agreement will have to get through the mexican senate.

Basically, I'll see it when I believe it.
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They basically need everything signed by the end of this week to get it in before the new Prez takes office. Timeline is really tight on that.
 
I am choked at Mexico for kind of stabbing us in the back if they did agree to a new NAFTA without us being included in the process. I get they have to look out for their own, but Donnie was waiting for one of the two of us to crack and we didn't, they did. He will screw them over too.
 
Although from what I just read on CBC.ca, there really are not big changes. Donnie is trumpeting like he had some huge victory but there isn't much to it.
 
TheCountofMonteCristo said:
I am choked at Mexico for kind of stabbing us in the back if they did agree to a new NAFTA without us being included in the process. I get they have to look out for their own, but Donnie was waiting for one of the two of us to crack and we didn't, they did. He will screw them over too.
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An outgoing President who has long been in the pocket of big business is cracking. The incoming President is a different breed than Pena is. Like I said earlier, I'll believe this when I see it play out. AMLO has no love for Trump at all, and is in heavy support of a number of trade items that would be complete non starters for the US.
 
I'm not worried at all. Pretty sure Canada and Mexico had their own communication channels through the entire process.

Also, Trump can spout off all he wants about the US-Mexico deal but:

He cannot replace NAFTA with US-Mexico Trade Agreement without first: 1) terminating NAFTA (which requires 6 months notice + Congress), 2) notifying Congress of start of negotiation, 3) notifying Congress of text of agreement +90 days.

Plus if there is no deal with Canada, it's not clear many autos (or other proudcts) will meet the rule of origin if all the inputs +steel + alum from Canada no longer count. If Canada is not in the deal, there is no way to cumulate inputs across 3 countries.


You can follow @JAHillmanGULaw for more legalese
 
MindzEye said:
So you predicted that Donald would do nothing of any real substance and then treat it live a massive victory?

Ballsy call man, ballsy call.
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lmao.

Wall Street Journal:

“We’ll reserve judgment until we see the fine print,” the editorial read, “but on first inspection this is half a Nafta that contains some improvements but is notably worse in many ways.”

“The new deal has many problems, however, not least that it excludes Canada,” the editorial read. “U.S. Trade Rep Robert Lighthizer used the desire of Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto to sign a deal before he leaves office to raise the negotiating pressure on Canada. Mr. Trump implied Monday that either Ottawa signs on or he’ll slap a 25% tariff on cars made in Canada.

“Canada handled that threat with prudent restraint.”

“We’re glad to see Mr. Trump step back from the suicide of Nafta withdrawal, but on the public evidence so far his new deal is worse.”
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Trump doesn't care about the actual terms of the deal. He just needs to be able to brag about it. And, let's be honest, his brags would not be based on the written terms anyways.
 
Wayward DP said:
Trump doesn't care about the actual terms of the deal. He just needs to be able to brag about it. And, let's be honest, his brags would not be based on the written terms anyways.
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I mean, they'll sign a deal, and he'll brag that because of the deal they can lift the various tariffs that he imposed.
 
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